Page 1 of 2
August 5th
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:48 pm
by dean
i took a look at both ETA and GFS and it's looking VERY good for a severe weather day here in MN and IA. GFS and ETA for the time being are in agreement with timing, dewpoints, shear, and instibility over central and southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Dew points look to be highest over western Minnesota, the eastern Dakotas, northwestern Iowa, and northeastern Nebraska, with high CAPE values and LI's ranging from -6 to -8, i can't wait for the new Day 2 convective outlook from the SPC, this very well may be my next chase!
Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:04 am
by wxmann_91
Wow, Dean! You're right. Svr wx outbreak for me to track would be a great birthday present.
Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:07 am
by conestogo_flood
SPC might upgrade to a moderate later today or tomorrow.
SPECIFIC DISTRIBUTION OF SVR THREATS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON STORM
MODE AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES NOT WELL-RESOLVED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
OVERALL PATTERN...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT SOME
CONCENTRATION/SIGNIFICANCE OF SVR POTENTIAL SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
MDT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK MAY BECOME MORE APPARENT FOR LATER OUTLOOKS.
Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 1:10 pm
by CrazyC83
At least a MDT - Minnesota looks to be the prime target. They almost put out a MDT now, they just need to hatch the 45. (I think not hatching it was intentional to prevent a premature MDT - I would have gone 30-hatched)
I'm confused, is this a derecho or a tornado outbreak brewing?
Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 1:14 pm
by wxmann_91
IMO, both. Key tomorrow is how we're going to get those helicity values to favor tornadoes. Right now this looks like a volatile situation, that is what I'm sure of.
Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 1:24 pm
by CrazyC83
The number of tornadoes could be underestimated if there is an outbreak, as northern Minnesota and northwestern Ontario especially are not heavily populated...
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:51 am
by dean
yep, chase day for me! targetting the Alexandria/Morris area, pulling out of MSP in about a hour and a half.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:34 am
by CrazyC83
Moderate Risk indeed, with 45-hatched for both wind and hail and 10 for tornadoes.
Could it be increased to a High Risk?
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 4:25 pm
by WindRunner
I don't think it will be, as the MOD area is the smallest it's been all day, and the 10 for tornadoes is gone, and wind is down to 30 hatched. Also not a lot of convection firing yet over the area, which could be a good sign or a bad sign - I thought I had posted something on here about the SRH's increasing in southern MN/IA area after the sun went down tonight, but I don't know what happened to it.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:45 pm
by CrazyC83
Looks like the cap locked itself in...this would be the second MDT bust in the last 2 weeks...
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:50 pm
by Bunkertor
What does that mean ?
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:36 pm
by WindRunner
Looks like the line over northern Nebraska is going to provide the real SVRs today . . . mostly wind, though - I just don't see the hail threat they talk about in the WW text.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:37 pm
by CrazyC83
There are tornado warnings around Lake of the Woods...both in Canada and the US...
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:41 pm
by CrazyC83
WFUS53 KFGF 052307
TORFGF
MNC135-052345-
/O.NEW.KFGF.TO.W.0030.060805T2307Z-060805T2345Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
607 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 602 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 7 MILES EAST OF PINECREEK...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE ABOUT...
9 MILES NORTH OF SALOL AT 620 PM CDT
7 MILES NORTH OF WARROAD AT 645 PM CDT
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES
FOR A STURDY BUILDING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
LAT...LON 4898 9638 4884 9637 4883 9532 4898 9534
$$
GV
One also just ended in southeastern Manitoba.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:30 pm
by WindRunner
Two tornado LSRs out for the Roseau storm:
2345 10 WNW WARROAD ROSEAU MN 4896 9552 MULTIPLE FUNNELS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM. (FGF)
0010 WARROAD ROSEAU MN 4891 9532 SEVEN TRAILERS OVERTURNED AT MARVIN WINDOWS FACTORY. (FGF)
As well as one 2.5" hail LSR. Sounds like a pretty powerful storm/winds, tornado or not.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:34 pm
by Bunkertor
CAPE seems to break through now.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:45 pm
by wxmann_91
CAPE seems to break through now.
Cap not Cape.
And today went exactly as planned.
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:48 pm
by Bunkertor
Seem´s my english needs to be polished. Is there any live -coverage ?
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:48 pm
by WindRunner
wxmann_91 wrote:CAPE seems to break through now.
Cap not Cape.
And today went exactly as planned.
Planned by who?
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 11:38 pm
by CrazyC83
Second MDT bust in two weeks.