STORM2K

Posted: **Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:25 pm**

It's raining for a few seconds, then stopping, then raining. Weird. Temp is 79.

Posted: **Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:26 pm**

I expect more storms to form later tonight. I expect they will be here between 2 to 4 AM. I am going to lose sleep over this. :grr:

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:03 am**

No need to lose sleep over them. If they wake ya up, they wake ya up. If they don't then you won't lose sleep.

PS...ptarmaigan...put your city in profile please. I like to know where people are from and we have so many members i can't remember unless it's right in front of me!

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:22 am**

Well its cleared Austin, its 57 there... 74 here...

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 1:21 am**

Good Morning,

I am in the very southernmost part of Walker County(halfway between Conroe and Huntsville), just a couple of miles west of I-45. The front hasn't made it here, yet. It's been raining steadily for several hours, but the temp is currently 70 (1:15 am). We've been lucky, with no severe weather, only sporadic thunder. I'm getting very concerned about the flooding potential. It is highly unusual to get the steady downpours, we've received.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 1:22 am**

Front has cleared Brenham.... and my satellite is acting up.... :roll:

no storms or rain yet...

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 1:31 am**

Houston, we have rain.... no thunder or lightning.... but rain... quick downpour... and nice gusty winds...still 71 out...

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 6:06 am**

seems like this flood watch was (for the most part) a bust for the Houston metro area!

Now prepare for a cool day. We have already hit our high of 70F overnight and we should drop through the 60s during the day. Lows tonight will flirt with the upper 40s!

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 8:00 am**

I woke up around 6:15 and it was 60 degrees outside. It's now 8 in the morning and the temp has dropped to 57 with a stiff northwest wind! Now this is what I'm talking about! I don't see us getting up to 69 degrees which is currently forecasted for my area. We've got a steady breeze out of the NNW from 10 to 15 mph and steady overcast for most of the day.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 8:23 am**

Will chances for rain ever end for SE TX? We did not get much rainfall yesterday from Houston south toward the coast.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
635 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL FLOODING FROM
RAINFALL EARLIER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER POLK...SAN JACINTO...AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY TWO...FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS THREE AND FOUR...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTER A DRY MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:29 am**

Nothing here.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:10 am**

Johnny wrote:I woke up around 6:15 and it was 60 degrees outside. It's now 8 in the morning and the temp has dropped to 57 with a stiff northwest wind! Now this is what I'm talking about! I don't see us getting up to 69 degrees which is currently forecasted for my area. We've got a steady breeze out of the NNW from 10 to 15 mph and steady overcast for most of the day.

That 69º was hit around whatever time the front came through. The temp will be dropping all day at a slow clip or remain nearly the same temp it is at this time.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:30 am**

I'm looking forward to drier skies and cooler temps. Water is everywhere! Village Creek is causing major flooding and has exceeded its flood record of 27.6 feet. It was at 28.0 feet early this morning and still rising. Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
Many roads and highways are underwater and unpassable around here, as well as houses that have flooded.

Pine Island Bayou was at 30.5 feet this morning...flood stage is 25.0 feet. Homes in the Pinewood subdvision and Bevil Oaks have water in them and many streets are flooded. High water covers the bridge leading in and out of Pinewood.

Many school districts in the area are closed...some have just been starting later in the morning.

Hardin and Tyler counties are asking for the counties to be declared a disaster area.

This has really been a bad, widespread flooding event in Southeast and East Texas.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:38 am**

BRRRRRRR! Nearly froze myself walking the dogs this morning, and really froze going to the grocery store afterward. Can someone tell me why they have to blow the A/C at colder temps than the current 60 degrees outside? All the store employees were bundled up in jackets. Can you say, "Turn up the freakin' thermostat?"

What a bullet we dodged here in Houston, huh? Currently enjoying staying in and observing the cold windy day outside. Now what do I have in the kitchen to occupy my time.....
:cheesy:

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 3:07 pm**

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID
CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SE TX TONIGHT. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER SE TX FRI/FRI EVENING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SE TX LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RETURN NORTH INTO SE TX AS A WARM FRONT. PWS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS SRN HALF OF SE TX BY LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTING
TO SEE TWO ROUNDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL
TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE SECOND
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES SE TX.
FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (2+ INCH PWS) OFF THE
COAST FOR THIS EVENT. WILL GO 30 POPS BY SAT AFTN...THEN 40-50 POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY 18Z
SUNDAY SO EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID DRYING EARLY SUNDAY. SHEAR PROFILES DO
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE BY SAT AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS POINTED OUT IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY
RISE A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SE TX SUN AFTN AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
COOL/DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SE TX DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS PAINTS A RATHER OMINOUS SCENARIO WITH VERY DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH ALLOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH INTO SE TX AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE 12Z ECMWF...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE CANADIAN SHOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST AND REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE. ANOTHER
WILD-CARD WILL BE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW HAVE BLANKETED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
POPS/TEMPS BELOW 12Z MEXMOS GUIDANCE.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 6:32 pm**

I am beginning to think that tonight may be colder than forecast. We have already dropped into the lower/middle 60s before sunset (62.6F on my thermometer at 6:35pm) and within the last two hours we have lowered our dewpoints by nearly 10F (from 55F at 4pm to 46F at 6pm). My prediction is for middle 40s (at least) in my area tonight for lows with upper 40s at IAH and lower 40s in Conroe.

The NWS will probably also lower their 49-52F lows another few degrees this evening if the trend continues.

BTW: A dewpoint reading of 46F was now forecast to reach us until 3am this morning here in Spring. We are way ahead of scehdule on our lowering dewpoints.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:17 pm**

7pm Temperatures and dewpoints:

IAH = 65F/48F

Hooks = 63F/45F

Hobby = 67F/52F

Conroe = 61F/46F

College Station = 61F/41F

Brenham = 59F/41F

Galveston = 70F/57F

**My outdoor thermometer is at 60F at 7:15pm**

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:56 pm**

Paradise EWG!

Perfect Houston weather. It was downright chilly with the downtown canyon effect.

Posted: **Thu Oct 19, 2006 8:09 pm**

8pm Temperatures and Dewpoints around area:

IAH = 63F/47F

Hooks = 60F/47F

Hobby = 65F/52F

Conroe = 58F/47F

College Station = 59F/43F

Brenham = 55F/43F

Galveston = 69F/56F

**At this rate...most areas north of I-10 should be well into the 50s by 9pm.**

Latest temperature on my thermometer = 58.6F

STORM2K

SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday