STORM2K

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...SERN
NY...CT...MA...DE...RI...NJ...NERN MD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 221409Z - 221545Z

THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER E-CENTRAL PA...
WARM FRONT ARCHES NEWD OVER SERN NY BETWEEN BGM-MSV...THEN ESEWD
ACROSS CT/MA BORDER REGION. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO DRIFT NWD AS SFC
LOW MOVES ENEWD...TOWARD SERN NY. MEANWHILE SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH APCH OF GREAT LAKES MID-UPPER
TROUGH...RESULTING IN ENHANCED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKED FLOW
NE-SE OF CYCLONE CENTER. 100 M HEIGHT FALL WAS NOTED IN 12Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS AT PIT...WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED E
OF LOW. IN FCST SOUNDINGS...THIS YIELDS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS -- I.E. 0-1 KM AGL SRH 100-200 J/KG -- AND AT LEAST MRGL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHO
STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RATE OF SFC DIABATIC
HEATING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT...AND MODIFIED IAD/OKX RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE PARCELS ALREADY ARE ROOTED AT SFC OVER MUCH OF DISCUSSION
AREA. ONLY WEAK HEATING OF 2-4 DEG F IS NEEDED TO REMOVE REMAINING
SBCINH.

..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006

Well, in light of the previous tornado that paid a visit to Westchester County and the Hudson River, ANYTHING'S possible!

Yeah, looks like it's going to be a fun day for the metropolis . . . Richmond to Boston in the 5% tornado line (which is the highest I've seen in a while for the coast)

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... 1otlk.html


And you can already see the boundary where this squall line is going to form on radar (just into WV/west PA), with a weaker one (visible on sat) about 50 miles ahead of it.

Parts of this area were under a 10% chance of risk of tornadoes earlier this morning.

My area was just put under a severe thunderstorm watch. We've been having thundershowers all morning and now the sun is out again. It's like a steam bath out there!

Stephanie wrote:My area was just put under a severe thunderstorm watch. We've been having thundershowers all morning and now the sun is out again. It's like a steam bath out there!

I'm under it too, I wonder if I'll have a repeat of yesterday

The frontal boundary is starting to move into the slight risk area . . . it should start flaring up soon, maybe moreso once it clears the mountains. So far it isn't even producing any lightning, and the few isolated cells out front are doing the majority of the work so far. The south is also starting to look interesting as the cells down there seem to be forming a line across a few of the states.

I got hit hard, heavy rain and lightning for 2 hours

Sky turned very dark before hand, however it was the mildest storm this week. Only 25-30mph winds