SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

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Extremeweatherguy
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SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

#1 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:12 am

This next front looks to have much more of a punch than our last. Not only will it bring heavy showers and storms out ahead of it, but it will also be able to drop our highs into the upper 80s - lower 90s and our lows into the middle 60s.

Here is the latest forecast for Spring, TX:

This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 95. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Labor Day: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 69.

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 91.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91.


Also, here is the latest Houston AFD:

DISCUSSION...
SFC CHART SHOWING A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY/BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS EASE THIS BOUNDARY WESTWARD
THRU THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME ISO/SCT TSTMS POP ACROSS WRN PORTION OF
THE CWA TOWARD PEAK HEATING...ESP THE SW ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE
MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY. WILL ALSO THROW SOME LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE
HOU/GLS AREA IN CASE ANY ISO SEABREEZE STORMS MANAGE TO POP. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG WINDS.

COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO TX TODAY AND GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SE TX SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPORARILY HANGING UP NEAR THE COAST ON MON.
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MODELS STILL SHOW PERIODS OF PRECIP BETWEEN SUN AND TUE BUT KINDA
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ONE FAVORED AREA VERSUS ANOTHER. FIRST GUESS
WOULD BE TO FOCUS ON AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES FCST TO MOVE OVERHEAD THRU THAT TIME
PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE THE H85 FRONT MAY BE A PLAYER EVEN AFTER
"FROPA" TOO. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...CURRENT THINKING
IS THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUN
NIGHT/MON AND SOUTHERN AREAS MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO THE GULF LATE TUES AS
WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND EASTERN TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEGINNING WED. ONSHORE
WINDS RESUME FRI ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:51 pm, edited 27 times in total.
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#2 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:19 pm

I hope it blows through... I am readty for some cooler fall like weather!
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#3 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:33 pm

latest Spring, TX forecast is even cooler. It lowers Wednesday's high from 91F to 89F, and it lowers Tuesday night's low to 66F.
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#4 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:53 pm

bring it on!!!
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#5 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:51 pm

Yes Sir!!!!
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#6 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:37 pm

I just saw that Beaumont is forecasting lows down to 63F!

Houston will probably follow suit tomorrow as I saw that the GFS is trying to get the area down as cold as the upper 50s to lower 60s for at least one night out of this. :D
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#7 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:28 am

Spring, TX morning update still looks promising for much needed rainfall and cooler weather..

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Labor Day: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming northeast between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 68. North wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89.
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#8 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:14 pm

Gee look, Its all over cast all of a sudden!! I guess this is the begining of the wonder weather we are going to be getting over the next few days!!
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#9 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:53 pm

The front is approaching College station right now. There seems to be a significant temp. drop off behind it too.

In Waco right now it is 74F, and in College station it is 91F. That is a 17F drop behind the front.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:04 pm

Yeah, thats all good, but I wanted some rain!!! Looks like its going to be a dry front.... I love those fronts where ya get a nasty squall line and then the temp drops like 20 degrees in 10 minutes!!! Thats a real front!!
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#11 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:12 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Yeah, thats all good, but I wanted some rain!!! Looks like its going to be a dry front.... I love those fronts where ya get a nasty squall line and then the temp drops like 20 degrees in 10 minutes!!! Thats a real front!!
I know, I wanted some rain too. Still a 20% chance of light showers overnight, but no squall lines this time.

Can't wait for that first "real" front come October.
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#12 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:28 pm

According to the HPC, the front seems to be pushing through as we speak:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
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#13 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:40 pm

It looks like it wants to rain???? Maybe next time!!
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#14 Postby Yankeegirl » Tue Sep 05, 2006 12:36 pm

Holy Crap, its only gotten to 78 today!!! Is this fall? I dint know what its like to not be in the 90's!!!
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#15 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 05, 2006 2:40 pm

wow. Today was totally unexpected. It has been overcast with light rain since about 11am and so far NW Houston (Tomball airport) has not gotten above 76F, and is at only 73F right now. Also, where I am ATM it is only 73-74F right now. At this point, with more rain on the way, I doubt we will hit 80F today! In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see us hover in the lower to middle 70s for the rest of the afternoon! :eek:

An early taste of fall for sure..especially tonight when we will be well into the 60s with the light rain continuing.
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#16 Postby Yankeegirl » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:08 pm

Right now in the Cypress area its 72 and drizzle...
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#17 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:51 pm

latest from HOOKS airport in Tomball:

Overcast

72°F
(22°C)
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#18 Postby Yankeegirl » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:16 pm

better get out the winter clothes!!! :cheesy: :ggreen: :cheesy:
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#19 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:55 pm

Official highs across the area today:

Houston Intercontinental Airport - 79F
Tomball - 76F
Hobby Airport - 83F
Conroe - 78F
Spring - 76F
Brenham - 77F
Sugar Land - 80F

looks like there was a cool spot over NW Houston where highs only reached the middle 70s due to an all day overcast sky and rain. In other areas they were able to get into the upper 70s and lower 80s due to a few breaks in the cloud cover/rain. These highs are 8-15 degrees below normal for this point in November. Tonight is forecast to be in the middle 60s, which is about 4-8 degrees below normal for this time of the year. What a welcome relief!

Current temperature in Spring - 70F
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#20 Postby southerngale » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:35 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I just saw that Beaumont is forecasting lows down to 63F!

Houston will probably follow suit tomorrow as I saw that the GFS is trying to get the area down as cold as the upper 50s to lower 60s for at least one night out of this. :D


Well, they did raise the 63°F low a little.

We were in the mid to upper 80's today, but when it started raining, the temperature dropped quite a bit. Nothing heavy, just some light rain.
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