STORM2K

Lots of watches and warnings (including a few tornado warnings) across the Northeast and Midwest. What is the likelihood of a major severe weather event out of this?

Not widespread severe, so not a major event. It's pretty bad in some other local areas though. Downburst LSRs in Ohio and WV. Currently there's a nasty tornado on the ground - St. Joseph Co., MI. Already a confirmed tornado report in for this storm as well.

Anybody got any photos of this tornado?

That tornado is news to me - they were so widespread I wasn't following it much (except in my area).

Very similar pattern today. Just about everywhere - except the upper Great Lakes and the west coast - is at risk for thunderstorms (and some could be severe, although no widespread outbreaks likely).

The St. Joseph, MI reported tornado was NOT one.

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds. ... &node=KIWX

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER OF ST. JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN DID A DAMAGE
SURVEY ACROSS HIS COUNTY THIS MORNING AND REACHED THE CONCLUSION
THAT THERE WERE NO TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS YESTERDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SOME TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THE STORM... THERE WAS NO INDICATION
OF DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

THE STORM EXHIBITED EXTREMELY STRONG ROTATION ON NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND THERE WERE SOME SPOTTER REPORTS DURING THE
STORM OF TORNADO SIGHTINGS. HOWEVER... BASED ON THE DAMAGE SURVEY...
IT APPEARS THAT THESE SIGHTINGS WERE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS THAT NEVER
REACHED THE GROUND.

Well, so much for that . . . there was a second report that came in time-stamped 01:55Z (coincidentally the time of the above scan) that reported the tornado over a lake . . . unfortunately that doesn't prove much of anything in terms of it touching down. Regardless, impressive radar signature for a low-topped storm.

CrazyC83 wrote:The St. Joseph, MI reported tornado was NOT one.

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds. ... &node=KIWX

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER OF ST. JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN DID A DAMAGE
SURVEY ACROSS HIS COUNTY THIS MORNING AND REACHED THE CONCLUSION
THAT THERE WERE NO TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS YESTERDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SOME TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THE STORM... THERE WAS NO INDICATION
OF DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

THE STORM EXHIBITED EXTREMELY STRONG ROTATION ON NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND THERE WERE SOME SPOTTER REPORTS DURING THE
STORM OF TORNADO SIGHTINGS. HOWEVER... BASED ON THE DAMAGE SURVEY...
IT APPEARS THAT THESE SIGHTINGS WERE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS THAT NEVER
REACHED THE GROUND.

Some emergency managers then have some explaining to do. Weren't they some of the first people that reported multiple sightings of tornadoes?

WE NEED TO GET THE PUBLIC UP TO SPEED ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FUNNEL CLOUDS, SCUD CLOUDS, & ACTUALL TORNADOES. Not to mention, info on Gustnadoes, Landspouts and Waterspouts.

WindRunner wrote:Well, so much for that . . . there was a second report that came in time-stamped 01:55Z (coincidentally the time of the above scan) that reported the tornado over a lake . . . unfortunately that doesn't prove much of anything in terms of it touching down. Regardless, impressive radar signature for a low-topped storm.

I'm surprised they have no video evidence of these. If this was a botched report on purpose, some "observers" are going to have some explaing to do as to why they scared the public in believing there was a possibly of strong to violent tornadoes out of this storm.

Incidently, the radar signature is good, but not that of a storm capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes.

michaelwmoss wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:The St. Joseph, MI reported tornado was NOT one.

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds. ... &node=KIWX

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER OF ST. JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN DID A DAMAGE
SURVEY ACROSS HIS COUNTY THIS MORNING AND REACHED THE CONCLUSION
THAT THERE WERE NO TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS YESTERDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SOME TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THE STORM... THERE WAS NO INDICATION
OF DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

THE STORM EXHIBITED EXTREMELY STRONG ROTATION ON NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND THERE WERE SOME SPOTTER REPORTS DURING THE
STORM OF TORNADO SIGHTINGS. HOWEVER... BASED ON THE DAMAGE SURVEY...
IT APPEARS THAT THESE SIGHTINGS WERE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS THAT NEVER
REACHED THE GROUND.

Some emergency managers then have some explaining to do. Weren't they some of the first people that reported multiple sightings of tornadoes?

WE NEED TO GET THE PUBLIC UP TO SPEED ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FUNNEL CLOUDS, SCUD CLOUDS, & ACTUALL TORNADOES. Not to mention, info on Gustnadoes, Landspouts and Waterspouts.

At a distance it can be VERY difficult to determine if you are looking at a tornado or funnel cloud. The debris cloud can be obsured by trees, buildings..etc. I dont see any reason why someone could not discern scud from a funnel cloud though. With all the water in my area telling the difference between a tornado and a waterspout can be difficult as well. The waterspouts than concern me the most are the ones spawned by thunderstorms rather than the "fair weather" kind. A fair weather spout is not likely to last more than a few seconds over land; one spawned by a thunderstorm can.

That's just it though. When most of the general public sees a low cloud hanging below a thunderstorm, they think it's a funnel cloud. Sometimes the scud even rotates around the meso which confuses folks even more.

How about this: If there is a T-storm in your area, be prepared for most any kind of severe weather, even brief.

I got nailed at about 4:20pm, 35mph winds, good bit of lightning, and very heavy rain for about 15 minutes. and some showers about an hour and a half ago.

Good point. The tornado warnings WERE warranted in that situation though, as there was significant rotation in the clouds and there were reports of funnel clouds.

CrazyC83 wrote:Good point. The tornado warnings WERE warranted in that situation though, as there was significant rotation in the clouds and there were reports of funnel clouds.

If the atmospheric conditions had been more favorable, no doubt in a my mind the chances of a strong to violent tornado out of that storm would have definately been possible. The Localized Shear in that area for a few hours was quite high.

michaelwmoss wrote:

WindRunner wrote:Well, so much for that . . . there was a second report that came in time-stamped 01:55Z (coincidentally the time of the above scan) that reported the tornado over a lake . . . unfortunately that doesn't prove much of anything in terms of it touching down. Regardless, impressive radar signature for a low-topped storm.

I'm surprised they have no video evidence of these. If this was a botched report on purpose, some "observers" are going to have some explaing to do as to why they scared the public in believing there was a possibly of strong to violent tornadoes out of this storm.

Incidently, the radar signature is good, but not that of a storm capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes.

The first report said it was from the observations of two different fire departments, one about 3 mi N and one about 3 mi S of the LSR location. Not sure about the source on the other one.


EDIT: here's the actual text for the two of them.

0145 3 S THREE RIVERS ST. JOSEPH MI 4190 8563 2 SEPERATE FIRE DEPARTMENTS REPORTED A TORNADO BETWEEN THREE RIVERS AND CONSTANTINE. (IWX)
0155 3 SE CENTREVILLE ST. JOSEPH MI 4189 8549 REPORT OF A TORNADO OVER FISH LAKE...BETWEEN CENTERVILLE AND STURGIS. RELAYED FROM COUNTY DISPATCH. (IWX)

Unfortuantely, the sources appear to not be archived in the SPC database.