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Abdullah
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Re: Florida Weather

#17181 Postby Abdullah » Sat Dec 24, 2022 7:47 am

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Re: Florida Weather

#17182 Postby Abdullah » Sat Dec 24, 2022 8:14 am

Abdullah wrote:National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 4:30 PM EST

44°F 41°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
42°F 42°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
45°F 46°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
45°F 47°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
46°F 46°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
45°F 46°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
47°F 47°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
49°F 48°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
48°F 46°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
49°F 48°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead


Comparisons added, the real numbers are in red to the right of the predictions

Looks like it was about 1 degree colder than expected throughout Broward while in Miami-Dade either the predictions were spot on or it was 1 degree warmer than expected. Naples was 3 degrees warmer than expected.




National Weather Service Official Forecasted Highs today across South Florida as of 6:00 AM EST

54°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
57°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
58°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
60°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
58°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
59°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
60°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
59°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
59°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
60°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead
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Re: Florida Weather

#17183 Postby psyclone » Sat Dec 24, 2022 10:09 am

Looks like low temps were pretty close to expectations locally except the cold zones which stayed a bit warmer (Brooksville stopped at 27 vs a forecast of 23). 32 at Tampa and 34 at st pete Clearwater is a cold night. Tonight should end up a degree or 2 warmer so we should emerge from this event unscathed but it will be interesting to see if there's any ornamental impacts locally. My best guess is no but we are close to the line.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17184 Postby NDG » Sat Dec 24, 2022 10:21 am

Officially down to 30F for a low at all three airports in Orlando, my neighborhood on the outskirts of the city down to 29F with a good 6.5 hrs below freezing.

We may get lucky tonight of just getting away with a light freeze only as cloud cover is still expected to move in during the night. South FL should be fine with no freeze tonight as well.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17185 Postby NDG » Sat Dec 24, 2022 10:40 am

gatorcane wrote:Looks like Tampa, Clearwater, and Orlando officially hit the freezing mark. In fact Clearwater has been at freezing since 5:55. Will be interesting to see the damage to the tropicals across Central Florida from this event. I know growth zones have been pushed in the past decade across Central Florida for trees and plants which typically only thrive in South Florida. It is not just the fact the temps are at or below freezing but the duration of the cold and the extremely low dew points which can create problems.


My experience here in my part of town here in Orlando which is usually a good couple of degrees colder the light freezes like this morning's only do cosmetic damage to tropical plants once they are fully grown & mature.
Mongo trees, fox tail palms, royal palms and even fully grown coconut trees have been fine ever since the last true deep freeze in 2010 which killed a lot of young tropical vegetation.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17186 Postby NDG » Sat Dec 24, 2022 10:50 am

I have been in discussion with some pro Mets that still are in denial that we live in a warming world (for whatever the cause might be of it happening), they were calling for 1983, which is a fairly good analog event, temps for the Deep South, after this proved to be nothing close to 1983s and even more nothing like 1989's Arctic Blasts they argued that it was because the trough did not dug as far south. But looking back at 1983 the trough barely dug down compare to this event.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17187 Postby chaser1 » Sat Dec 24, 2022 11:44 am

NDG wrote:I have been in discussion with some pro Mets that still are in denial that we live in a warming world (for whatever the cause might be of it happening), they were calling for 1983, which is a fairly good analog event, temps for the Deep South, after this proved to be nothing close to 1983s and even more nothing like 1989's Arctic Blasts they argued that it was because the trough did not dug as far south. But looking back at 1983 the trough barely dug down compare to this event.
https://i.imgur.com/BtbmUU5.gif
https://i.imgur.com/ftM49vW.gif


Fantastic look back and comparison; thanks for that! Interestingly, the lower values of 500mb flow really were not lower back then as I would have thought. The one thing that does stand out to me however, is the gradient and directional flow for that past event verses the current. 1983 appeared to have a much tighter gradient along with a more WNW flow into North and Central Florida. This event verified to have a flow that was primarily more Westerly in it's orientation with flow cutting across the GOM.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17188 Postby gatorcane » Sat Dec 24, 2022 12:40 pm

37F with a wind chill of 28F at 12:35 at Clearwater Airpark. Unreal how cold it is. :eek:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... 6c46S9OmhA

3-day history:
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCLW.html
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Re: Florida Weather

#17189 Postby Abdullah » Sat Dec 24, 2022 2:34 pm

Huge bust is occurring for high temperatures

KOPF Opa Locka and KHWO Pembroke Pines are looking like they both peaked at 52°F whereas they were expecting 60°F.

Temperatures now falling again and we're below 50°F at KHWO once more.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17190 Postby psyclone » Sat Dec 24, 2022 2:42 pm

Clearwater airpark's obs are a joke that no one takes seriously. Always reading cold. The NWS shouldn't have those obs but they do. It didn't freeze in pinellas but (KPIE) did get to 34. It's getting more and more difficult to freeze in pinellas and even the 19 corridor in pasco as the urban heat island relentlessly expands. Certainly possible...it's just a higher jump...which is fine with me.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17191 Postby psyclone » Sat Dec 24, 2022 3:49 pm

Major torch returns by year end as the CPC outlooks are maxed out warm in the lakes (hang in there Buffalo) and show a torch for the eastern US that's going to stick around for a long time. It is possible we just experienced our coldest night of the Winter.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17192 Postby Abdullah » Sat Dec 24, 2022 5:36 pm

Abdullah wrote:National Weather Service Official Forecasted Highs today across South Florida as of 6:00 AM EST

48°F 54°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
52°F 57°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
51°F 58°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
53°F 60°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
53°F 58°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
52°F 59°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
52°F 60°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
54°F 59°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
54°F 59°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
55°F 60°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead


Comparisons added, the real numbers are in red to the right of the predictions

Massive forecast bust across the board, made only six / seven hours before the highs happened and were off considerably, with actual temperatures being 4°F to 7°F lower than expected throughout South Florida. One of the coldest Christmas Eves ever to strike the region.




National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 3:00 PM EST

39°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
41°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
44°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
44°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
44°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
43°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
44°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
45°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
42°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
44°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead[/quote]
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Re: Florida Weather

#17193 Postby gatorcane » Sat Dec 24, 2022 5:56 pm

Wonder why northern Pinellas is not in a freeze warning? NWS is again showing a low hitting freezing for locales across north county such as Palm Harbor. Almost always north county is a few degrees colder than points further south in the county due to not having as much water surrounding it and maybe because a bit less of the “urban heat effect” as south county is denser.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... 6eDJi9OmhA
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Re: Florida Weather

#17194 Postby psyclone » Sat Dec 24, 2022 7:02 pm

Ruskin wants a couple hours at freezing for a warning and that won't happen over a broad enough basis the justify a warning. The nws doesn't break up
pinellas for freeze headlines...although they should as north county is its own world. Everyone in north county should be protecting their plants for sure. The cold is impressive..
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Re: Florida Weather

#17195 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 24, 2022 9:21 pm

psyclone wrote:Clearwater airpark's obs are a joke that no one takes seriously. Always reading cold. The NWS shouldn't have those obs but they do. It didn't freeze in pinellas but (KPIE) did get to 34. It's getting more and more difficult to freeze in pinellas and even the 19 corridor in pasco as the urban heat island relentlessly expands. Certainly possible...it's just a higher jump...which is fine with me.


This is particularly true with rational freeze events, but advective freezes can have a pretty equal playing field. Galveston is usually about 10 degrees warmer than I am, but not in this case. In the wind yesterday afternoon - I was at 33° and my buddy's place on the island was at 32°. The wind was just insane.

Our 'snowageddon' freeze in 2021 was similar. It was so windy that the there wasn't much different between up here in Montgomery County and the island down south.

With the UHI effect being so much more pronounced now - on calm, radiational cooling nights, you get used to the heat shield that it provides. Then, when you get a killing, advective freeze (after years of lucking-out), it kinda shocks your system that Mother Nature is still a powerful force.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17196 Postby Abdullah » Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:45 am

The temperatures on weather stations in South Florida are still dropping...
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Re: Florida Weather

#17197 Postby NDG » Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:56 am

chaser1 wrote:
NDG wrote:I have been in discussion with some pro Mets that still are in denial that we live in a warming world (for whatever the cause might be of it happening), they were calling for 1983, which is a fairly good analog event, temps for the Deep South, after this proved to be nothing close to 1983s and even more nothing like 1989's Arctic Blasts they argued that it was because the trough did not dug as far south. But looking back at 1983 the trough barely dug down compare to this event.
https://i.imgur.com/BtbmUU5.gif
https://i.imgur.com/ftM49vW.gif


Fantastic look back and comparison; thanks for that! Interestingly, the lower values of 500mb flow really were not lower back then as I would have thought. The one thing that does stand out to me however, is the gradient and directional flow for that past event verses the current. 1983 appeared to have a much tighter gradient along with a more WNW flow into North and Central Florida. This event verified to have a flow that was primarily more Westerly in it's orientation with flow cutting across the GOM.


Yes, perhaps a more NW flow over FL compared to this event but is just not here in FL, is over fairly much over the entire eastern US that the 1983 & 1989 Christmas' records still stand.

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Re: Florida Weather

#17198 Postby NDG » Sun Dec 25, 2022 10:57 am

Abdullah wrote:The temperatures on weather stations in South Florida are still dropping...


Wet bulbing effect from the falling precipitation.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17199 Postby LarryWx » Sun Dec 25, 2022 12:05 pm

Per Melbourne NWS Twitter 10:41 AM: "The National Weather Service in Melbourne can confirm that sleet, also known as ice pellets, has occurred near the Rockledge, Viera, and Merritt Island areas in Brevard County."

Also from MLB NWS:

ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2022

A SMALL BAND OF PRECIPITATION FORMED OVER EASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
AND PUSHED ACROSS CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY AND OFFSHORE LATE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET, FROM VIERA TO MERRITT ISLAND, COCOA BEACH
AND CAPE CANAVERAL. MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH RAPID
MELTING.

Here's a link to video evidence of wintry precip:

https://twitter.com/realTimB/status/160 ... _&ref_url=

In addition, Immokalee a little before this reported "MIX PCPN" at 10 AM!

IMMOKALEE MIX PCPN 39 27

How often does it rain with it as cold as 41 in West Palm Beach at noon?!?

W PALM BEACH LGT RAIN 41 32 70 NW13
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Dec 25, 2022 12:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17200 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Sun Dec 25, 2022 12:12 pm

Still only 44 degrees here in fort lauderdale.
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