STORM2K

Well folks...the storms look like they may be returning to this area in about a week. The NWS has a 20% chance for mid next week, but a bigger threat will be next weekend. Looking at the models it seems that some nice strong, soaking showers and T-storms may be in the offing. Here is a look at the 18Z GFS for next Friday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

Next Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

Next Sunday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

And the week beyond next weekend looks to continue this trend! Our luck may just be about to turn around!

Please dont tease us!!! Bring it on!! I forgot what the rain and thunder sounds like....

I'll believe it when I see it. The last few times we've had rain expected (which isn't very often), it's fizzled out or just didn't make it this far south. I hope you're right though!

Models are still in agreement on storms starting late next week/next weekend and things look REALLY active the week after next. Here is the latest look at the GFS 18Z run for the Monday after next (216 hours out):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

I honestly don't know when it will rain again around here. We've only had .18" since February 25th and the NWS discussions don't sound too positive for next weekend.

NWS now has a rain chance in the forecast starting Thursday and lasting through next weekend! There is a 30% chance on Thursday night/Friday, but it may get higher if organized thunderstorms look more likely. This could be our best shot at rain in some time...and if we are lucky, some strong thunderstorms will also be a result.

Everybody, Keep your fingers crossed!!!!!!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
DAY 5 /SATURDAY THE 22ND/ WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND EVOLUTION OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC AND W COAST. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES ARISE IN STRENGTH OF
SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND IT/S
IMPACT ON EVOLUTION OF E COAST TROUGH. ALSO...17/00Z GFS INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY THE 23RD...AND THIS IS NOT DEPICTED IN EITHER THE ECMWF OR
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM
TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM FRIDAY APRIL 21ST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY APRIL 22ND. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG AND S OF A GENERALLY W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVES
ACROSS REGION AND INTERACTS WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF


Looks like the SPC also agrees that it is going to get active!

Yep, each day it looks a little more promising. I just hope with the pattern change it sticks for awhile.

Does Great Plains ridging enhance severe outbreaks further south?

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, we could really use the rain!

Unfortunately this PM's AFD is not as encouraging....we'll see.

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Does Great Plains ridging enhance severe outbreaks further south?

Great Plains ridging supresses severe most everywhere (well, maybe except the intermountain west, the Northern Plains, and Canada).

The upcoming pattern is one where an old frontal boundary will stall along the Gulf Coast and provide a focus for tstorm development each and every day until the pattern shifts. A stagnant pattern with troughing in the East and ridging in the West.

jschlitz wrote:Unfortunately this PM's AFD is not as encouraging....we'll see.

yeah I noticed the same thing. Let's hope the NWS is wrong and that we DO see this event unfold.

We need the rain. It's been BONE DRY and HOTTER THAN HELL. Unbelievable...for freakin' April, it doesn't feel like spring, it feels like July!

These GFS maps of potential rain events are just like the cold events that they kept on teasing us with this past winter.

The GFS just loves playing with our minds here in Texas. If we ever have an event with more than an inch of rain in my lifetime again, I'll be happy.

What's this? Hmm....looks like the Houston area will be danerously close to that slight risk area tomorrow...



WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY AND BIG BEND REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
AREAS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF DEL RIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...BUT
ADDITIONAL...PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ZONE OF STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...NORTH OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED IN MOIST LAYER ABOVE
FRONTAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH RISK
OF LARGE HAIL.

It is strange that the NWS only has a 10% chance of storms tomorrow. Something tells me they might have to raise it to at least 20-30%.

Also, regarding today, I just realized that Central TX is now under a Severe Thunderstorm watch. I wonder if anything will creep into the Houston area?



UPDATE: There have now been 2 hail reports out of the cluster of storms west of Austin. One report was for nickle sized hail and the other was for quarter sized hail. According to the SPC, they expect more storms to develope behind the main batch and they also expect storms to start moving SE through the evening. They say that you can expect storms to last for many hours. My hope is that one of these can get within 20 miles of my area so I can at least see some storm clouds/lightning (and a nice cooling outflow boundry would be nice too).

UPDATE 2 (9:30pm): It seems that there have been many more hail reports from this cluster. There have even been reports of hail over 4" in diameter! Anyone over in the hill country see any hail from this?

It looks like it is still hanging together... I wish it would push into the area.. I am on the west side of Houston... It would be nice to hear a rumble or two...

Yankeegirl wrote:It looks like it is still hanging together... I wish it would push into the area.. I am on the west side of Houston... It would be nice to hear a rumble or two...

I bet you guys on the west and North side will have a better chance than the rest of us.

Cross your fingers, my plants and grass need a nice soaking!