STORM2K

Our local forcasters are calling for a mdt svr risk tomorrow from about 25 miles west of I35 east to washington county and north to wichita


It'll be interesting to see what SPC does and what actually happens tomorrow.

Looks like SPC upgraded it to a mdt risk. Good call by our local forcasters, now we'll have to see if it verifies.

There is a severe thunderstorm watch and several warnings out, but that is for something else.

There are warnings just to my west. The real severe stuff is supposed to be after 6pm tonight.

Another upgrade to the probabilities....

Tornado threat now up to 15% (moderate risk on its own)
Hail threat now at 60% hatched


The main event won't start for another few hours yet at least, probably coinciding with me going to the pub so I miss all the action

Man fellas I snapped some pics a few mins ago, I'll try to get them up on my lunch our. Looked like it was 9oclock at night here at noon. Now its POURING rain and the anomometer on the roof has shown a peak gust of 68mph. Man we need this rain.

Gorky wrote:Another upgrade to the probabilities....

Tornado threat now up to 15% (moderate risk on its own)
Hail threat now at 60% hatched


The main event won't start for another few hours yet at least, probably coinciding with me going to the pub so I miss all the action

60-hatched, isn't that a high risk?

CrazyC83 wrote:

Gorky wrote:Another upgrade to the probabilities....

Tornado threat now up to 15% (moderate risk on its own)
Hail threat now at 60% hatched


The main event won't start for another few hours yet at least, probably coinciding with me going to the pub so I miss all the action

60-hatched, isn't that a high risk?

Not for hail. High risks aren't issued for hail.

jkt21787 wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:

Gorky wrote:Another upgrade to the probabilities....

Tornado threat now up to 15% (moderate risk on its own)
Hail threat now at 60% hatched


The main event won't start for another few hours yet at least, probably coinciding with me going to the pub so I miss all the action

60-hatched, isn't that a high risk?

Not for hail. High risks aren't issued for hail.

Correct...

Tornado watch is up pretty much west of I35. Conditions are looking good out there for supercell development. LCL and LFC's aren't too bad for tornado development although I dont think we're looking at anything close to an outbreak. But I wouldn't be surprised if we had 3 to 5 tornadoes out of the weather today.

6SpeedTA95 wrote:

jkt21787 wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:

Gorky wrote:Another upgrade to the probabilities....

Tornado threat now up to 15% (moderate risk on its own)
Hail threat now at 60% hatched


The main event won't start for another few hours yet at least, probably coinciding with me going to the pub so I miss all the action

60-hatched, isn't that a high risk?

Not for hail. High risks aren't issued for hail.

Correct...

Tornado watch is up pretty much west of I35. Conditions are looking good out there for supercell development. LCL and LFC's aren't too bad for tornado development although I dont think we're looking at anything close to an outbreak. But I wouldn't be surprised if we had 3 to 5 tornadoes out of the weather today.

Not really west of I35, it includes all of the OKC metro area and significant areas east of I35, including where half my immediate family live.

Given the complex scenarios we are dealing with here, I wouldn't rule out a significant outbreak, including multiple long-track tornadoes. There are three surface lows, two occluded fronts, an approaching dryline, an approaching sharply contrasting cold front, high dewpoints, lots of vorticity, dissipating cap with high cape values. Could get dicey...

If individual supercells develop, I'd say tornadoes are likely.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0244_radar.gif

This is a virtual coin flip at this point in my view. We could see anything from a major bust to a major outbreak.

I dont really see this being a "major" outbreak. I guess if you consider 5 or even 10 tornadoes major then it might be, but I dont know that we're gonna see 20, 25 or 30+ tornadoes today. In fact I'd say its highly unlikely.

soonertwister wrote:

6SpeedTA95 wrote:

jkt21787 wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:

Gorky wrote:Another upgrade to the probabilities....

Tornado threat now up to 15% (moderate risk on its own)
Hail threat now at 60% hatched


The main event won't start for another few hours yet at least, probably coinciding with me going to the pub so I miss all the action

60-hatched, isn't that a high risk?

Not for hail. High risks aren't issued for hail.

Correct...

Tornado watch is up pretty much west of I35. Conditions are looking good out there for supercell development. LCL and LFC's aren't too bad for tornado development although I dont think we're looking at anything close to an outbreak. But I wouldn't be surprised if we had 3 to 5 tornadoes out of the weather today.

Not really west of I35, it includes all of the OKC metro area and significant areas east of I35, including where half my immediate family live.

Given the complex scenarios we are dealing with here, I wouldn't rule out a significant outbreak, including multiple long-track tornadoes. There are three surface lows, two occluded fronts, an approaching dryline, an approaching sharply contrasting cold front, high dewpoints, lots of vorticity, dissipating cap with high cape values. Could get dicey...

If individual supercells develop, I'd say tornadoes are likely.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0244_radar.gif

I wasn't trying to downplay the area east of I35, I'm east of I35, but the vast majority of the box is west of I35 thats the only point I was trying to make. Bad wording on my part I apologize.

soonertwister wrote:

6SpeedTA95 wrote:

jkt21787 wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:

Gorky wrote:Another upgrade to the probabilities....

Tornado threat now up to 15% (moderate risk on its own)
Hail threat now at 60% hatched


The main event won't start for another few hours yet at least, probably coinciding with me going to the pub so I miss all the action

60-hatched, isn't that a high risk?

Not for hail. High risks aren't issued for hail.

Correct...

Tornado watch is up pretty much west of I35. Conditions are looking good out there for supercell development. LCL and LFC's aren't too bad for tornado development although I dont think we're looking at anything close to an outbreak. But I wouldn't be surprised if we had 3 to 5 tornadoes out of the weather today.

Not really west of I35, it includes all of the OKC metro area and significant areas east of I35, including where half my immediate family live.

Given the complex scenarios we are dealing with here, I wouldn't rule out a significant outbreak, including multiple long-track tornadoes. There are three surface lows, two occluded fronts, an approaching dryline, an approaching sharply contrasting cold front, high dewpoints, lots of vorticity, dissipating cap with high cape values. Could get dicey...

If individual supercells develop, I'd say tornadoes are likely.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0244_radar.gif

I wasn't trying to downplay the area east of I35, I'm east of I35, but the vast majority of the box is west of I35 thats the only point I was trying to make. Bad wording on my part I apologize.

This year, however, has not been conducive to tornadoes west of the I-35/I-29 corridor...

CrazyC83 wrote:This year, however, has not been conducive to tornadoes west of the I-35/I-29 corridor...

Yeah the svr weather season for us has gotten off to a fairly slow start. We officially hit peak season tomorrow and it runs through June 6th. So far we've only had 3 or 4 rounds of svr weather.

Man guys LI's including the OKC metro are -8, -9 and -10...we definately need to keep an eye on any development that happens in and/or around the OKC metro.

Skew T info is looking kinda ominous as well...we've still got another hour to two hours of good heating left so we'll have to see what happens.

6SpeedTA95 wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:This year, however, has not been conducive to tornadoes west of the I-35/I-29 corridor...

Yeah the svr weather season for us has gotten off to a fairly slow start. We officially hit peak season tomorrow and it runs through June 6th. So far we've only had 3 or 4 rounds of svr weather.

Basically it seems the 35/29 corridor has been a consistent dryline...it has been downright explosive to the east of there...

CrazyC83 wrote:

6SpeedTA95 wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:This year, however, has not been conducive to tornadoes west of the I-35/I-29 corridor...

Yeah the svr weather season for us has gotten off to a fairly slow start. We officially hit peak season tomorrow and it runs through June 6th. So far we've only had 3 or 4 rounds of svr weather.

Basically it seems the 35/29 corridor has been a consistent dryline...it has been downright explosive to the east of there...

Yeah we've had more late may/early june setups this year which is a bit odd.