STORM2K

HOLY SMOKES Just finished with onel HEAVY thunderstorm at 0355 a.m. this morning....check THIS out

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FLASH FLOOD WATCH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST THU OCT 5 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-051900-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.A.0009.061005T1900Z-061007T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE..
LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE..
PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO..
CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO..
WUPATKI N.M...TUBA CITY...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE..
ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK..
HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP..
PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...COTTONWOOD...CAMP VERDE..
CORDES JUNCTION...BAGDAD...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M...DILKON..
KYKOTSMOVI
400 AM MST THU OCT 5 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...COCONINO
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...GRAND CANYON COUNTRY...KAIBAB
PLATEAU...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...MARBLE AND GLEN
CANYONS...BLACK MESA AREA...CHINLE VALLEY...CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
DEFIANCE PLATEAU...NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS...WHITE
MOUNTAINS...OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS...YAVAPAI COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS.

* FROM NOON MST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* A VERY MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING ARIZONA WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

And along the same lines


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 051036 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 335 AM MST THU OCT 05 2006 .SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX IS PRODUCING A VERY STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING THIS MORNING AS THIS FLOW IS PRODUCING GOOD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. MODEL PROGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS FLOW REGIME...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCING PRECIPITATION THROUGH OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. ON FRIDAY...THE CA COAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO KICK OUT A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAILING ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...HEAVIER RAIN...AND POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

Yep, storm is hitting us, too (not the bulk of it yet, though). Unfortunately I'm north of the heaviest rain.