STORM2K

Is this normal for this time of year to be so dry?

this is floridas dry season. It is not normal to be THIS dry.

Funny you mention it, here in Miami we actually got a decent rain shower, good 15-20 mins.. first time in weeks...

June is when the wet season begins.

No never it won't rain until June or July.

I'm getting tireed of sneeking out at Midnight to water my dead grass...

feederband wrote:I'm getting tireed of sneeking out at Midnight to water my dead grass...

If its dead don't bother. I walked across my lake this morning, it saved the time of going around it and my feet didn't get wet.

WOW boca!!! How low is okeechobee?

fact789 wrote:WOW boca!!! How low is okeechobee?

No the lake in the middle of my development, not Lake Okeechobee which by the way is at 9.86ft.

feederband wrote:I'm getting tireed of sneeking out at Midnight to water my dead grass...

Home depot is selling a nifty timer that you can attach to your regular hose and a sprikler. It has 4 zones.

I heard Lake Monroe dropped 2 ft and boats are getting stuck on sand bars in the middle of the lake! Some of you beleive Mother Nature will balance this out, but it's hard to beleive that when this is the worst drought we've seen in years!

I want to ask a quick question. This is hard to put together but here goes: Is the Florida drought just like any other drought we have had, but the fact that makes this one feel so much worse is because Lake Okeechobee is so much below normal? In other words, if more rain had fallen over the Lake, but the other drought conditions across Florida would remain the same, would we today be talking about how seriously dangerous this current drought is? The reason I am asking this is because we have had droughts before. I can think of 2004 when it was so dry but the difference between this year and 2004 was that lake Okeechobee water levels were much higher in 2004 compared to this year. Can anybody help explain this to me?

<RICKY>

No April showers to bring May flowers. Lushine's theory on dry SFL May's = hurricanes will have to be watched.

In 2006 I had 36" total rain for my yard.
A third of 2007 has passed and so far I'm up to 5" total rain in my yard.

feederband wrote:I'm getting tireed of sneeking out at Midnight to water my dead grass...

there are plenty of hours in the week to water and remain in compliance so you dont have to sneak around, lol

Blown_away wrote:No April showers to bring May flowers. Lushine's theory on dry SFL May's = hurricanes will have to be watched.

Many years that featured hurricane strikes on the southern Florida peninsula did not feature exceptionally dry Mays (see 1947 and 1964). Many analogs proposed by Jim Lushine did not feature an exceptional lack of precipitation during the month of May. Lushine's views are likely flawed. During most early pre-season months, a low-level surface ridge is present in the southwest Atlantic. The ridging extends westward to Florida, and drier conditions in the lower levels of the atmosphere cap (reduce or limit) convective activity over the peninsula.

While the ridging may reduce thunderstorm activity, low-level cumulus frequently moves onshore and provides scattered precipitation. This ridging is found in the lower levels and would not steer deep-layered tropical systems (strong tropical storms and hurricanes) into Florida. It is a common misconception that any high pressure anomalies (relative to mean sea-level pressures) would steer tropical cyclones westward.

In a short notice, the dry May theory is highly inconclusive. Ultimately, the synoptics in place when a tropical cyclone is active plays the most important roles in steering.

jlauderdal wrote:

feederband wrote:I'm getting tireed of sneeking out at Midnight to water my dead grass...

there are plenty of hours in the week to water and remain in compliance so you dont have to sneak around, lol

Nope...We can only water on Thursday from 8pm to 6 am...

MiamiensisWx wrote:

Blown_away wrote:No April showers to bring May flowers. Lushine's theory on dry SFL May's = hurricanes will have to be watched.

Many years that featured hurricane strikes on the southern Florida peninsula did not feature exceptionally dry Mays (see 1947 and 1964). Many analogs proposed by Jim Lushine did not feature an exceptional lack of precipitation during the month of May. Lushine's views are likely flawed. During most early pre-season months, a low-level surface ridge is present in the southwest Atlantic. The ridging extends westward to Florida, and drier conditions in the lower levels of the atmosphere cap (reduce or limit) convective activity over the peninsula.

While the ridging may reduce thunderstorm activity, low-level cumulus frequently moves onshore and provides scattered precipitation. This ridging is found in the lower levels and would not steer deep-layered tropical systems (strong tropical storms and hurricanes) into Florida. It is a common misconception that any high pressure anomalies (relative to mean sea-level pressures) would steer tropical cyclones westward.

I don't think he was saying you can forecast a hurricane season for SFL based on May rainfall #'s, however there is a consistent relationship between dry Mays and hurricanes for SFL. I think his point was the pressure patterns observed during May often persist into the hurricane season. If May is as dry as April has been, SFL hurricane odds go up IMO. As far as an extreme lack of precipitation in a SFL May, I think 1992 was one of the driest May's on record.

Blown_away wrote:I don't think he was saying you can forecast a hurricane season for SFL based on May rainfall #'s, however there is a consistent relationship between dry Mays and hurricanes for SFL. I think his point was the pressure patterns observed during May often persist into the hurricane season. If May is as dry as April has been, SFL hurricane odds go up IMO. As far as an extreme lack of precipitation in a SFL May, I think 1992 was one of the driest May's on record.

Actually patterns are consistently fluctuating. A +AO in May (lower 500 mbar pressure over Greenland and higher heights in western Atlantic) can change to a regime with tropospheric troughiness along the East Coast. While 1992 featured a dry May, many other "dry" Mays mentioned by Lushine featured precipitation closer to average across south Florida. For example May of 2004 featured monthly precipitation over two inches at many south Florida locations (including 2.45 at Miami and 2.89 at West Palm Beach). These values are only slightly below climatological averages for May. In addition, May of 1926 (and other Mays that preceeded south Florida hurricanes) was near average in south Florida. The region was devastated by a Category 4 hurricane in September.

In addition, patterns always change. A weak tropospheric trough dominated the Southeast in portions of 2004 (including August). This trough weakened the 500 mbar longwave ridge, and this alteration of the flow allowed Charley to move northward into southwest Florida. Timing of the troughs, ridges, and other factors is the key.

Here are some years that featured south Florida hurricane strikes. Many years that experienced south Florida hurricanes featured near average (or above normal) May precipitation at most local stations. These years are a small fraction of the total data sampling. Many other years featured wet Mays and hurricane strikes.

1926 - Cat. 2 (Brevard County), Cat. 4 (Miami-Dade/Broward); May of 1926 featured precipitation near normal
1941 - Cat. 1/2 (Miami-Dade County); May of 1941 featured precipitation near normal
1947 - Cat. 4 (Broward/Palm Beach), Cat. 1 (Monroe County); May of 1947 featured precipitation above normal
1948 - Cat. 3 (Monroe County), Cat. 2 (Monroe Keys/Miami-Dade); May of 1948 featured precipitation above normal
1949 - Cat. 3 (Palm Beach County); May of 1949 featured precipitation above normal
1950 - Cat. 3 (Miami-Dade/Broward); May of 1950 featured precipitation above normal
1960 - Cat. 4 (Monroe Keys/Collier/Lee); May of 1960 featured precipitation near normal
1999 - Cat. 1 (Monroe County); May of 1999 featured precipitation above normal

Rainfall data for Florida stations is available on this site.

Florida (and the Southeast) is not safer following wet Mays.

Noah wrote:Is this normal for this time of year to be so dry?

Yeah...were you here last year? The whole state was burning up...we went three months without any appreciable rainfall.

This will all change by the end of May...we'll have thunderstorms almost every day through October.