STORM2K

Okay, this is only experimental, but interesting. Here, daily I will post the days 4 day earthquake forecasts for major cities across the USA using this website http://www.quakeprediction.com/ which sometimes predicts successful earthquakes, and some it doesn't. Remember, this is experimental.

4 Day Earthquakes Forecast


February 1st - February 4th

California:
San Diego, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Escondido, Indio, La Mesa, Oceanside, Palm Springs, Riverside, Santa Ana and Tijuana Mexico. (33N, 117W)
4 Day Forecast; 2.6 to 2.1 earthquake in the San Diego area.

Yuma, Arizona EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Blythe, Brawley, Mexicali. (33N, 115W)
4 Day Forecast; 4.7 to 4.9 earthquake in the Yuma Arizona area.

Los Angeles, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Cajon Pass, Long Beach, Northridge, Palmdale, Pasadena, Pomona, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Fernando, Santa Ana, Santa Catalina Island, Santa Monica. (34N, 118W)
4 Day Forecast; 3.1 to 2.6 earthquake in the Los Angeles area.

Porterville, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Bakersfield, Fresno, Independence, Isabella, Lone Pine, Maricopa, Mojave, Oildale, Sequoia National Park, Taft, Tehachapi, Tulare, Visalia. (36N, 119W)
4 Day Forecast; 2.7 to 3.0 earthquake in the Porterville area.

Parkfield, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Atascadero, Avenal, Coalinga, Fresno, Madera, Morro Bay, Paso Robles, San Ardo, San Luis Obispo, Taft, Tulare, and Visalia. (36N, 120W)
4 Day Forecast; 4.3 to 4.4 earthquake in the Parkfield area.

Madera, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Coalinga, Lee Vining, Los Banos, Merced, Modesto, Oakdale, Porterville, Sonora, Tulare, Visalia, Yosemite Valley. (37N,120W)
4 Day Forecast; 1.7 to 1.8 earthquake in the Madera area.

Los Banos, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Coalinga, Fremont, Gilroy, Hollister, King City, Livermore, Madera, Merced, Modesto, Monterey, Morgan Hill, Oakdale, Point Sur, Salinas, San Benito, San Jose, San Juan Bautista, Sonora, Stockton, Tracy and Watsonville. (37N, 121W)
4 Day Forecast; 6.2 to 6.8 earthquake in the Los Banos area.

******San Francisco, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Auburn, Berkeley, Clearlake, Concord, Fairfield, Fremont, Healdsburg, Livermore, Lodi, Menlo Park, Morgan Hill, Petraluma, Roseville, Sacramento, San Jose, Santa Rosa, Stockton, Tracy, Vacaville, Vallejo and Woodland. (38N, 122W)
4 Day Forecast; 6.5 to 7.1 earthquake in the San Francisco area. **********

Auburn, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Angels Camp, Chico, Coloma, Grass Valley, Gridley, Lodi, Marysville, Oroville, Placerville, Portola, Quincy, Roseville, Sacramento, San Andreas, Truckee, Vacaville, Woodland, Yuba City. (39N, 121W)
4 Day Forecast; A Very Low Risk of a significant earthquake in the Auburn area.

Lakeport, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Alder Springs, Clearlake, Cloverdale, Fairfield, Fort Bragg, Fort Ross, Healdsburg, Petaluma, Point Arena, Rockport, Santa Rosa, Ukiah, Vallejo, Williams, Willits and Willows. .....(39N, 123W)
4 Day Forecast; 4.8 to 6.7 earthquake in the Lakeport area.

Petrolia, California EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Eureka, Fort Bragg, Hyamporn, Rockport, Ukiah, and Willits.(40N, 124W)
4 Day Forecast; 2.9 to 3.8 earthquake in the Petrolia area.
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Hawaii EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Hilo, Honolulu and Lanai. (20N, 157W)
]4 Day Forecast; 3.0 to 2.2 earthquake in the Hawaii area.
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Las Vegas, Nevada EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Boulder City, Indian Springs, Laughlin, Pahrump, Searchlight. (36N, 115W)
4 Day Forecast; A Very Low Risk of a significant earthquake in the Las Vegas area.
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Memphis, Tennessee EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION. Other cities in this forecast include; Sikeston, Poplur Bluff, Paragould, Blytheville, Jonesboro, Collierville. (36N, 90W)
4 Day Forecast; A 3.3 to 4.3 earthquake in the Memphis area.
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Portland Oregon EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION. cities also included in this forecast are; Aberdeen, Elma, Eugene, Everett, Longview, Monroe, Mount Saint Helens, Olympia, Spokane, Tacoma, Wenatchee and Yakima. (47N, 120W)
4 Day Forecast; 2.5 to 2.0 earthquake in the Portland area.
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Seattle, Washington EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION - cities also included in this forecast are; Aberdeen, Elma, Eugene, Everett, Longview, Monroe, Mount Saint Helens, Olympia, Spokane, Tacoma, Wenatchee and Yakima. (47N, 120W)
4 Day Forecast; 2.5 to 2.0 earthquake in the Seattle area.

I don't think earthquakes can be predicted. They happen when they want to.

As Dr. Charles Richter was fond of saying; only fools and charlatans predict earthquakes. BTW, a big earthquake in the SFO Bay Area might rattle Auburn CA a bit but the town is in the Sierra Foothills some 130+ miles east of SFO.

Steve

*Yawn*

Wonder what Stan Deyo has to say about this?

If this happens I will become a global warming believer, in work hard on promoting it. If it falls with in this period of 4 days.

I've read of many strange things happening around the Bay Area. People are reporting strange animal behaviour, "earthquake clouds", bad headaches, radio interference and a crackling sound lately.

Anyways, some of these predictions come days after the expired time but if its a successful prediction if could come anytime between now and the end of rhe month.

There is no way to predict earthquakes. And at the very least, if you want to attempt one (directed to the guy who makes these predictions), add some scientific reasoning as why.

I don't see any percentages to coincide with your predictions...so I'm assuming the author is "forecasting" that an earthquake WILL occur...

How did he come up with these predictions? Since he has called this an "experiment," I'm assuming he used a scientific method...not just anecdotal reports of "strange occurences" in the Bay Area.

The author needs to give more information about why he is predicting a devastating quake to hit San Francisco within 4 days...his predictions have consequences...let's hope he has something to back them up.

Date - 02/02/2007
Place - Andreanof Islands, Alaska
Magnitude - 4.6 ( Light )
Location - 52.044N , 175.558W
Event ID - us2007yhbn

I don't know how they forecast these... I just find it interesting. There was a successful earthquake prediction in 1975 in China, evacuated a whole city of 250,000.

That was based on a large number of Foreshocks among other things. OTOH they blew the earthquake in 1976 which killed anywhere from 300000 to one million (the Chinese never said) and haven't fared too well in the forecast business since.

Steve

Tangshan was a total disaster tho

The Tangshan earthquake (Chinese: 唐山大地震) of July 28, 1976 is one of the largest earthquakes to hit the modern world, in terms of the loss of life. The epicentre of the earthquake was near Tangshan in Hebei, China, an industrial city with approximately one million inhabitants. The earthquake left 242,419 people dead, according to official figures, though some sources offer much higher estimates. A further 164,581 people were recorded as being severely injured. The earthquake came in a series of events which shook China both literally and figuratively in 1976, which was later labeled a year of curse.

The earthquake hit in the early morning, at 03:42:53.8 local time (1976 July 28 19:42:53.8 UTC), and lasted for around 15 seconds. Many sources list it as 8.2 on the Richter scale, but Chinese Government's official sources state 7.8. It was followed by a major 7.1 magnitude aftershock some 15 hours later, increasing the death toll. It was the first earthquake in recent memory to score a direct hit on a major city.

Wow a 7.1 aftershock! Brutal..

I read the 9.5 Chile earthquake in 1960 had a 7.9 foreshock. The foreshock is probably the main reason there was a rather low death toll for such a large earthquake. The foreshock caused everyone to run out of buildings and into the street. A short time later the big one struck. Most were still outside at the time.

Brent wrote:*Yawn*

You stole my line.

HurricaneBill wrote:I read the 9.5 Chile earthquake in 1960 had a 7.9 foreshock. The foreshock is probably the main reason there was a rather low death toll for such a large earthquake. The foreshock caused everyone to run out of buildings and into the street. A short time later the big one struck. Most were still outside at the time.

that quake is more known for the pacific wide Tsunamis that it triggered

Great Chilean Earthquake or Valdivian Earthquake (Terremoto de Valdivia in Spanish) of 22 May 1960 is the most intense earthquake ever recorded, rating a 9.5 [1] on the Moment magnitude scale. It occurred in the early afternoon (19:11 UTC) and affected southern Chile, Hawaii, Japan, the Philippines, and the Aleutian Islands in Alaska.

The epicenter was 10km west of Niebla, near Valdivia, Chile some 700 kilometers south of Santiago. It caused localized tsunamis that severely battered the Chilean coast, with waves up to 25 meters. The main tsunami raced across the Pacific Ocean and devastated Hilo, Hawaii. Waves as high as 10.7 meters were recorded 10,000 kilometers from the epicenter, and as far away as Japan and the Philippines.

Hilo in HI was hard hit by the tsunami with deaths around 60. The tsunmai killed about 1000 in Asia with the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan being hardest hit. It also caused local tidal surges in CA and some damage in SoCA. I remember seeing home movies showing the turbulent sea in Santa Cruz CA. Four years later the Prince William Sound AK MM9.2 shock hit and that tsunami was particularly rough on the PAC NW and CA coasts-especially Crescent City. Curiously, the long period waves from that shock was felt in the Missile Launch Control capsules around Whiteman AFB MO. The capsules were located underground and mounted on springs designed to absorb the shockwaves from a nuclear blast. The AK shock also caused a seiche in the GOM.

Steve

Crescent City got hit by a tsunami in November 2006. Nothing bad, but there was a bit of damage. A couple of docks were destroyed/damaged.

http://www.usc.edu/dept/tsunamis/california/Kuril_2006/