Round 2 looks like it could be worse than round 1 last night. Thoughts?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
000
FXUS62 KMFL 161421
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 AM EDT TUE MAY 16 2006
.UPDATE...WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS
HOUR...HOWEVER...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT STILL
EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CALCULATED FROM SOUNDING THIS
MORNING A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT WAS GENERATED YESTERDAY
MORNING WITH INSTABILITY BEING THE REAL LIMITING FACTOR THIS TIME.
DYNAMICS OVERNIGHT PRODUCED ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER FOR A SHORT
TIME...BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS SINCE MOVED TO EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. ANOTHER STRONGER-LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS STILL UPSTREAM AND
PRODUCING MUCH CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH/NORTHEAST. ALSO...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY OVERNIGHT STORMS LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
STRAITS JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME ENHANCED AS IT INTERACTS
AND SPREADS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS
BOUNDARY HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH GIVEN MODIFICATION
OF THE AIRMASS NORTH OF IT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THICKENING
CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS WILL
GREATLY LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AN EAST COAST SEABREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED...BUT...BECAUSE OF THE
REDUCED HEATING...IT WILL LIKELY BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MONDAY`S BREEZE. THEREFORE...OVERALL
CONCLUSION IS THAT STORMS WILL NOT LIKELY DEVELOP IN EARNEST OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BUT GREATEST THREAT
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE DAY INTO TONIGHT AS STRONGER
DYNAMICS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
HAIL THREAT TO BE LESS THAN MONDAY`S...BUT SOME PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZED HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN DEEPEST CONVECTION.
ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND/OR WEAK TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING EXISTS...MAINLY WHERE THE 6 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN FELL MONDAY FROM SWEETWATER TO HIALEAH AND OPA-
LOCKA. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. NO BIG CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.