STORM2K

Folks, I can't reiterate this enough. If this pattern regime begins to exist thru the spring and into the summer months this is gonna be one bear of a hot summer, and a potentially very dry one too. Also, WRT to the aspect of potential tropical cyclone landfalls, the pattern regime may end up keeping a good majority of tropical cyclones at bay this year (as in staying offshore, in which so many areas need a much quieter time in that regards.)

Already just locally in Charleston, SC we've already seen 90º this year, and are heading in that direction starting tomorrow for the next couple of days. This is a pattern nightmare with regards to heat waves and droughts, with waves of ridge riding thunderstorms across the zenith of the ridge, and generally are of the MCS or MCC variety and generally very severe at times.

Unfortunately, for people that are lacking in rainfall such as the Eastern US now a slight drought is now underway, the overall regime may deteriorate in regards to getting sufficient rainfalls before the summer time begins. Bottom line, we need rainfalls across the parched areas, otherwise, dry conditions begat dry conditions and tend to feed upon itself and thusly the ground and surrounding air becomes more readily hotter (drier air heats more quickly than humid air b/c of evaporational processes).

SF

Stormsfury wrote:Also, WRT to the aspect of potential tropical cyclone landfalls, the pattern regime may end up keeping a good majority of tropical cyclones at bay this year (as in staying offshore, in which so many areas need a much quieter time in that regards.)

Would that be because of a Great Plains ridge (resulting in oceanic troughing)?

Good lord, I hope not; none of the long range models hint at a Death Ridge. So far the pattern has been pretty active across the great plains, especially considered it's still mid April.

just hope this kind of ridge does not develop (but unfortunately could happen during the summertime) in the dead of summer, otherwise the triple digit heat felt in TX will be a mere taste of what's to come this summer ... such a ridge could see high temperatures rivalling the brutality of the Summer of 1986.

SF

I think this could be the hottest summer to ever hit the US over the last 100 years. But we will see...

Things are getting worse and worse every day down here. We haven't had a drop of rain in April, and since Feb. 25 have only had .18" of rain. Count in the continuing dry spell from 2005 and we're now officially in a severe drought. We've hit the 90's twice already and like SF said, drought brings on more drought. If we don't get any precip this Friday (which doesn't look likely) I'm not sure when we'll see rain again. Looks like a hot and dry spring until the afternoon storms start popping up in June.

What kind of pattern does this generally set up for the West? Hot or cool? Or average?

And that's good news about the hurricanes. I'm sure that most people would rather bask in record heat than have their town destroyed by a hurricane.

The East coast here just had a hot summer with either record conditions or near record conditions experienced. True we have a dry heat but it was still hot. and this seems similar to what we had

Average Max High Dec-Jan

Brisbane: 86.0°F (2.1°F)

Newcastle: 86.2°F (4.7°F)

Sydney Observatory: 82.1°F (+4.1°F)
Sydney Airport: 83.3°F (4.3°F)
Sydney Western Suburbs: 87.4°F (3.2°F)

Canberra: 85.8°F (5.2°F)

Melbourne: 80.4°F (3.0°F)

Hobart: 71.6°F (1.5°F)


Max Temps:

Brisbane: 96°F

Newcastle: 112°F

Sydney Observatory: 112°F
Sydney Airport: 113°F
Sydney Western Suburbs: 111°F

Canberra: 104°F

Melbourne: 109°F

Hobart: 102°F

Considering how hot it has gotten here in Texas over the Easter weekend, I'm really not surprised, of course I'd be REALLY worried if highs topped 120*F this summer.

Darn glad I didn't take the apartment with no air conditioning!

I'm afraid that we may see this dry pattern last into the summer. I've only had 1.18" of rain this month and I think March was less than 1".

It's good to see your forecasts again!