For N. Texas, it's warmest year on record
Posted: Fri Jun 16, 2006 7:12 am
Drought is unrelenting, but rain may offer brief relief this weekend
By ROY APPLETON / The Dallas Morning News
It's been the warmest year in North Texas in more than a century.
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport has gone 38 consecutive days without measurable rainfall.
Area cities are restricting water use. Lake levels are falling. Forecasters say the 16-month drought is unlikely to be broken for months, even if rain comes as expected this weekend.
All of this even before summer officially begins at 7:26 a.m. Wednesday.
If three historic years are any guide, the unusually warm weather and springtime dry spell could be setting the stage for a particularly nasty summer, said Victor Murphy, a National Weather Service climatologist in Fort Worth.
"It's not a good combination," he said of the drought and heat, which represents the area's warmest average temperature since local record keeping began in 1898.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is projecting above-average temperatures across Texas and most of the nation through March. Forecasters say rainfall should be about average at least into September.
But normal precipitation of about 2 inches per month won't end the drought that since Feb. 1, 2005, has left the region with rainfall deficits ranging from 21.49 inches at D/FW Airport to more than 29 inches at the Denton and McKinney airports.
"This is not the time of year you want to be pulling yourself out of a drought," Mr. Murphy said.
Forecasters predict a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday in the Dallas area, with rainfall of up to 3 inches possible in places.
A high-pressure system that has dominated the region's weather this spring, blocking rain-producing moisture, is breaking up. The predictions prompted the U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday to project "some improvement" in local drought conditions, which were deemed "severe" after below-average rainfall in April and May.
"It's certainly a start," said Doug LeComte, a climate center drought specialist. Still, he said, "We don't see the drought going away anytime soon."
Any rain would be nice
Any rain would be a cool switch in what's been the Dallas area's warmest year on record.
Daily temperatures through Wednesday have averaged 65.3 degrees at D/FW Airport, the area's official climate-recording site. That's almost 2 degrees warmer than the averages for the runners-up for partial-year records in 1911 and 2000.
Contributing to that record average was an unexpected heat wave April 17 that triggered rolling electrical blackouts across the area. The local temperature hit 101 degrees that day, the third-earliest 100-degree day on the books.
Mr. Murphy didn't want to hazard a guess at what's behind this year's extraordinary heat.
"It could be a hundred different things," he said.
There's at least one certainty: Even though above-average temperatures are forecast into next year, the record-breaking pace isn't guaranteed to last. The year 2000 ended up the 12th-warmest on record by Dec. 31, and 1911 was 14th.
Rain would be good news for residents of Frisco, Garland, Dallas and other cities that have curbed landscape watering. It would help lakes such as Lavon, Lewisville and Grapevine that are 7 to 10 feet below normal, and help farmers whose pastures, hay meadows and row crops are in critical need of water.
With water supplies stressed, most Dallas-area cities are imposing watering restrictions and, in some cases, are ticketing violators in a push to reduce water demand.
Dallas prohibits landscape watering from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. daily. Most of the 62 cities and other customers served by the North Texas Municipal Water District are limiting watering to once a week at the district's request.
The district treats and delivers water from Lake Lavon, Lake Texoma and Jim Chapman Lake northeast of Dallas. At the end of May, those reservoirs were 63 percent full, said Mike Rickman, the district's executive assistant.
But Chapman Lake, about 11 feet below normal and less than 50 percent full, is becoming a concern. And those with rights to its water, such as the city of Irving, are looking to reduce their draw, he said.
"We're not desperate. The lakes are not going to go dry," he said. "If we can get through the summer and get people conserving, we'll be fine."
Yet if supplies keep declining and conservation goals aren't met, the district could call for more stringent measures, such as bans on all outdoor watering, car washing and the filling or refilling of swimming pools, Mr. Rickman said.
38 days without rain
The 38-day dry spell began May 9 and is the second-longest springtime stretch. It ranks as the 18th-longest overall in North Texas.
Three others that began in May and lasted more than 30 days led to some of the roughest summers on record around here: 1980, 1952 and 1934.
Temperatures hit triple digits on 69 days in 1980. In 1952, a 6 ½-year drought was under way. And 1934, a Dust Bowl year across the Midwest, was the Dallas area's fourth-warmest and sixth-driest year.
"Unless we get some rain in here to wet the ground, we're well on our way toward one of these type summers," Mr. Murphy said. "We're running at a good, healthy, warm pace."
In January the climatologist predicted that "things could get ugly" if the region didn't at least get its normal precipitation through the spring.
But a high-pressure weather system formed earlier than normal this year over the Southwestern U.S., hung around and blocked the typical flows of moisture-rich, storm-producing air away from North Texas, Mr. Murphy said.
After the year's relatively wet start, including flood-producing downpours of 10 inches and more across the region in mid-March, rainfall has been below average since April at D/FW Airport, and it is down 3.3 inches for the year.
"Hopefully, our water infrastructure and power grid are in a position where they can handle a long, hot summer," Mr. Murphy said.
Looking ahead, predictions of another active hurricane season for the North Atlantic increase the odds that the Texas coast and, in turn, North Texas could get a drenching, he said.
A weak El Niño system could develop in the tropical Pacific this fall and fuel above-normal rainfall for Texas and the Southwestern U.S., Mr. Murphy said.
"That's maybe something to hang our hat on long term," he said.
And winter is only 189 days away.
By ROY APPLETON / The Dallas Morning News
It's been the warmest year in North Texas in more than a century.
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport has gone 38 consecutive days without measurable rainfall.
Area cities are restricting water use. Lake levels are falling. Forecasters say the 16-month drought is unlikely to be broken for months, even if rain comes as expected this weekend.
All of this even before summer officially begins at 7:26 a.m. Wednesday.
If three historic years are any guide, the unusually warm weather and springtime dry spell could be setting the stage for a particularly nasty summer, said Victor Murphy, a National Weather Service climatologist in Fort Worth.
"It's not a good combination," he said of the drought and heat, which represents the area's warmest average temperature since local record keeping began in 1898.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is projecting above-average temperatures across Texas and most of the nation through March. Forecasters say rainfall should be about average at least into September.
But normal precipitation of about 2 inches per month won't end the drought that since Feb. 1, 2005, has left the region with rainfall deficits ranging from 21.49 inches at D/FW Airport to more than 29 inches at the Denton and McKinney airports.
"This is not the time of year you want to be pulling yourself out of a drought," Mr. Murphy said.
Forecasters predict a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday in the Dallas area, with rainfall of up to 3 inches possible in places.
A high-pressure system that has dominated the region's weather this spring, blocking rain-producing moisture, is breaking up. The predictions prompted the U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday to project "some improvement" in local drought conditions, which were deemed "severe" after below-average rainfall in April and May.
"It's certainly a start," said Doug LeComte, a climate center drought specialist. Still, he said, "We don't see the drought going away anytime soon."
Any rain would be nice
Any rain would be a cool switch in what's been the Dallas area's warmest year on record.
Daily temperatures through Wednesday have averaged 65.3 degrees at D/FW Airport, the area's official climate-recording site. That's almost 2 degrees warmer than the averages for the runners-up for partial-year records in 1911 and 2000.
Contributing to that record average was an unexpected heat wave April 17 that triggered rolling electrical blackouts across the area. The local temperature hit 101 degrees that day, the third-earliest 100-degree day on the books.
Mr. Murphy didn't want to hazard a guess at what's behind this year's extraordinary heat.
"It could be a hundred different things," he said.
There's at least one certainty: Even though above-average temperatures are forecast into next year, the record-breaking pace isn't guaranteed to last. The year 2000 ended up the 12th-warmest on record by Dec. 31, and 1911 was 14th.
Rain would be good news for residents of Frisco, Garland, Dallas and other cities that have curbed landscape watering. It would help lakes such as Lavon, Lewisville and Grapevine that are 7 to 10 feet below normal, and help farmers whose pastures, hay meadows and row crops are in critical need of water.
With water supplies stressed, most Dallas-area cities are imposing watering restrictions and, in some cases, are ticketing violators in a push to reduce water demand.
Dallas prohibits landscape watering from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. daily. Most of the 62 cities and other customers served by the North Texas Municipal Water District are limiting watering to once a week at the district's request.
The district treats and delivers water from Lake Lavon, Lake Texoma and Jim Chapman Lake northeast of Dallas. At the end of May, those reservoirs were 63 percent full, said Mike Rickman, the district's executive assistant.
But Chapman Lake, about 11 feet below normal and less than 50 percent full, is becoming a concern. And those with rights to its water, such as the city of Irving, are looking to reduce their draw, he said.
"We're not desperate. The lakes are not going to go dry," he said. "If we can get through the summer and get people conserving, we'll be fine."
Yet if supplies keep declining and conservation goals aren't met, the district could call for more stringent measures, such as bans on all outdoor watering, car washing and the filling or refilling of swimming pools, Mr. Rickman said.
38 days without rain
The 38-day dry spell began May 9 and is the second-longest springtime stretch. It ranks as the 18th-longest overall in North Texas.
Three others that began in May and lasted more than 30 days led to some of the roughest summers on record around here: 1980, 1952 and 1934.
Temperatures hit triple digits on 69 days in 1980. In 1952, a 6 ½-year drought was under way. And 1934, a Dust Bowl year across the Midwest, was the Dallas area's fourth-warmest and sixth-driest year.
"Unless we get some rain in here to wet the ground, we're well on our way toward one of these type summers," Mr. Murphy said. "We're running at a good, healthy, warm pace."
In January the climatologist predicted that "things could get ugly" if the region didn't at least get its normal precipitation through the spring.
But a high-pressure weather system formed earlier than normal this year over the Southwestern U.S., hung around and blocked the typical flows of moisture-rich, storm-producing air away from North Texas, Mr. Murphy said.
After the year's relatively wet start, including flood-producing downpours of 10 inches and more across the region in mid-March, rainfall has been below average since April at D/FW Airport, and it is down 3.3 inches for the year.
"Hopefully, our water infrastructure and power grid are in a position where they can handle a long, hot summer," Mr. Murphy said.
Looking ahead, predictions of another active hurricane season for the North Atlantic increase the odds that the Texas coast and, in turn, North Texas could get a drenching, he said.
A weak El Niño system could develop in the tropical Pacific this fall and fuel above-normal rainfall for Texas and the Southwestern U.S., Mr. Murphy said.
"That's maybe something to hang our hat on long term," he said.
And winter is only 189 days away.