STORM2K

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2007
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...NORMAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THIS SPRING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA RECEIVED AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL FOR
FEBRUARY...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE BETWEEN 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. MOST OF THE RAINY SEASON OF 2006
AND THE EARLY PART OF THE DRY SEASON OF 2006-2007 WAS ALSO QUITE DRY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS
HELPED TO KEEP RAINFALL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS...AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE DRY SEASON OF 2006-2007 AND FOR THE 14
MONTH PERIOD FROM JANUARY 1, 2006 TO MARCH 8, 2007.

AIRPORTS DRY SEASON : DRY SEASON : 14 MONTH : 14 MONTH TOTALS
2007 DEPARTURES TOTALS DEPARTURES

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 7.41 : -2.66 : 66.84 : 3.74
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 7.58 : -3.68 : 51.48 : -16.76
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 17.13 : 3.30 : 55.75 : -12.72
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 1.82 : -6.37 : 51.14 : -5.43

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE : 5.31 : -3.45 : 45.00 : -14.26
DEVILS GARDEN : 4.60 : -4.19 : 45.64 : -12.83
CLEWISTON : 3.98 : -5.14 : 38.83 : -17.16
BELLE GLADE : 3.86 : -5.21 : 37.86 : -18.11
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 5.48 : -3.83 : 46.86 : -10.22
MIAMI BEACH : 7.57 : -1.65 : 62.02 : 7.37

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED INTO THE 550 TO
650 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR GLADES COUNTY
WHERE IT HAS INCREASED TO 700 TO 750 RANGE. THIS INDICATES AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS IN GLADES COUNTY. WELLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE STILL
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...EXCEPT AROUND AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE
THE WELLS WERE RUNNING AT 10 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...
UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS WERE STILL AT ADEQUATE LEVELS ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

LAKE OKEECHOBEE DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL DURING THE RAINY
SEASON OF 2006 AND THUS FAR DURING THE DRY SEASON OF 2006-2007.
THEREFORE...THE LAKE LEVEL HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 11.1 FEET AS OF THE
END OF FEBRUARY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA UNDER
A WATER RESTRICTION USAGE...WHILE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ARE BEING
ASKED TO CONSERVE WATER.

AS A RESULT...THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAIN IN A DROUGHT CONDITION (D1). THE REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITION STATUS (D0).

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 2007
DRY SEASON IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WHICH TYPICALLY EXTENDS UNTIL LATE
MAY...IS FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FLOOD THREAT FOR THIS SPRING IS ALSO LOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...DUE
TO THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

BAXTER

The persistent southerly and southwest flow over the central and southern Florida peninsula (and surface ridging) has played a role via the dry conditions across south and central Florida. The current drought index is well over 600 for Palm Beach and Broward counties. Water restrictions for the southeast Florida coastal regions are already pending approval. I personally don't expect significant precipitation to permanently dampen the drought conditions through the next several days.

What's amazing to me is how the NWS talks about next weekend like that's whats going to happen. The chances of a cold front passing through next weekend are slim to none but yet he talks like it's a sure deal. The funny thing. He is talking mostly about the GFS.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

I think they are backing off on that now.

Don't we have water restrictions every single spring these days? Memo to city planners and officials...there are way too many people in South Florida, so please quit pouring the concrete, for pity's sake.

The grass is turning yellow again with no relyable rain in sight. The weatherman keeps saying we had a 30% chance of t-storms on friday. I dont belive him, and even if we do get rain it will probably have llightning and more fires with it.

Very dry across Central & South FL.

I hope we get some heavy rains friday!

Perfect fire weather too I might add. I hope you get the rain! I dare say a tropical wave might help (but not too much rain at one time).

Looks like some much needed rain for Florida tonight & Friday . Hopefully no severe weather with this.

NWS Tampa current radar loop:

NWS Tampa

looks like there is moderate lightning in it, but NWS has given us minimum of 3/4", so I hope we get more than that.

that sure looks like a pretty impressive squall line approaching the Tampa bay region..woohoooo....i know how badly u guys need the rain!

not as many oranges and reds in the line as there were before

As of today, water restrictions start here in Broward County. Odd number houses water lawn between 4am - 8am Mon, Wed & Sat. Even houses Sun, Tues & Thursday. Can only wash cars after 5pm on those days.

Its finally raining.

Selected rain totals for some places for March 15, 2007..
Sarasota FL 0.13 inches
St Petersburg FL 0.20 inches
Tampa FL 0.30 inches
Orlando FL 0.36 inches

Not a lot, but at least it was something.

-justin-

DARK, dark skies to the SW. Thunder rumbling?

Could it be????????

Haven't heard thunder in a long time!

EDIT: Rain, thunder, lightning, wind! How wonderful!!!

I got .48" in total.

The drought is worsening especially over Central & South Florida with no real prospects for rain in sight.

The persistent western Atlantic surface ridging in the vicinity east of the Bahamas has contributed to the strong subsidence and low-level east-northeast and easterly flow over the southern half of the Florida peninsula. The persistent upper-level trough and upper-level southwesterly flow (resulting from mid-level forcing) in the southwest Atlantic and lack of moisture with frontal systems has negated precipitation chances and placed the Florida peninsula in a subsidence zone.

When I look at this map it never looks so bad, except for those who live in St. Lucie and Martin counties. But I know anything above 400 is not good and that is most of us south of the panhandle.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?FL,SE