STORM2K

This came in from Jeff earliar.


Massive MCS likely tonight... wind damage is possible along with more heavy rain.

Morning MCS (thunderstorms complex) has dissipated roughly along I-10 with leftover outflow boundary stretching from Wharton to Clear Lake to Beaumont. Tropical air mass south of this boundary will surge north over the next 4-8 hours priming the area for the next round.

Thunderstorms have already fired off across NW TX and SW OK where MCS should develop by dark and roar SSE tonight. Mesohigh effects along with NW shear should result in a damaging SE propagating MCS tonight from NW to the upper TX coast. 30-40kt low level jet will enhance convergence after midnight along the leading edge. SPC is quite concerned with the wind damage potential...and gust of 60-70mph are possible along the leading gust front of the complex. Northern part of SE TX should be hit between 100am and 400am with the complex pushing off the coast around 800am to 1000am.

An additional 2-3 inches of rainfall will be possible with this complex, but fast forward motion should keep any flooding restricted to the urban variety.

Fantastic! Maybe the power will go out again!!!

Luckily these storms will be moving, but still the potential for wind damage remains through the night given the linear nature to this convection. I think the severe potential will be worse north and west of Houston and more of a heavy rain threat throughout southeast Texas including the coastal areas. Frequent and dangerous lightning are also a good bet.

Will watch this throughout the overnight. The central gulf coast could really use rains from something like this. 18.98 inches down for the year in Baton Rouge, LA and almost 17 inches down in New Orleans.

Be safe tonight everyone.
Jim

Looks like it will be a mainly isolated wind damage event UNLESS the MCS can take a more of a rightward turn. If this happens, then it may meet up with better dynamics and a more widespread wind event may unfold. Either way, another round of heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning is likely tonight.

Nice!!! I am looking fwd to it!! but I am not staying up... I have to work tomorrow.. If its a good enough pounding, I will get up...

Good Sunday and happy father's day to all. Weatherwise for se Texas, looks like some heavy rains on the southeast side of Houston with 1-3 inches already falling and another inch possible during the next hour or so. Isolated strong winds are possible in gusts.

Radar suggests rainfall rates of over an inch per hour in the southeat suburbs of Houston. Areas south and east of Houston have picked up over 3 inches of rain in isolated areas based on doppler estimates.

Otherwise looks like will see some improving weather in the southeastern lone star state as the day continues to wear on.

Meanwhile it remains vry dry here in Maryland, too dry in fact that local reservoirs are beginning to drop below the full capacity. Reservoirs remain in good shape, but will see how long that lasts. It greatly depends on if this drought persists or not back east.

I'll post more on this drought soon on the usa forum.

Jim

It's POURING in Spring right now and rain chances are now up to 100% for tonight!

Pouring here too and some thunder!

Just got back from Michigan.....vacation. I watched TWC to keep on on the Friday-Sunday rains. Looks like I just got back in time for major rain event. The ULL looks good on satellite this evening.

Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006


TXZ164-177>179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0002.060618T2345Z-060619T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...
FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...
WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006


...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST TO THE NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE SHOULD DRIFT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL DRAW IN
RICH GULF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT COLLIDING WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA AND ROTATE FROM NEAR COLORADO COUNTY
ACROSS WALLER...FORT BEND...HARRIS...MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO
AND INTO POLK AND TRINITY COUNTIES. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE BAND FROM
COLORADO TO TRINITY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE COMMONPLACE...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA AND MAY
WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
RAPID FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREA. YOU SHOULD MONITOR YOU LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLOODS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY.
MOVE UP TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN YOUR CAR OR IN
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMONPLACE...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM.

That bit made me do a double take!
Just heard some thunder here in Baytown, and dark clouds.
I have the camera ready if we get a lot of rain.

So I guess we arent done with the rain yet?
It even looks kind of greenish outside...

It looks like most of the rain has cleard the area for the most part. I guess we should see more development over the area from now and into the overnight hours??? At least that is what I got out of the discussion. We didn't get a drop here in Conroe.

Radar is showing training to the NE of Houston but weakening cells over Metro Area. Here is an earlier update from the Houston-Galveston NWS Forecast Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE SOME BIG RAINS ON THE WAY. WILL BE HOISTING A FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA (MAINLY SE 2/3RDS OF THE REGION)...VERY
IMPRESSIVE FF SCENARIO IN THE WORKS. ABUNDANT CAPE >1500...PW
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF OF 1.9-2.05" AND A SLOW MOVING MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD BE DRIFTING SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
PERSISTENT LL FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
TIER OF COUNTIES.

Well Jeff pretty much answered my question. It looks like here shortly that strong storms will once again develop over the area. Here is what Jeff had to say via e-mail. If this pans out then we will see a heck of alot of rain indeed.

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for the SE 2/3rds of SE TX.

Potential exists for significant rainfall across the central tier of SE TX tonight.

Low level convergent boundary extending from Waller Co. to Aldine to N Liberty Co. is nearly stationary with numerous thunderstorms along the boundary training ENE. Closed mid level low has formed near KUTS (Huntsville) and is drifting SSW at about 5kts. Low level jet will increase after dark and transport PWS of 1.95 to 2.10 inches into the SE 1/2 of the area. 300mb winds are divergent across the central zones which will enhance lifting.

Current feeling is that thunderstorms may grow upscale into a stationary MCS right over the central counties including Harris tonight. Significant low level fetch off the Gulf will supply the complex with abundant tropical moisture producing excessive short term rainfall rates.

This setup is quite favorable for a significant amount of rainfall, but small details in the mesoscale will determine where the heaviest rain falls and how widespread it is. It is not out of the question that someone picks up 5-10 inches of rain by morning.

I wish we could get some that rain later. Every MCS over the past few days has died out before it reached us. We need LOTS of more rain to help with our drought.

I wonder if more will develop later tonight. For now it looks like most of it has cleared out, or moved off to the east.

From what I read (from the NWS and Jeff) is that development and lots of it is expected tonight. Well as of now I don't have a cloud in the sky at my house here in central Montgomery County. Looking at radar all convection is in the eastern sections of Southeast, Texas. It seems to me that the NWS is more concerned about the central portions of Southeast, Texas later tonight. It's been stated that the mid level low that formed over Huntsville was moving off to the SSW at 5 knots. After looking over satellite imagery it looks to be drifting off to the Southeast? Here's the vis. sat. loop.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

The weirdest thing was earlier it was pouring (hard) where I was, yet the sun was fully out!

We've gotten quite a bit of rain today. Storms rolled through this morning with very heavy rain and it lasted for several hours, intensities varying. Then we had showers off and on all afternoon. Tonight we've had some more good thunderstorms with an amazing lightning show all night. There's more developing behind these current storms and coming now.

It poured on Mother's Day as well. I guess Mother Nature doesn't want us swimming or doing outdoor activities on holidays because it always seems to rain on holidays, and not much in between. lol

Drench or drought - that's 2006 here so far

Yup... been following NEXRAD out of Lake Charles... sad to say it all seems to be drifting north....to NNE....

Send some of that stuff EAST! Our lawns are turning brown... (as if all the gray after the K-word passed wasn't bad enough!)

A2K