STORM2K

The Day 2 Prob Outlook:



...SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY REGION...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE UPR LOW THAT WILL DIG INTO
THE DESERT SW TODAY AND THEN TURN EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS ON FRI.
UPR LEVELS WILL BECOME QUITE DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET PEELING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A SEPARATE
STREAM ROTATING NEWD AROUND THE LOW. A STRONG SLY LLJ OF 50-60 KTS
ORIENTED FROM CNTRL TX/OK EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO
THE LWR MS VLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS NRN TX AND OK EARLY FRIDAY WHERE THE SLY LLJ IMPINGES
ON THE NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO FRI AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHEN A
SIGNIFICANT AND ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL LIKELY UNFOLD.
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS...SHOULD ADVECT QUICKLY NWD FRI AFTN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
DRYLINE IN CNTRL TX AND TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD TO
ALONG THE RED RVR VLY...SRN AR AND NRN LA. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE SLY LLJ AXIS AND
WELL WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE DURING
THE AFTN. STORMS WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY NWD THROUGH ERN TX AND
ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NERN TX...SWRN AR AND NWRN LA.
AS THEY DO SO...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE
50-60 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. FORECAST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE
EVENING INTO CNTRL/NRN LA AND SCNTRL/SERN AR.

TO THE WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY...PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS WILL EMERGE
ACROSS N TX AND OK DURING THE MID-AFTN HOURS...STRENGTHENING THE
MASS CONVERGENCE FROM SWRN/SCNTRL OK INTO CNTRL TX VCNTY THE SFC
LOW/DRYLINE. AS A RESULT...A SECONDARY AREA OF TSTM INITIATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING WITH
TIME...AND ACTIVITY HERE MAY VERY WELL EVOLVE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
BY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR...HOWEVER...WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN FARTHER E...BUT
ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OVERNIGHT...THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY
PROPAGATE EWD AND MERGE WITH THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM. BACKING OF THE
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
LATER AT NIGHT FROM SRN AR INTO LA AND PERHAPS THE UPR TX COAST WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. BUT...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF
AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA INTO SWRN MS.

Looks like a severe weather outbreak this Friday. I expect some in Houston area. Interesting weather.

Yes, it looks very interesting and potentially dangerous!

The Shreveport area is almost dead center in the Mod Risk..

I wonder if the new convective outlooks in a few hours will upgrade to a High Risk? It seems possible.

For the Memphis/Little Rock areas the mets are saying that the air will likely be too stable to support a lot of severe weather so probably just heavy rain. It depends on where the warm front sets up. But along and south of the front it looks pretty wicked later today.

A very dangerous outbreak today across the South. Eveeryone should pay attention to the weather in those areas.

Friday the 13th tends to be an unlucky day for me (example: I was hit by hurricane Charley on Friday the 13th), so I have a feeling I could be looking at a rough day ahead.

The Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is also in that potentially dangerous outbreak as well.

Now a MDT again for Day 1 with 15H tornadoes, and an erroneous MDT (I thought 45 required hatching on Day 2 for a MDT?) for tomorrow.

I smell an outbreak here...

I think the DFW-Shreveport corridor will be ground zero for this.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1105 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

DISCUSSION:
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TODAY FOR THE MOST PART. WARM FRONT MAY BE A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO DEWPOINT GRIDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED TO COMPENSATE. THINKING IS THAT WARM FRONT WILL NEAR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 21Z. THIS WILL BE TRIGGER
FOR FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
HAILERS BEFORE THEN WITH WET BULB ZERO AROUND 10KB. LOW LEVEL
HELICITY EXTREMELY HIGH ACROSS CWA. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ALONG WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...TORNADOES A HIGH POSSIBILITY. TORNADIC
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT LESSEN UNTIL FINAL ROUND OF STORMS...WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN AREAS.

SCHEDULED BALLOON RELEASE FOR UPPER AIR DATA AROUND 230 PM.

I'd keep a close eye out, that is for sure. This whole storm complex (from the Rockies to the Western Atlantic) could be one for the ages.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC207-131900-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0020.070413T1828Z-070413T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
128 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT
* AT 124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
RULE...OR ABOUT 17 MILES WEST OF HASKELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
RULE BY 140 PM CDT...
ROCHESTER BY 150 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. IF IN
MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3332 9998 3307 9999 3321 9963 3340 9977

Too bad S2K was down yesterday. There was damage in the metroplex. At least one person was killed at a lumberyard from what I heard on TV.

Overall though yesterday was a bust. Still if that one tornado touched down in downtown Dallas...

On question ! Yesterdays prediction failed but is´t OK to warn as early as possible. But from weatherman´s standpoint...why did only hail events occur ?

the storms became outflow dominant earlier than expected and screamed eastward at around 40-45 mph. this prevented any discrete supercells (your traditional tornado producers) from surviving ahead of the impending squall line. the system was moving too fast in my opinion.