STORM2K

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 050850
KSZ000-NEZ000-051645-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

A STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...FEEDING VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND NEBRASKA.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS REGION.
THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING...ALLOWING STRONG
HEATING TO OCCUR ALONG DRYLINE FROM WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS AXIS...TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH STRONG AND VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE A RISK OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING
HAIL...AS WELL AS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HART.. 05/05/2007

$$
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

Busy day yesterday looking at the warnings..to looks active as well..

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

Current watches about to expire but it looks like new boxes will be issued with the radars looking pretty active this morning.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

Latest Today's outlook..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Yes, now it has been upgraded to a HIGH risk, repeating a "HIGH" risk:

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL NEB...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
SD...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL KS...AND NORTHWEST OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES FROM ND TO TX...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL
NEB...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY...AS 80-90 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEB BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND INTO EXTREME
WESTERN OK. POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SOMEWHAT
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...12Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
ENVIRONMENT IS EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND ONLY WEAKLY
CAPPED. COMBINATION OF WEAK HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
REMOVE CAP AND ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT RELATIVELY
EARLY TODAY.

...CENTRAL NEB/KS...
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE FROM WESTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY
MAY BE ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REPEAT INITIATION AS
STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. COMBINATION OF
EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
/EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2/ ALSO FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED...STRONG TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/KS OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...OK/TX...
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE ALONG SURFACE
DRYLINE AFTER DARK FROM WESTERN OK INTO WEST TX. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...WHERE HIGH
CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN
OK/NORTHWEST TX THIS EVENING.

...NEB/SD...
FARTHER NORTH...SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
NEB AND SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM SECTOR
AIR MASS MAY NOT DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES. ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY OVER THIS REGION.

..HART/GRAMS.. 05/05/2007

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Y'all be careful up there!!

Could be even worse than last night!!!

New watch (probably PDS) coming soon:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS INTO SW...S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 051352Z - 051445Z

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES
LIKELY BY MIDDAY.

12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY INDICATES POTENTIALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SURFACE
CYCLONE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG...
AND THIS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A MID-LEVEL
CAP IS PRESENT...BUT GENERALLY WEAK AND IT MAY NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE
INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH MID/UPPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. DRY LINE NEAR/WEST OF GARDEN
CITY INTO THE GOODLAND AREA MAY PROVIDE ONE FOCUS...WITH REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANOTHER...SOUTHWEST OF CONCORDIA INTO DRY LINE
INTERSECTION NEAR MCCOOK NEB. GIVEN LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BENEATH 50-70 KT
CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH MID DAY.

..KERR.. 05/05/2007


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...

39120144 39870124 40500129 41010082 40519988 40139895
40149767 39309733 38509780 38049824 37199850 36739987
36770119 37300132 38020130 38770140

I will definitely being watching this to my west. Tomorrow is our day for severe weather.

Kristi

geez, i hope everyone stays safe out there in Nebraska and Kansas today.

Yea...I have a very close friend (who just happens to be a girl *cough* ) and she lives out in Pawnee County, Kansas (couple counties NE of Dodge City)...needless to say, I've been watching these storms and praying...hoping most of it missing her again today, but it's looking worse than last night...

I keep hearing that a watch is going to be in effect over western KS very soon.

I hope that your friend is safe.

Those poor people in the Midwest. Another extreme powerhouse event today. Just seeing the damage of Greensburg. Very sad. Thank God they had 20 minutes to get to safe place. It saved hundreds of lives.

WOW Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM for northern KS and Nebraska. It is a PDS Watch. I've never seen a Tornado Watch issued for anywhere outside of a landfalling tropical system issued for that long EVER.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING ALONG E OF DRY
LINE...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WRN
KS INTO SWRN NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LONG TRACK/VIOLENT TORNADOS. AS DRY LINE REMAINS WRN KS THRU
THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY OFF THE DRY LINE THRU THE EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

geez!!!!!!!!!!!! 90 MPH winds and 4 inch hail? I have NEVER seen that before

Expect t-storm initiation along the area of greatest moisture convergence by 18Z ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/mcon.gif ). Helicities are larger ahead of this area ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/srh3.gif ), and the dominate mode should be discrete supercells. Unfortunately, this is in the same area (maybe just slightly further E) of the tornados that occurred yesterday.

some of the areas hit last night are under the gun again.

This is what happened last night.

Another PDS Tornado watch:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PART OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGE
CITY KANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 232...WW 233...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG DRY
LINE FROM SWRN KS SWD THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR
AND MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG E OF DRY LINE...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL INCLUDE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE VIOLENT/LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HALES

first warning of the day

Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
NEC041-051815-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0032.070505T1724Z-070505T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ARNOLD...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 19 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CALLAWAY...OR ABOUT 22 MILES SOUTH OF ARNOLD...MOVING
NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ARNOLD BY 1240 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4108 10021 4107 9980 4171 9974 4170 10023

$$

HIRSCH