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The next major outbreak: May 8-11?
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 5:08 pm
by CrazyC83
The SPC is getting really aggressive in their predictions for next week. Those types of maps haven't been seen since April 7, and it is for an enormously large area too. Could a major outbreak be brewing next week?
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 5:26 pm
by WaitingForSiren
I doubt it..maybe a fairly concentrated wind or hail event, but the tornadic threat seems low. I could see maybe 10 tornado reports any day this coming week, but not much more, and strong tornado threat looks low. Most of the activity will be along a cold front coming se from a strong low in canada, not a favorable pattern for a tornado outbreak (november 10 2002 was a major exception, but this event is nothing like that sypnotically).
So anyway,tuesday hail and wind in OK/KS/ARK/north texas/MO spreading eastward on wednesday.
Saint Louis
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 9:41 pm
by aveosmth
I'll be in Saint Louis until Wednesday afternoon...how do you guys see the threat for severe there?
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 9:53 pm
by 6SpeedTA95
Man guys as quick as things change this type of year its hard to say anything more than about 2 days out.
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 10:52 pm
by CrazyC83
6SpeedTA95 wrote:Man guys as quick as things change this type of year its hard to say anything more than about 2 days out.
Very true! However, the long-range forecasts have been remarkably reliable! All of this year's big events were well-predicted...
Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 11:52 pm
by wxmann_91
CrazyC83 wrote:6SpeedTA95 wrote:Man guys as quick as things change this type of year its hard to say anything more than about 2 days out.
Very true! However, the long-range forecasts have been remarkably reliable! All of this year's big events were well-predicted...
Well, in March and April. Then after April 7, we switched to a more benign pattern and the long-range models have become crap. For example, GFS was showing a huge western trough and strong SW flow for mid-late May just a couple of days ago. Since then, it has completely flip-flopped. Now, I still think after this cold shot (if it materializes) there will be a major outbreak.
Many models agree that this system will be the pattern changer. A piece of SW energy will phase with the northern jet and this carves a huge trough in the east. Ugg. This will require perfect timing. Even if they do phase, concern arises over the dynamics, which according to the ECMWF, will be lagging.
GFS OTOH shows something bigger on the 0Z run. Anybody got a synoptic setup of the May 31, 1985 tornado outbreak?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2006 1:25 am
by WaitingForSiren
I remember seeing a map somewhere on a site and it showed a very deep low in the 980s into canada with an occluded front into michigan and ohio and a warm front wedged in.
Posted: Sat May 06, 2006 11:24 am
by CrazyC83
WaitingForSiren wrote:I remember seeing a map somewhere on a site and it showed a very deep low in the 980s into canada with an occluded front into michigan and ohio and a warm front wedged in.
What does that mean? Big outbreak farther north?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2006 3:23 pm
by conestogo_flood
WHAT?! MAY 31, 1985 ALL OVER?!
Here in southwest Ontario?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2006 3:57 pm
by wxmann_91
I do not expect a May 31, 1985, I was just asking for the synoptic setup of that outbreak. Don't panic, this is still many days away.
Posted: Sun May 07, 2006 10:10 pm
by CrazyC83
The area to watch Monday would be from about southern Manitoba down to eastern Kansas and perhaps northeastern Oklahoma.
However, I think the greater activity is Tuesday to Thursday. Tuesday in the Mississippi Valley from Minnesota to Missouri, Wednesday in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley from central Ontario to Kentucky and possibly in the Mid-South, and Thursday in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.