boca_chris wrote:Actually I have to disagree. This May was fairly wet here in South Florida and there was a complete lack of any Bermuda High-like feature whatsoever. If you believe the dry may theory than South Florida will escape this year.
Actually, we did have some ridging that was more persistent and a bit stronger this month than compared to last month; also, you can have a wet May and strong ridging, as you need to remember that strong Atlantic ridging can still bring wet and moist conditions via easterly moisture and shower flow, sparking off coastal showers and thunderstorms. You can't just rely on a dry/wet May as a magic theory... there are just too many climatological complexities to look at instead of taking a magic theory so seriously. There is little to none correlation between a dry/wet May and tropical storm/hurricane strikes in Florida. Check the storm tracks from 1947, which was a wet May year and likely had a mildly to moderately negative NAO pattern... other factors still led to southeast Florida getting hit from the east that year in September, plus a hit from the southwest in October. Bottom line is this: look at the factors playing in, trends, hints, and signs (including overall), rather than investing in a magic May theory... after all, 1964 had a similar May pattern to now, and southeast Florida still had Cleo, plus Dora in northeast Florida. Also, Florida can get hit from the southwest in any year, ridging or not. OK... rant over! I just want you to understand the principles of what I mean.
By the way, this also shows why I don't believe in the dry May theory, nor invest too much in it. It all depends on the PATTERNS and FACTORS. Period.
