STORM2K

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Yep the way it looks with all the heat and instablity and moisture in the year, it looks the carolinias, mid atlantic, and possibly the northeast. with the cold front coming down. It doesent to look that bad. I think areas with morning clouds wont get much but areas along the carolinia coast with the seabreeze will see some hail and damaging winds. Maybe a tornado inland back towards the Piemont of the carolinias.

The discussion coming from the SPC and local AFD's from South Carolina are actually a little more ominous WRT to the s/w coming down from the NW which would act as a strong focusing mechanism for an MCS type system to blossom later this evening, and could produce quite the windmaking batch of thunderstorms. Lapse Rates are actually quite marginal, and would support maybe a minimal threat for hail. One thing very interesting today is that the TDP (temperature dewpoints) are starting out quite a bit drier this morning and early afternoon b/c of the more Westerly flow across the region (dewpoints in the upper 60's vs. the low to mid 70's yesterday) ... but something with the amount of heat and instability, along with boundaries left over from yesterday's scattered afternoon pulse convection bears watching.

SF

The Southeast doesn't normally get widespread severe outbreaks in the summer except when related to tropical cyclones. While the air mass is always unstable and thunderstorms pop up almost every day, the cap prevents any real tornadic activity and severe storms are generally isolated and usually due to high winds.

From June to August, most big outbreaks will be north of the I-70 corridor, primarily in the northern Plains and the Great Lakes.