Severe WX outbreak, tornadoes Dec28-31 TX to NC
Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2006 11:19 am
What's coming? The SPC says tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds all over the south this week.
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Severe WX outbreak, tornadoes Dec28-31 TX to NC
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Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2006 3:16 pm
Watch where the track of the low goes. This will help to determine the areas that will be impacted. A more southern track squeezes the threat further south. A more northerly track widens the impact area.
Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2006 4:51 pm
Birmingham:
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALL LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH. THE DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A 850 MB JET OF 65 KTS...
500 MB JET OF 90 KTS...AND 250 MB JET OF 110 KTS. NOT TO MENTION...
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH LIFTED INDICES -1 TO
-3 AND SURFACE BASED CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS...
INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH A SQUALL LINE
MOVING THROUGH. TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL WITH THE STRONG
SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS
MODEL FASTEST...CANADIAN MODEL SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND EUROPEAN
MODEL ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER. AT THIS TIME...PREFER A BLEND
OF ALL MODEL DATA...NOT QUITE AS FAST THE THE GFS MODEL. WITH THIS
THINKING...THINK THE 2 AM TO NOON CST TIME FRAME WOULD HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. TYPICALLY...THIS IS NOT THE BEST
TIME OF DAY OR YEAR TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS
SYSTEM DOES LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND BEARS CLOSE WATCHING.
ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALL LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH. THE DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A 850 MB JET OF 65 KTS...
500 MB JET OF 90 KTS...AND 250 MB JET OF 110 KTS. NOT TO MENTION...
A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH LIFTED INDICES -1 TO
-3 AND SURFACE BASED CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS...
INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HWO.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH A SQUALL LINE
MOVING THROUGH. TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL WITH THE STRONG
SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS
MODEL FASTEST...CANADIAN MODEL SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND EUROPEAN
MODEL ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER. AT THIS TIME...PREFER A BLEND
OF ALL MODEL DATA...NOT QUITE AS FAST THE THE GFS MODEL. WITH THIS
THINKING...THINK THE 2 AM TO NOON CST TIME FRAME WOULD HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. TYPICALLY...THIS IS NOT THE BEST
TIME OF DAY OR YEAR TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS
SYSTEM DOES LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND BEARS CLOSE WATCHING.
ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2006 1:04 am
I feel this could be one of the greatest double-whammies in recent memory, tornadoes + blizzards...sorta reminds me of January 1999...
Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2006 1:32 am
I hope it is NOTHING like January 1999. I lived in Arkansas at the time and it brings back bad memories.
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:24 pm
I live Jacksoville, Florida should I be watching the wx this weekend?
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 11:11 am
Forecasters shift tornado-risk upwards. 10 % now at the TX gulf coast.
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 11:33 am
Bunkertor wrote:Forecasters shift tornado-risk upwards. 10 % now at the TX gulf coast.
Yeah but still a SLGT risk. I don't see a major outbreak at this point, but some scattered tornadoes - kinda like Christmas Day in Florida.
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 2:43 pm
Already 3 tornadoes reported and two watches.
I'd up it to MDT personally, with a 15-hatched tornado risk...
I'd up it to MDT personally, with a 15-hatched tornado risk...
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 4:23 pm
9 counties in NCTX are currently under TORNADO WARNINGS
TORNADO WATCH TILL 8:00PM TONIGHT...............
TORNADO WATCH TILL 8:00PM TONIGHT...............
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 4:24 pm
they put out a small moderate risk in SE Texas with a 15% tornado but not hatched. all tornado reports so far, not any hail/wind. storms dont really look that impressive except for the fact that they are still producing tornadoes.