STORM2K

Since the watch includes parts of SE Texas I think this is fair game. Flash Flood Watch!

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD
PRODUCE FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CENTRAL...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-160500-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.A.0006.061016T0000Z-061017T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...RAPIDES AND ST. LANDRY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST.
MARTIN...ST. MARY AND UPPER ST. MARTIN IN SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND VERMILION IN WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...VERNON IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* LARGE MASS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF IS
EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING TO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AT MID DAY MONDAY. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OVER LAND AREAS
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS
AVERAGING 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO 10
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THESE HEAVY
RAINS WILL MAKE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS
POSSIBLE. SOME RIVERS AND BAYOUS COULD RISE TO FLOOD LEVELS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Odd that a FFW hasn't yet been hoisted from the League City boyz. Are they playing it safe or sleeping this Sunday afternoon?

JenBayles wrote:Odd that a FFW hasn't yet been hoisted from the League City boyz. Are they playing it safe or sleeping this Sunday afternoon?

They probably decided to issue one after looking at this. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

That's a huge mass of rain and storms about to move onshore in Louisiana. We need it though so we can handle it (hopefully).

Offshore Sabine Pass sustained winds of 40mph with gusts to 50mph and 12 ft. seas

Still not sold on the whole flooding event for here... I dunno....

Seems like it has been pretty windy in many places today, but here in NW Houston it never has really been too strong. I wonder why that is?

Been rainy all day.

2.46" here in League City but we havebeen quite wet so its all runoff. Here is Magnolia Creek just behine my house after todays rainfall.

I am seriously wondering if this SPC "slight risk" is going to bust. There has not been a single severe warning all day. In fact, besides the brief heavy downpours this morning, this has been one of the most disappointing weather days in awhile. Yesterday I expected high winds, heavy rains and severe weather for today...and so far all I have recieved was brief heavy rains, virtually no winds (except breezy around showers), and no severe weather to speak of. This dark and gloomy weather with drizzle and temps. in the mid/upper 70s (with humidity) and no wind is not very fun at all. In fact, it is actually quite depressing (being dark all day that is).

I've had .91" so far today

18Z GFS showing it becoming VERY chilly by next Sunday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

I hear ya Extreme. We've had everything from short periods of pounding rain, to sun peeking out from the clouds. Not much in the way of wind. Overall, just a gloomy day. However, I'm not getting the depression over it - kind of nice for a change and gives me a great excuse for being lazy and cooking today. Currently have an herb-rubbed rib roast in the oven and sides are almost ready. Smells great in the house right now!

One word Jen.......Yummy

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am seriously wondering if this SPC "slight risk" is going to bust. There has not been a single severe warning all day. In fact, besides the brief heavy downpours this morning, this has been one of the most disappointing weather days in awhile. Yesterday I expected high winds, heavy rains and severe weather for today...and so far all I have recieved was brief heavy rains, virtually no winds (except breezy around showers), and no severe weather to speak of. This dark and gloomy weather with drizzle and temps. in the mid/upper 70s (with humidity) and no wind is not very fun at all. In fact, it is actually quite depressing (being dark all day that is).

Maybe I've always misunderstood the meaning of "slight risk" but I always thought it meant severe storms were possible (slight risk), so I don't see how it would bust. It's just warning us that the potential is there. Also, I wouldn't get upset that there haven't been any severe warnings...I doubt anyone really WANTS severe weather and the rain all day has been more than enough for those still recovering from Rita. It's hardly stopped here all day, and while we haven't had any damaging winds that I'm aware of (Thank God), it sure has been windy, particularly late this afternoon and this evening.

JenBayles wrote:I hear ya Extreme. We've had everything from short periods of pounding rain, to sun peeking out from the clouds. Not much in the way of wind. Overall, just a gloomy day. However, I'm not getting the depression over it - kind of nice for a change and gives me a great excuse for being lazy and cooking today. Currently have an herb-rubbed rib roast in the oven and sides are almost ready. Smells great in the house right now!

And what time are we sitting down for dinner?

CajunMama wrote:

JenBayles wrote:I hear ya Extreme. We've had everything from short periods of pounding rain, to sun peeking out from the clouds. Not much in the way of wind. Overall, just a gloomy day. However, I'm not getting the depression over it - kind of nice for a change and gives me a great excuse for being lazy and cooking today. Currently have an herb-rubbed rib roast in the oven and sides are almost ready. Smells great in the house right now!

And what time are we sitting down for dinner?

You beat me to the question and I am close by!!!!

southerngale wrote:

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am seriously wondering if this SPC "slight risk" is going to bust. There has not been a single severe warning all day. In fact, besides the brief heavy downpours this morning, this has been one of the most disappointing weather days in awhile. Yesterday I expected high winds, heavy rains and severe weather for today...and so far all I have recieved was brief heavy rains, virtually no winds (except breezy around showers), and no severe weather to speak of. This dark and gloomy weather with drizzle and temps. in the mid/upper 70s (with humidity) and no wind is not very fun at all. In fact, it is actually quite depressing (being dark all day that is).

Maybe I've always misunderstood the meaning of "slight risk" but I always thought it meant severe storms were possible (slight risk), so I don't see how it would bust. It's just warning us that the potential is there. Also, I wouldn't get upset that there haven't been any severe warnings...I doubt anyone really WANTS severe weather and the rain all day has been more than enough for those still recovering from Rita. It's hardly stopped here all day, and while we haven't had any damaging winds that I'm aware of (Thank God), it sure has been windy, particularly late this afternoon and this evening.

Here is the definition of Slight risk from the SPC:

SLGT risk implies well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but in small numbers and/or low coverage. Depending on the size of the area, approximately 5-25 reports of ¾ inch of larger hail, and/or 5-25 wind events, and/or 1-5 tornadoes would be possible.

We havn't even seen one severe report today. A bust so far.

I am not really depressed we havn't had severe weather though, I am more depressed over the fact that it has been dark, still and gloomy all day. I can't stand these dark days unless there is something else to make them bearable (such as wind, unusual temperatures, snow, etc). It would have been nice to have at least seen some lightning with the little bit of rain I got earlier, or may be have some nice 20-30mph winds this afternoon, but here in NW Houston neither of the two has happened. Instead, all it has been is gloomy, nasty and wet..nothing to do outside, and lots of artificial lighting inside.

EWG...

Might be time to take that "E" out of your name...Could just save you some heartbreak...

Here in Baytown I have had 3.75 to near 4.00 inches of rain last night, and today.