STORM2K

Any idea on how active it is expected to be? Anything like last year?

(I know it is a bit early to get into it, but nothing is happening now...)

With a possible weak El Nino it could be quite active (a mean Trough with lots of wind shear, in Eastern NOAM with a mean Ridge in the Middle, and another mean Trough in the West).

Last November was quite wild for severe weather. Man, tornado outbreaks left and right and like 1 tornado in Ontario in mid-late November, the 3rd time in recorded history that has happened.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see it start earlier this year, as in late September or early October.

CrazyC83 wrote:I also wouldn't be surprised to see it start earlier this year, as in late September or early October.

Nor would I. It hasn't exactly been a quite summer season, but I have a feeling that it's an indicator that things are already generally set up pretty well come autumn.

FWIW, the CAS (a long range, as in several month, model) predicts below average temperatures throughout the U.S. in Fall.

I hope that this fall turns out to be very active with severe weather! It is fun to watch those frontal squall lines move in from the north and usher in cooler, breezy weather.

I second that!!! esp here where its 88 before the front and cools to 50 in 10 minutes!!1

The last 2 weeks have been the quietest period since February...but that is kinda what you expect in August.