STORM2K

Last Saturday, according to the NWS there was a 0% chance of rain or snow with sunny skies. We got dumped on with rain. Tuesday, 3-5 inches of snow was supposed to fall and the chance of snow was 90%. None fell. Today the forecast says sunny (and still does). It is snowing.

I can forecast the weather better by flipping a coin.

Scott Patterson wrote:Last Saturday, according to the NWS there was a 0% chance of rain or snow with sunny skies. We got dumped on with rain. Tuesday, 3-5 inches of snow was supposed to fall and the chance of snow was 90%. None fell. Today the forecast says sunny (and still does). It is snowing.

I can forecast the weather better by flipping a coin.

Sounds like they are taking forecasts from somewhere besides where you actually live. That is some pretty bad busting!!!
However, I do think that shooting could be a little extreme! Maybe just a sound thrashing will wake them up.

Sounds like they are taking forecasts from somewhere besides where you actually live.

Since the nearest NWS regional headquarters is 150 miles away, there could be some truth to that.

Anyway, on a different note, I've seen forecast vary by over 30 degrees between different weather websites for this location .

Here's is a good example:

Last December 8, weather.com was forecasting 5F. NOAA was forecasting -25F, a difference of 30 degrees. The actual low was -20.

Scott Patterson wrote:Last Saturday, according to the NWS there was a 0% chance of rain or snow with sunny skies. We got dumped on with rain. Tuesday, 3-5 inches of snow was supposed to fall and the chance of snow was 90%. None fell. Today the forecast says sunny (and still does). It is snowing.

I can forecast the weather better by flipping a coin.

When I was about 14 or so the forecast one January day was for "partly cloudy". Well thanks to what I believe was an upper air disturbance combined with a weak coastal low we got about 6 inches of "partly cloudy", enough to close the schools . Local mets were caught off guard..not just the NWS either. Every now and then Mother Nature has to show man who is REALLY boss.

I got the mother of all forecast busts.

March 2001, the local weather stations are in a panic, they're calling, 25-30 inches of snow, it could be worse then 1996, get out and stock up now! People are rushing to stock up, it's a last minute panic.

Well......................

The area got 1-3 inches of snow and another inch of rain and sleet. One weatherman was run out of Philadelphia by death threats. To this day I have no confidence in our local news stations forecast. Even people who don't follow the weather around here remember it. Personally, I measured 4 inches but half of it was sleet.

I named the storm "The No Show Blizzard" March 4-6 2001

The area got 1-3 inches of snow and another inch of rain and sleet. One weatherman was run out of Philadelphia by death threats. To this day I have no confidence in our local news stations forecast.

Thats a little extreme in my opinion.

I'd agree with that.

I remember a lot of extremes when I lived in Raleigh. One was during Jan. 2000 when they called for 1-3" of snow and we ended up with 24", and the other in Dec. 2000 when they called for 15-20" of snow and we ended up with less than an inch. I also remember in April 2001 they called for a high in the middle 50s with light showers and by that afternoon it was 35F with snow and graupel flying everywhere. Seems like they had quite a few bad forecasts when I lived up there..

John Bolaris is the one they ran out of town, heres some reading, note the main focus of this article.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bolaris

Heres an article about it

Death threats for flopped storm of the century

After warning viewers in Philadelphia about "The Storm of the Decade," that never hit the city, WCAU's meteorologist John Bolaris says he has been snowed in by a blizzard of angry e-mails and has even received a number of death threats. Bolaris, who was crowned the "Hype King" by the Philadelphia Daily News’ readers for his predictions regarding the storm, began warning television viewers about the storm last Wednesday and encouraged viewers on Sunday to stay home from work the next day. "I feel like a marked man," Bolaris told the Philadelphia Inquirer after the Blizzard of '01 fizzled. "One of the e-mails said, ‘You disgust me. People like you should not be on the planet,’" said Bolaris. "I got a message on my voicemail that said, ‘If I owned a gun, there would be one less person I'd need to worry about.’" The weatherman will reportedly appear on Howard Stern’s nationally syndicated radio show today.

Category 5 wrote:I got the mother of all forecast busts.

The area got 1-3 inches of snow and another inch of rain and sleet. One weatherman was run out of Philadelphia by death threats. To this day I have no confidence in our local news stations forecast. Even people who don't follow the weather around here remember it. Personally, I measured 4 inches but half of it was sleet.

I named the storm "The No Show Blizzard" March 4-6 2001

Its easy to bust on a forecaster when you don't do it yourself. I don't know the situation, but it could be that if the temperatures aloft were 1-2 degrees colder, the huge snow forecast could have been realized. you'll get a better than 10-1 ratio up there and probably closer to 20-1. It really wasn't THAT bad of a forecast. Unfortunately, most of the public that ran him off are completely ignorant on the whole subject.

It was that storm that tought me exactly how tricky these storms can be.

But still, the media was irresponsible with this storm, they caused panic 5 days out.

Before the Presidents Day Storm of 2003, due to this flop, they said "Snow until further notice"

I've heard that Philadelphia weatherman story before. If people realized that weather is ever-changing, maybe they wouldn't freak out so much. But I agree, you shouldn't hype things 5 days out.

The biggest bust I can think of off the top of my head right now was when we were supposed to get 8 inches and we ended up with nothing. Last November, as little as 1 day before, we were forecast to get downpouring, heavy rain, and we got nothing...1 week later, the same thing happened.

Its easy to bust on a forecaster when you don't do it yourself. I don't know the situation, but it could be that if the temperatures aloft were 1-2 degrees colder, the huge snow forecast could have been realized. you'll get a better than 10-1 ratio up there and probably closer to 20-1. It really wasn't THAT bad of a forecast. Unfortunately, most of the public that ran him off are completely ignorant on the whole subject

Agreed. Here in SE VA whether we get rain, snow, or sleet depends alot on the direction the wind is coming from due to the proximity of the water. A seemingly insignificant change in wind direction can bust a forecast. Thats why here in the winter we have learned to expect the unexpected.

I don't blame them for getting the forecast wrong, I blame them for the fear mongering "Storm of the century" hype.

Category 5 wrote:I don't blame them for getting the forecast wrong, I blame them for the fear mongering "Storm of the century" hype.

THAT is so true.

Especially considering, it wouldn't of been the storm of the century anyway.

Category 5 wrote:I don't blame them for getting the forecast wrong, I blame them for the fear mongering "Storm of the century" hype.

that would be 95% of the media

wall_cloud wrote:

Category 5 wrote:I got the mother of all forecast busts.

The area got 1-3 inches of snow and another inch of rain and sleet. One weatherman was run out of Philadelphia by death threats. To this day I have no confidence in our local news stations forecast. Even people who don't follow the weather around here remember it. Personally, I measured 4 inches but half of it was sleet.

I named the storm "The No Show Blizzard" March 4-6 2001

Its easy to bust on a forecaster when you don't do it yourself. I don't know the situation, but it could be that if the temperatures aloft were 1-2 degrees colder, the huge snow forecast could have been realized. you'll get a better than 10-1 ratio up there and probably closer to 20-1. It really wasn't THAT bad of a forecast. Unfortunately, most of the public that ran him off are completely ignorant on the whole subject.

I heard the low went further inland than expected, so those 25-30" amounts, went further inland as well. In retrospect, a track a hundred miles to the east would've shut down the Megalopolis.