Potential severe weather for Florida Sun. - Mon.
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:06 am
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081420
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006
.UPDATE...MORNING SUFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. SOUTH FLORIDA WINDS ARE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO THE MID 20S. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
DECENT SHEAR PROFILES...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT SE FLOW AND 15 TO 20 KNOT
SW FLOW. MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE VALUES AROUND A RESPECTABLE
1700 J/KG. MOISTURE REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST SHY OF ONE INCH...WITH DRY AIR DOMINANT
ABOVE 7 KFT. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER...MOSTLY CIRRUS WITH SCATTERED CU DECKS. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 90 MARK WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
PLAUSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO UP THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE. FOR
INTERIOR AREAS...WILL INCREASE TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES UP...AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...UPPER DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE UPDATE...SETTLEMENT POINT CMAN IS BLOW AROUND 15 TO 17 KNOTS.
COASTAL SITES ALONG PALM BEACH COAST ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT AREA
WITH WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH. WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ARE LIKELY A LITTLE
HIGHER...MORE IN LINE WITH SETTLEMENT POINT. WILL INTRODUCE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR PALM BEACH WATERS FOR TODAY.
56
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLANES AS WE SPEAK.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
BELIEVE NAM IS A BIT TO SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. IN ANY CASE...BOTH MODELS FILL UP THE UPPER LOW BUT KEEP THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING/DIGGING SOUTHEAST WITH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SQUALL LINE FEATURE
AND MOVE IT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS/LAKE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING(NAM LATER THAN GFS) AND THROUGH ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. ACTUAL FROPA LATER THAT EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION (POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER) THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROVIDING THE FORCING. GFS ALSO SHOWS PRETTY HIGH OMEGA
VALUES. WL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX IN THE HWO. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPS AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER, LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO WORK AGAINST IT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES TROUGH THE AREA AND INCREASE TO 20 + KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE WITH GULF STREAM SEAS REACHING
7 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING BUILDING UP
THROUGH MONDAY. GULF WATERS WILL DO LIKEWISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MEAN RH VALUES
COULD FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 30% FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER FLORIDA/GULF KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
FROM APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
47
Any thoughts on the severe potential Sunday through Monday for Florida?
FXUS62 KMFL 081420
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006
.UPDATE...MORNING SUFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. SOUTH FLORIDA WINDS ARE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO THE MID 20S. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
DECENT SHEAR PROFILES...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT SE FLOW AND 15 TO 20 KNOT
SW FLOW. MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE VALUES AROUND A RESPECTABLE
1700 J/KG. MOISTURE REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST SHY OF ONE INCH...WITH DRY AIR DOMINANT
ABOVE 7 KFT. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER...MOSTLY CIRRUS WITH SCATTERED CU DECKS. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 90 MARK WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
PLAUSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO UP THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE. FOR
INTERIOR AREAS...WILL INCREASE TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES UP...AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...UPPER DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE UPDATE...SETTLEMENT POINT CMAN IS BLOW AROUND 15 TO 17 KNOTS.
COASTAL SITES ALONG PALM BEACH COAST ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT AREA
WITH WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH. WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ARE LIKELY A LITTLE
HIGHER...MORE IN LINE WITH SETTLEMENT POINT. WILL INTRODUCE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR PALM BEACH WATERS FOR TODAY.
56
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLANES AS WE SPEAK.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
BELIEVE NAM IS A BIT TO SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. IN ANY CASE...BOTH MODELS FILL UP THE UPPER LOW BUT KEEP THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING/DIGGING SOUTHEAST WITH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SQUALL LINE FEATURE
AND MOVE IT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS/LAKE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING(NAM LATER THAN GFS) AND THROUGH ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. ACTUAL FROPA LATER THAT EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION (POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER) THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROVIDING THE FORCING. GFS ALSO SHOWS PRETTY HIGH OMEGA
VALUES. WL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX IN THE HWO. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPS AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER, LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO WORK AGAINST IT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES TROUGH THE AREA AND INCREASE TO 20 + KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE WITH GULF STREAM SEAS REACHING
7 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING BUILDING UP
THROUGH MONDAY. GULF WATERS WILL DO LIKEWISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MEAN RH VALUES
COULD FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 30% FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER FLORIDA/GULF KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
FROM APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
47
Any thoughts on the severe potential Sunday through Monday for Florida?
