Florida Weather

[psyclone]

The chances of a more significant cold blast amid a longer duration of below normal temps appears to be increasing. This is a high risk time of year for freezes so something to monitor

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1602722847323045893

[gatorcane]

Here comes the cold on the long-range GEFS, straight from the Arctic. That is quite a signal!

[Abdullah]

ECMWF High-Res model 12Z today:

Christmas Eve morning 2022



Mid 40s in the Miami metro and St. Petersburg
Mid 30s in the Orlando metro and Hillsborough County
High 20s in the Jacksonville metro

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS long-range with arctic air invading the Continental US and Florida. Has the freeze line south of Lake O and 29F down into Fort Myers and 34F for Miami Christmas night

Let’s see what it shows inside 168 hours though as we know the drill:

[SFLcane]

[MetroMike]

:froze:

https://i.postimg.cc/XJ3LMkdT/29-B8-FF71-3-A5-C-4431-9587-C0-CA59-AA333-D.png

Reptiles falling from tree warnings may be needed.

[Abdullah]

Global Forecasting System (GFS) projected lows on the morning of December 24, 2022 by model run:

Miami International Airport

12/14 12Z: 69°F
12/15 00Z: 53°F
12/15 12Z: 46°F

Tampa International Airport

12/14 12Z: 63°F
12/15 00Z: 39°F
12/15 12Z: 38°F

Orlando International Airport

12/14 12Z: 59°F
12/15 00Z: 36°F
12/15 12Z: 34°F

Jacksonville International Airport

12/14 12Z: 42°F
12/15 00Z: 28°F
12/15 12Z: 28°F

---

Global Forecasting System (GFS) projected lows on the morning of December 25, 2022 by model run:

Miami International Airport

12/14 12Z: 56°F
12/15 00Z: 56°F
12/15 12Z: 54°F

Tampa International Airport

12/14 12Z: 44°F
12/15 00Z: 44°F
12/15 12Z: 44°F

Orlando International Airport

12/14 12Z: 39°F
12/15 00Z: 44°F
12/15 12Z: 43°F

Jacksonville International Airport

12/14 12Z: 29°F
12/15 00Z: 33°F
12/15 12Z: 35°F

---

Today's 12Z GFS forecast for lows on the morning of Christmas Eve:

[NDG]

I usually don't take models' forecasted lows for FL past their 5 day range literally. Yes, I am sure they will be cold but they are most times way cold biased.
The Euro was forecasting widespread upper 30s and low 40s for the FL Peninsula this weekend, the cold biased Canadian even colder, now a good 10 degrees warmer.

[gatorcane]

Euro and GFS lows for Christmas Eve. If this happens would be the coldest Christmas in years. The Euro is notably 4-5 degrees colder than the GFS.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS a few degrees colder for this freeze event. Coldest temps on the 25th instead of 24th though 24th looks cold. Could be two nights of freezing temps:



Here is the GEM which does have a cold bias but it is well below freezing deep into the peninsula:

[Abdullah]

What the date of cold temperatures really depends on is how fast the system moves

Oddly that doesn't seem to be having an effect on how strong it is

[Abdullah]

By this evening or next morning we should have our official National Weather Service forecast for temperatures on Friday night (Saturday early AM hours, Christmas Eve morning). Even on the Friday official forecast we can see how they already are talking about the cold front's effects starting to be felt in the afternoon.

---

Current Official National Weather Service Forecasts for Friday (December 23)

Coastal Miami-Dade, Metro Miami-Dade, Coastal Broward:

Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Temperature falling into the upper 60s in the afternoon.

Inland Miami-Dade, Metro Broward, Metro Palm Beach:

Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Temperature falling into the mid 60s in the afternoon.

Inland Palm Beach:

Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 60s in the afternoon.

Hendry:

Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Temperature falling to around 60 in the afternoon.

---

Essentially the cold will already start moving in Friday afternoon, meaning the plunge that will happen Saturday morning already will be more intense.
Many weather models say that during Saturday afternoon the temperature will also be very subdued, meaning that Saturday night will also similarly be very cold.

[gatorcane]

NWS Tampa puts out its first forecast for the potential freeze event and has a low of 37 for Friday night with a high of 53.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... 54xHi9OmhA

Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.

[Abdullah]

First forecasts for Friday night (Christmas Eve morning) for South Florida released:

46°F - KAPF - Naples - Naples Municipal Airport
46°F - KPBI - West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport
49°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport
50°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport
48°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach - Pompano Beach Airpark
48°F - KHWO - Pembroke Pines - North Perry Airport
49°F - KOPF - Opa Locka - Opa Locka Airport
49°F - KMIA - Miami - Miami International Airport
47°F - KTMB - West Kendall - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport
50°F - KHST - Homestead - Homestead Air Reserve Base

[gatorcane]

Some humor from NWS Tampa:

“Wednesday will be mostly dry, by Thursday an arctic airmass will
drop down to Florida, ushering in much cooler temperatures in its
wake. Exactly how cold will it get? It is still a little too
early to tell, but some of our region could drop below freezing.
Unfortunately, no precipitation is in the forecast after the front
moves through, so dreams of a white Christmas in Florida, will
just stay dreams“

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... hlight=off

[FlaWeatherDude]

A hard freeze is becoming more likely for Central Florida and could rival Christmas 1983. That year we dipped well down into the 20's Xmas morning! If not at least we will be dealing with Freezing temperatures Christmas weekend!

[FlaWeatherDude]

Some humor from NWS Tampa:

“Wednesday will be mostly dry, by Thursday an arctic airmass will
drop down to Florida, ushering in much cooler temperatures in its
wake. Exactly how cold will it get? It is still a little too
early to tell, but some of our region could drop below freezing.
Unfortunately, no precipitation is in the forecast after the front
moves through, so dreams of a white Christmas in Florida, will
just stay dreams“

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... hlight=off

December 25th, 1983 also was a cold dry snowless Xmas unlike 89 were a hard freeze came with snow flurries.

[MetroMike]

Most of the local mets and NWS discussions describe it as cool weather ahead. I'm sorry but in my book that is COLD weather as a decades long Florida resident.

[chaser1]

Big cold for sure however GFS is still holding back a bit on any sort of crazy low temps. Curiously, it's the EURO that remains consistently colder then GFS. Then of course there's the Canadian which I wont even discuss LOL