Severe Weather/Heavy Rainfall This Weekend for Texas

[Johnny]

'Special Weather Statements' across Texas....



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-061415-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
903 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE
STORM TRAINING. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH 2 TO
3 INCHES AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO...SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN THE MORNING. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

_____________________________________________________________


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A GRAHAM...TO CANTON LINE. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
_____________________________________________________________


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-061030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
527 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks to be an active 48 hours ahead. Let's just hope that NW Harris County can be sparred from any more golf ball+ sized hail. I have a feeling we could see a good damaging wind event next.

[Johnny]

Yep, those hail pictures that you posted yesterday is what I do not need. LOL What I wouldn't mind is some serious rain totals. Yesterday their was a severe thunderstorm warning for the Lake Conroe Dam area which is where I live. We hardly even got a sprinkle out of this storm? I guess I should be glad since it was a pretty good hailer. Their was alot of damage reports from yesterday with that HP supercell as you know. Currently their is a 'Flash Flood Watch' issued for a big portion of the Hill Country and boy do they need it. That would be nice to see this extended into our area later on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yep, those hail pictures that you posted yesterday is what I do not need. LOL What I wouldn't mind is some serious rain totals. Yesterday their was a severe thunderstorm warning for the Lake Conroe Dam area which is where I live. We hardly even got a sprinkle out of this storm? I guess I should be glad since it was a pretty good hailer. Their was alot of damage reports from yesterday with that HP supercell as you know. Currently their is a 'Flash Flood Watch' issued for a big portion of the Hill Country and boy do they need it. That would be nice to see this extended into our area later on.

yes, we do all need the rain...I just hope that here in Spring we end up getting a slower, lighter rain than what other areas see (though I doubt it will play out like that). After the huge rain amounts yesterday, all the local drainage creeks turned into raging rivers (flowing fast and becoming tens of feet deep). If we get another good storm like yesterday's in a short period, then some serous flooding may result.

[Garnetcat5]

So far it's all clear...maybe it will stay that way until i get home tonight about 7

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the SPC outlook for tomorrow. It looks like we could see a large MCS overnight or tomorrow morning followed by possible supercells tomorrow afternoon:

...CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING
FROM CNTRL AND ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN
REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
INFLUX OF MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER S TX INTO SRN
LA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THESE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR JUST
TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR OR S OF FRONTAL
WAVE OVER CNTRL INTO ERN OR SERN TX. HERE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES. THESE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OR
SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN LA SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR E
AS SRN MS INTO SWRN AL. ...CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING
FROM CNTRL AND ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN
REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
INFLUX OF MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER S TX INTO SRN
LA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THESE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR JUST
TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR OR S OF FRONTAL
WAVE OVER CNTRL INTO ERN OR SERN TX. HERE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES. THESE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OR
SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN LA SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR E
AS SRN MS INTO SWRN AL.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, here is the latest NWS discussion:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 052023
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET...THE MCS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO THE
WEST AND ADVECT INTO SE TX LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH SO THAT THE GFS WAS
KEEPING THE MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND THE ETA WAS
MORE TOWARD SE TX. BOTH HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT BUT LEANED
TOWARD THE ETA.

THINGS HAVE BEEN RATHER QUIET TODAY SO FAR. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
THE THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
3 AND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AM EXPECTING ACTIVITY FROM THE
WEST TO ENTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE
INDICES ALL INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE WEST TO EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
HIGH PW/S...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE GFS IS STILL INDICATING A BRIEF DRYING TREND ON SUNDAY. THE
ETA WAS KEEPING BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE. THE GFS THEN HINTS THAT THE ACTIVE JET
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE REDEVELOPING
OVER THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[Johnny]

Well after looking at the radar it doesn't look like the cap will be broken today. Their isn't even a speck on the radar.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the cap is a bit stronger due to a less favorable storm environment left after yesterday's supercell. Don't worry though...I fully expect to see storms in the area tonight and/or tomorrow as upper level dynamics become better for storm development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seabreeze boundry is moving NW through Harris county right now. ahead of it...dewpoints are near 60F, and behind it...they are between 70-75F. I think it will be this added moisture that will lead to the threat of stronger storms and heavier rains this weekend...and this moisture will aid in maintaining a system that reaches us overnight. This seabreeze should reach the Spring area by 8:30pm and then reach the far NW tip of the county by 10pm. Storms could form along the boundry as well as it moves through, but to me it looks like only a 10-20% chance of that happening.

BTW: at Hobby airport...dewpoints jumped from 62F to 70F in just 2 hours behind the seabreeze.

[jasons2k]

Wow, there is an incredible amount of warnings in TX right now.

[CrazyC83]

7 tornadoes reported so far. No injuries as of yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There have also been reports of hail to SOFTBALL size (4.25" diameter)! I couldn't even imagine hail like that, especially after how bad I thought yesterday's golf ball hail storm (1.75" diameter) was.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW...there are now 8 tornado reports.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am getting worried about the storms tonight/tomorrow. If they do happen (especially if they hold off until tomorrow afternoon), then we could be talking about more potential hailers. It seems like every storm in west Texas right now has a mention of "golf ball" or "tennis ball" or "baseball" sized hail in the warning. Another thing I am worried about is that we may get a big wind storm. there is a bow just south of the panhandle right now and it's warning says that it is produing, "hurricane force winds to 80mph". I guess we shall wait and see...

Latest from the NWS:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 060208 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
906 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES IN PLACE ACROSS SE
TX EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE LYING EAST-WEST ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES
AND ANOTHER LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG US HIGHWAY 59. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES HAVE REMAINED INACTIVE TODAY DUE TO A STABLE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO
WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING MCS CURRENTLY BETWEEN ABILENE AND LUBBOCK.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS SE TX
BY LATE TONIGHT. PARALLEL NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BEST HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. MCS IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NW THIRD OF SE TX VERY
LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 09Z)...AND AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT SAT AFTN. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING
NW THIRD FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOWER POPS FOR CHANCE CATEGORY
ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP SEVERE MENTION GOING LATE TONIGHT ONLY FOR
THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. WILL GO 50 POPS AREA WIDE SATURDAY...WITH
SEVERE MENTION FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

[Stratosphere747]

Any idea if there is a problem with the radar sites?

Just happened to look at a few in Texas, and I see quite a few warning boxes, but without any storms....

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like the northern parts of Texas are getting it right now, maybe we will get some tomorrow morning... Does anyone know the possible timeframe of the storms moving into the area?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the northern parts of Texas are getting it right now, maybe we will get some tomorrow morning... Does anyone know the possible timeframe of the storms moving into the area?

the exact timing is uncertain, but it looks like a possible MCS tomorrow morning, followed by possible supercell development in the afternoon. A bad situation would be if the MCS never came. If that happened, then the storms tomorrow afternoon (with more heating and instability) could be a lot worse than if the MCS comes.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

It's about to start raining here, most of the severe weather is to the southwest of the metroplex.

[Yankeegirl]

Nothing here yet... Just some clouds and the humidity!!