STORM2K

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. A WEAKNESS AT 500
MB...COUPLED WITH PW`S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND BROADLY DIVERGENT
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SPELL SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN. THE PW`S ARE
NEARLY TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE
GFS IS ALSO SHOWING SEVERAL STRONG VORTS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND VIRTUALLY NO CAPPING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. 250 MB
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS SO DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING TROPICAL
IS UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE? EITHER WAY...THIS MOISTURE WILL
HEAD NORTH TODAY.

THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS EVENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS
ON THE WAY. STORM MOTION WILL VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KNOTS SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW OR SFC BOUNDARY BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW A WIDER
AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRECIP BUT THE GFS PUSHES A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE ARE WED/THU. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS
PRECIP AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD AGAIN OCCUR. THIS TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF MORNING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE TEMPS BEGINNING SUNDAY. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. 43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GOING ZONES...MAINLY
TO RAISE POPS AREAWIDE (HIGHEST FOR THE SWRN ZONES). 12Z SOUNDING
DATA (FOR CRP) CAME IN RELATIVELY MOIST/UNCAPPED AND WITH ONGOING
RADAR TRENDS...IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT ISOLATED/SCT PCPN TO PRE-
VAIL LATER THIS AFTN GIVEN SOME HEATING. 41

Yankeegirl wrote:Nice, I am going to get my yard work done now, before it gets too nasty around here... I love the rain though, looking foward to it... Hey, I am going to San Antonio next week, maybe Wednesday... Any thoughts on the weather for there?

Yankeegirl wrote:Good, cause we are going to be doing alotta stuff outside, and I dont wanna have to stay in the house!! I really wish they would update the Houston NOAA site... I need a new job, maybe they could hire me!!!

southerngale wrote:As of right now, the NWS has Beaumont's forecast as 60% chance of heavy rain for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday (4th of July), Wednesday AND Thursday. Geesh!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... X&site=LCH

Stephanie wrote:

southerngale wrote:As of right now, the NWS has Beaumont's forecast as 60% chance of heavy rain for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday (4th of July), Wednesday AND Thursday. Geesh!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... X&site=LCH

The heavy rainmakers seem to be selecting new areas of the country each week. I know you guys need the rain and I hope that it doesn't all wash off. Be careful!!

southerngale wrote:We don't need it here. We've had TWO flooding rain events in less than a month. We were in a drought before that, but not anymore. Thanks though.

gboudx wrote:

southerngale wrote:We don't need it here. We've had TWO flooding rain events in less than a month. We were in a drought before that, but not anymore. Thanks though.

Send it North then please. Right up I-45 should do it.

southerngale wrote:

gboudx wrote:

southerngale wrote:We don't need it here. We've had TWO flooding rain events in less than a month. We were in a drought before that, but not anymore. Thanks though.

Send it North then please. Right up I-45 should do it.

I'll try, but I tried to send the last event to CajunMama in Lafayette and that didn't work so I doubt this will either. Cross your fingers, though.


Btw, after being in Severe or Extreme for quite a while, my little corner of Texas is the only area in Texas not in the drought on this drought map anymore. It looks odd, but that's what 2 huge rain events will do. So it looks like everyone else could use this rain!

--image clipped to save space--

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301952
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF PCPN NOTED ON RADAR TO OUR S/SW THIS AFTN AND WE`RE
STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
ATTM AS WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A VERY WET PICTURE FOR SETX
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PWS PROGGED TO SURGE TO AOA 2.0-2.4" AS THE
MASS OF CLOUDS/DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHING OVER THE WRN GULF
(FROM THE BAY O` CAMPECHE TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST) MOVES NWD TOWARD
THE AREA. WHILE THE AFTN SATELLITE LOOPS DO DEPICT A RATHER DECENT
FLARE-UP OF PCPN (JUST NORTH OF THE BAY)...SFC PRESSURES ARE STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE DOWN THERE (PER BUOY/OB REPORTS). AT ANY RATE THE
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN
FROM THE WSW SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MAINLY DI-
URNAL LIKE PCPN TOMORROW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUES. A BRIEF BREAK
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. BUT
EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL GOING WITH A VERY SLOW APPROACH/PASSAGE OF
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK (AS THE EAST COAST
TROFFINESS RETROGRADES SOME). WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME AS THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ON WHICH
TO FOCUS PCPN. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 91 74 90 74 / 20 40 40 50 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 89 74 88 74 / 30 60 60 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 79 87 79 / 30 60 60 60 60