Florida Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16981 Postby NDG » Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:51 am

gatorcane wrote:Well here we go again with the 12Z Euro at 192 hours bringing a freeze down into the peninsula. The GFS isn’t nearly this cold but the CMC has a similar idea as the Euro. The NAO looks to stay positive so maybe the Euro is overdoing things:

https://i.postimg.cc/8c6kY16t/ecmwf-T2m-seus-57.png


Yep, this time the GFS wins. It has been back and forth between the two models.
Enjoy the next cold front, Spring is coming early with warm temps coming back with vengeance.
2 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#16982 Postby psyclone » Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:42 pm

One last blast of cold and then a great warm up...we will be basking in glorious warmth by midweek...considering the calendar..it will be spring.
2 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16983 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Feb 15, 2022 11:09 am

I know it's technically still early, but...........I'm calling it. With that last brief cooldown, winter is over. For much of Florida, anyway. Models showing very little as well as positive NAO, looks like our old friend the SW Atlantic ridge is going to dominate, with only short lived mild cooldowns every week or so. Welcome to Spring 2022, I think.
2 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#16984 Postby psyclone » Wed Feb 16, 2022 12:48 am

We're going to range from somewhat above normal to full scale torch for awhile. Strong east wind will favor torching on the western side of the peninsula with some mid 80's expected...we're going to push some record highs..it's going to feel really nice after that cool stretch
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 974
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16985 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:02 pm

We'll have the torch this week, but it looks like it will be passed back to Old Man Winter next week as GFS MEX temps are showing 43 in Tampa on the morning of Tuesday March 1.
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16986 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:39 pm

The NWS Miami did mention a possible shortwave pushing the front through next week. Hopefully it materializes because once it hits 90 there is no turning back. 8-)
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6306
Age: 59
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16987 Postby boca » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:16 pm

No more cooldown for next week winter is done.The models are backing off and with no surprise with a semi permanent positive NAO.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16988 Postby NDG » Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:23 pm

boca wrote:No more cooldown for next week winter is done.The models are backing off and with no surprise with a semi permanent positive NAO.


Not just the +NAO, the MJO is moving into phase 4,5 & 6 through the next 14-21 days as I type this, winter is over for FL.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#16989 Postby psyclone » Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:27 pm

torch will end and be replaced by a nice refreshing cooldown with temps moderating soon thereafter. really nice weather overall. March/April offer our best weather imo..
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16990 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:26 pm

Still some fronts but no real cold air push. PNA still positive for now, but NAO also pretty strongly positive, so makes sense. I think my prediction will hold.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#16991 Postby psyclone » Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:26 pm

SE ridge is back with a vengeance longer term. We'll be lucky to snag near normal days let alone meaningful chill. Persistent warmth is likely here to stay. might have some fire issues this spring as we're drying out fast
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6306
Age: 59
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16992 Postby boca » Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:28 pm

The last time the NAO was negative was mid December wow.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: Florida Weather

#16993 Postby psyclone » Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:19 pm

Massive heat ridge building in the southeast. Torch warning after a few days of milder weather. We're going to lose our shelf water chill and resultant free air conditioning earlier than usual at this rate around here. Still with decadent warmth and endless sun...it's a great pattern
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16994 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:34 am

It's so funny, about 2 weeks ago, the long range models were actually showing decent cold for this minor March 1 frontal passage. Now, the frontal passage is essentially just taking us back to normal for a couple days.

When it comes to the peninsula, it's almost always easier to trust the long range models when they show warmth, less so when they show cold 2 weeks out!

Looks like some serious warm air coming March 8. Upper 80s and low 90s on west coast, well into the 90s in interior Cuba and the Yucatan.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 974
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16995 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:23 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16996 Postby NDG » Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:27 pm

-PNA & +NAO means models coming to reality little by little, backing away from their forecasts of lows in the 30s across central FL next Sunday morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 974
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: Florida Weather

#16997 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:17 pm

Summertime thunderstorms in March today!
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Florida Weather

#16998 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:26 pm

I'm going to be in Orlando, Florida in Early May, what's the usual weather patterns down there?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: Florida Weather

#16999 Postby Cat5James » Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I'm going to be in Orlando, Florida in Early May, what's the usual weather patterns down there?

Hot and Humid
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Florida Weather

#17000 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:16 pm

Cat5James wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I'm going to be in Orlando, Florida in Early May, what's the usual weather patterns down there?

Hot and Humid

That's why I'm planning to bring a LOT of Water Bottles down there! :lol:

There can be storms in Central Florida in Early May, but not as much compared to the rainy season is density, but intensity is anyone's guess.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 49 guests