STORM2K

i thought i create a new thread because i thought this was significant news coming out of the NWS this afternoon!
we need the rain big time....i thought everyone might be interested in what might be happening in the coming weeks. i stiil believe until we get some tropical waves in here we will still be kinda dry.

FXUS62 KMFL 041826
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...TIME TO REGROUP ON WHAT IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN NEXT
WEEK. WE WILL START WITH THE KNOWNS. WE HAVE OUR GULF OF MEXICO
AND CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH THE WINTER
AND SPRING. IT HAS WEAKENED SOME AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF WEAKENING BUT BY NO MEANS IS IT GOING AWAY. WE HAVE A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHICH HAS HAD SEVERAL STRONG
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. WE CAN SEE THE ITCZ MOVING NORTH WITH THE
SUN ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF MOISTURE. WE ARE WAITING FOR
SOME OF THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BREAK THROUGH OUR RIDGE AND GET US
INTO THE RAINY SEASON.

TODAY WE HAD A SMALL LOW NEAR 65W THAT HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF
MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA. HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
RAPIDLY THIS MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. SO
STILL DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WE ARE PRIMARILY
WAITING FOR A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH TO ALLOW US TO TAP INTO SOME DEEP
MOISTURE SINCE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT HEAT FOR
CONVECTION FROM NOW ON. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENTLY BEING TAPPED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THESE UPPER WAVES THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UNFORTURENATELY THESE DAMP OUT AS
THEY MOVE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. RECENTLY WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE
SCENERIO THAT SOME SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
MAJOR TROUGH OVER CANADA AND BRING A FRONTAL TROUGH INTO OUR
ZONES. WE STARTED WITH THIS OCCURRING ON THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME I AM BASICALLY GOING TO
QUIT CHASING A PARTICULAR FRONTAL TROUGH. SINCE WE HAVE
PRECIPITATION IN FOR MONDAY WILL STICK WITH THAT TIMING SINCE THAT
LOOKS LIKE THE EARLIEST WE COULD HAVE THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE WEEK. WILL
ONLY MENTION SHOWERS ON MONDAY FOR NOW BUT KEEP SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES IN AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC MANAGED TO INCREASE
THE WESTERLY WINDS TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER WE STILL SHOULD BE IN THE
SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OCCASIONALLY DEEPENING WE WILL
SEE SOME PERIODS OF 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS BUT SHOULD STILL STAY
BELOW CAUTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLAN NO CHANGES IN THE PRESENT WARNING AND WATCH
AREAS. WE ARE STILL DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
STILL BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A WATCH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE A DECISION ABOUT THIS LATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 86 68 87 / 0 0 10 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 85 71 88 / 0 0 10 5
MIAMI 67 87 70 89 / 0 0 10 5
NAPLES 67 84 69 85 / 0 0 5 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Excellent! I love the pop-up thunderstorms.

Sounds Dreamy.. Dang dogs can't even find a comfy spot to do the business. It is hard, dry and crispy here. I hope it's not temporary and actually does kick in for the daily action at least inland..

Aquawind wrote:Sounds Dreamy.. Dang dogs can't even find a comfy spot to do the business. It is hard, dry and crispy here. I hope it's not temporary and actually does kick in for the daily action at least inland..

hey i wanna ask you. I believe Bonita Springs lies inbetween Ft.Myers and Naples. Are there any middle and high schools in Bonita Springs?

<RICKY>

I will move this thread to USA Weather forum as it has nothing to do with hurricanes.

Here ya go..

http://www.lee.k12.fl.us/schools/bnm/

Estero is right north of Bonita..

http://www.lee.k12.fl.us/schools/est/

http://www.floridasmart.com/local/count ... public.htm

Well done Luis.

Interesting how it mentions the weaker ridging... this confirms what I mentioned earlier. It is also less Atlantic in origin than it was earlier this year and less persistent.