STORM2K

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
GRAVITY WAVE HAS PROPAGATED EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ENCOUNTERING UNCAPPED MOD/HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED
PULSE TYPE SEVERE WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA INTO SOUTHEAST NE. FRONT THROUGH
MCCOOK NE WHICH OLD FORECASTER RULE OF THUMB SUGGESTS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO CWA WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. PROBLEM TONIGHT IS WITH PCPN CHCS.
AFTER EARLY EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION...FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST WITH FRONT. CONCERNS WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST WITH NO COHERENT
TRIGGER ASIDE FROM APPROACHING FRONT. CAN/T RULE OUT MCV BEING SPAWNED
FROM WESTERN MO COMPLEX WHICH WOULD TRY TO LIFT N OVERNIGHT IN S/SW FLOW.
FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FAR WEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT
AND SIDED WITH CHC ELSEWHERE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS...STRUGGLE WITH
GUIDANCE MINS WHICH ARE 1-2 CATS COOLER THAN WE/VE SEEN PAST COUPLE
OF MORNINGS... SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE AND COULD STILL BE COOL.