STORM2K

It seems there is a significant front moving across the upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.

It is a difficult forecast, since there is a cap in play (unlike on 9/22) and the atmosphere doesn't seem super-unstable. I'm not totally confident of an outbreak here...

Well we don't need a major outbreak to have nasty stuff. We got wacked here in chicago-land last night. We just moved into a new home last weekend in New Lenox (located east of Joliet IL/about 30 miles SW of downtown Chicago).

The lights going out and then the tornado siren blaring scared the bejeezus out of me and the girls (hint... make sure candles are first thing you unpack in new home... we didn't do that to our regret!). We were without power for 9 hours and I have family members who still don't have power and Com-Ed said no power probably untill 9PM tonight for one member.

The Hubby reports that our old house about 3 miles from downtown Chicago lost a large window in front. Some how it got blown out and there are allot of tree's down everywhere. The basement was flooded and garbage all over the place outside. There is a lot of flooding and tree's down all over the chicagoland and SW suburbs (sure there is the same prob on the north side) which is making getting around a headache.... honestly we have allot of cleanup from round 1... we are not looking forward to round 2 tonight!

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DULUTH
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INTENSIFYING ALONG WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHEAST SD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO MN...WHILE OTHER STORMS
DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WI. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DULUTH
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INTENSIFYING ALONG WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHEAST SD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO MN...WHILE OTHER STORMS
DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WI. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 031728
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 807 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MNC001-003-009-011-017-021-025-035-041-051-059-065-067-093-095-
097-111-115-121-137-141-145-149-151-153-155-159-167-171-
040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0807.061003T1730Z-061004T0100Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
BIG STONE CARLTON CASS
CHISAGO CROW WING DOUGLAS
GRANT ISANTI KANABEC
KANDIYOHI MEEKER MILLE LACS
MORRISON OTTER TAIL PINE
POPE SHERBURNE ST. LOUIS
STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT
TODD TRAVERSE WADENA
WILKIN WRIGHT


NDC077-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0807.061003T1730Z-061004T0100Z/

ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

RICHLAND


SDC109-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0807.061003T1730Z-061004T0100Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ROBERTS


WIC005-007-013-031-095-107-113-129-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0807.061003T1730Z-061004T0100Z/

WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRON BAYFIELD BURNETT
DOUGLAS POLK RUSK
SAWYER WASHBURN


LSZ144-145-146-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0807.061003T1730Z-061004T0100Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN

DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI

PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 807 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD WI LS 031730Z - 040100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NNW VVV/ORTONVILLE MN/ - 65SE DLH/DULUTH MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /55S FAR - 56SE DLH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

LAT...LON 46639673 46959122 45369122 45049673

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 807 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 807...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MN...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS WATCH AREA...AIDING IN
INITIATION. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS...COUPLED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...HART


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 807...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MN...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WI BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS WATCH AREA...AIDING IN
INITIATION. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS...COUPLED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 032030
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

TORNADO WATCH 808 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MNC013-015-019-037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-079-085-091-099-
103-109-123-127-129-131-139-143-147-157-161-163-165-169-
040500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0808.061003T2035Z-061004T0500Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER
DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT
FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE
HENNEPIN HOUSTON LE SUEUR
MARTIN MCLEOD MOWER
NICOLLET OLMSTED RAMSEY
REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE
SCOTT SIBLEY STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WINONA


WIC011-017-033-035-063-091-093-109-121-123-040500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0808.061003T2035Z-061004T0500Z/

WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN
EAU CLAIRE LA CROSSE PEPIN
PIERCE ST. CROIX TREMPEALEAU
VERNON


ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 808 TORNADO MN WI 032035Z - 040500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20SW RWF/REDWOOD FALLS MN/ - 40SE EAU/EAU CLAIRE WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /13SW RWF - 36SE EAU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

LAT...LON 45209537 45339091 43599091 43479537

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 808 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

When was the last time you saw hail to 3 inches listed in a watch? Whenever it was, I'd bet it was at least a decent severe day. SPC has a 30-hatched hail and 15 tornado up for southern WI and SE MN. Since the storms have a way to go until they get there, looks like these might be some evening-into-the-night storms.

yea, i'm not so certain about the tornado threat any more. being here in the tornado watch, it's still kinda cool and cloudy, atleast here in the northern part of the watch.

WindRunner wrote:When was the last time you saw hail to 3 inches listed in a watch? Whenever it was, I'd bet it was at least a decent severe day. SPC has a 30-hatched hail and 15 tornado up for southern WI and SE MN. Since the storms have a way to go until they get there, looks like these might be some evening-into-the-night storms.

Last time I recall was 8/24.

I'm not so enthusiastic about the threat today as the cap has remained steady. Any storms that manage to develop will be elevated.

Don't really see why SPC had a 15% TORN probabilities up today.

Well . . . then that example didn't work. And yes, I can't agree with them on the tornado risk either . . . maybe a 5% at most. And dean has a good point . . . it has been very cloudy there all day. Right now I see a huge mess of moderate rain up around the point of Lake Superior, which could very easily drain what little true potential the atmosphere could have used.

Satellite over the past two hours shows that cluster of rain with some pretty good low-level inflow channels coming up from the south, through the MOD risk area. That could very well kill any chance for development as well.

tornado warning out right now for the Menominie, WI area... only tor warning i think there has been all day.

The overdone MDT has busted as I thought it would. I didn't think a MDT was ever necessary.

At leat it won't be a tornado outbreak, but better safe than sorry. Right?

TexasStooge wrote:At leat it won't be a tornado outbreak, but better safe than sorry. Right?

Better safe than sorry is right.

If the cirrus deck had not arrived, the MDT may just have verified.