STORM2K

http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/

While SE Florida has had some rain, the drought continues for most of Florida.

Change is in the air..to much change..but we will take every drop.

FXUS62 KTBW 010726
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

...HERE COMES THE RAIN (CROSS YOUR FINGERS)...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...RIGHT ON CUE AS THE TYPICAL
"RAINY SEASON" BEGINS...A CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY. LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE SEEN SCANT RAIN SINCE LATE WINTER (PRIMARILY ALONG THE
CENTRAL COASTLINE) SHOULD SHARE SOME OF THE WEALTH. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY...BUT A
STILL ACTIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN ENSURES THAT OUR TRUE RAINY
SEASON...THE ONE THAT FEATURES A SEMI-PERMANENT BERMUDA
HIGH...WILL NOT TRULY GET STARTED ANYTIME SOON. THAT SAID...WE`LL
TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET AT THIS POINT.

FOR TODAY...THE TABLE IS SET. HERE IS WHY: FIRST AND
FOREMOST...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS LIT UP WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MELT AWAY WHEN THEY REACH
ABOUT 30-50 MILES INLAND. IN THE SUMMER...THIS IS ALWAYS A
HARBINGER OF ACTIVITY TO COME DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE
SUNCOAST. SECOND...THE CURRENT ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING WEST AROUND THE
LARGER (THOUGH WEAK) TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO SPIN BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SPOKE IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR...AND WILL HELP DISPLACE SOME OF THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE OVER THE SUNCOAST AND ADJACENT GULF.
FINALLY...THE COMBINATION OF THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARIES SET OFF FROM THE CONTINUING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW HEALTHY CAPE APPROACHING 3000 WITH LIFTED INDEX
BETWEEN -4 AND -6...PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON BOOMERS.

ALL THIS SAID...HAVE BUMPED COVERAGE INTO THE NUMEROUS RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD INLAND...ACTION WILL STACK UP ON
THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND WITH LESS OF A WESTWARD PUSH HAVE
CUT THINGS OFF SHARPLY IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW...BUT EXPECT SOME TO NEAR OR JUST EXCEED CRITERIA (WIND
GUSTS AND PENNY-NICKEL HAIL) WHICH IS PAR FOR THE COURSE IN EARLY
JUNE. MORE ON THE GRAPHICAL AND TEXT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

GFS AND MESO-NAM EACH INDICATE A SLOW DECAY OF THE ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. MAY VERY WELL END UP A "DEBRIS RAIN" SITUATION BUT GIVEN
INSTABILITY (WHICH COULD FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT ON OLD BOUNDARIES)
WILL HANG ONTO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH MID EVENING.

AS FOR FRIDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE WAS TO BEEF
UP THE PRECIPITATION AREA AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST
1/3 OF THE REGION WHERE DEEP MOISTURE DAYTIME HEATING AND BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AIR ALOFT BUT WARM/STICKY FOR US DOWN HERE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY BECOMES OUR NEXT INTERESTING WEATHER DAY. THE NAM HAS
BEEN BOLDLY INSISTENT ON A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE MORNING AND THE
CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DISSIPATION AS THE
BAND SAGS SOUTH. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS PLUNGING BELOW 580 (YES...IN
A NON-TROPICAL JUNE SYSTEM)...AND DYNAMICS INCREASING AT ALL
LEVELS...THERE IS A THREAT FOR NOT ONLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY BUT SEVERE WEATHER (DAMAGING WIND
AND SOME HAIL) AS WELL. I`VE NO QUALMS ABOUT FORECASTING NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY OF THIS EVENT FOR MORE THAN TWO DAYS NOW. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS IRON OUT THE DETAILS...

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND A WEAKENING SFC FRONT STALLED ALONG THE
FL/GA BORDER. DESPITE THE FRONTAL LOCATION...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE
COMING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM N TO S. BY
MON...GENERAL LOW PRESSURE STICKS AROUND AT THE SFC...WHEREAS THE
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS A LOW OVER THE SE U.S.. MODELS NOW
DIVERGING ON DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW. 18Z DGEX CAME IN WITH
WEAKER UPPER TROUGHING INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW...WHEREAS 00Z GFS HAS
A CLOSED LOW BUT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. EITHER
WAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE DRYING AS SUBTROPICAL JET KEEPS BEST
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND BASED ON
UNCERTAINY...WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THRU
WED...HOWEVER MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS.


&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE INNER WATERS
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS EASTERLY FLOW
QUITS AND FAIRLY QUICKLY TURNS TO A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MAY APPROACH
CAUTION LEVELS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE RAIN-FREE ZONE. A GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THE MOISTURE BAND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
DROP AND DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKES OVER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY MORNING EXPECTED ACROSS
TAF SITES...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY DIPPING TO 5-6SM AROUND DAYBREAK. BY
MID MORNING VSBY RETURNS TO SOLID VFR...AT LEAST UNTIL SCT TO NMRS
SHRA AND TSTMS DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTN. AS THIS IS STILL IN THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD...WILL GO WITH VCTS ATTM. HOWEVER AS THE RAINS COME
THRU THE TAF SITES...THEY WILL SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS VSBY
AND CIGS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE REMAINS THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STARTS
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS HUMIDITY WILL
FINALLY BE ON ON THE UPSWING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN AREAS THAT ARE IN THE MOST
NEED IS CERTAINLY WELCOME. DISPERSION SHOULD RISE AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND MIXING WINDS PICK UP...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS (FOR A CHANGE).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 73 88 74 / 60 30 20 5
FMY 90 71 90 72 / 60 30 20 5
GIF 89 71 90 72 / 60 30 60 20
SRQ 89 72 86 73 / 60 30 20 5
BKV 90 68 89 68 / 60 30 40 5
SPG 89 75 87 76 / 60 30 20 5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/BSG
LONG TERM/AVIATION....55/RJS

LOL, gotta love the rain today. Everywhere but near my house.

Two lines popping up, both sides of my county, yet none so far.

Seabreeze is helping coastal counties, inland counties are still dry.


NE Florida (other than Duval and Nassau counties) are not getting much in the way of rain.

.19 inches reported @ Jax Intl Airport
.05 @ Gainesville
Not a drop at my house. Got some good wind gusts yesterday up to 32mph, but no rain.

Hoping to get some today. Only thing that helps is the fact that I have reclaimed water for my yard, so I can use it 3-4 times a week without limitation.

we got 3 inches here yesterday, but some parts of east tampa got diddly squat. once the summertime rains and hurricanes come, i dont think that there will be a problem with droughts.

Looks like a classic rainy season day here today.. Clear as a bell over the water and inland 5-10 mile and then some awesome Storms inland.. They look beautiful from here. Bring on the rainy season!