Florida Weather

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gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather

#17161 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:58 pm

Icon with a freeze down to just north of Lake O. Widespread 20s across the I-4 corridor. Basically only South Florida escapes the freeze as well as the immediate coastlines of Central Florida. Looks somewhat reminiscent of those notorious freezes of the 80s and 90s.

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Re: Florida Weather

#17162 Postby LarryWx » Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:40 pm

I'm still looking out for the possibility though still only small of wintry precip ~12/26-7 in FL, especially north, due to a combination of this historically strong Arctic high preceding that period, the cold being slow to modify, and above average uncertainties related to it being a highly anomalous setup along with a pretty complex pattern. There are two packets of energy that the models are harping on that would be in play for FL then and these are still way out in the relatively data poor Pacific. Each model run is still changing a good bit from run to run, especially at 500 mb, reflecting on the higher than average uncertainty.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17163 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:23 pm

Looks like there will be a decent snowpack for this event:

Image
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Re: Florida Weather

#17164 Postby psyclone » Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:42 pm

This is going to be a miserable period of wind driven cold with 3 mega cold nights. Having said that, the ICON depiction posted above is way overcooked. I don't think this will measure up to the freezes of the 80 and 90's. Not even close. But a light freeze over 2 or 3 nights is likely. The strawberry farmers in plant city will need to crank the sprinklers for 3 nights. The good news is that this cold gets the boot rather quickly. New Year's Eve partiers in Florida are likely to be enjoying warmth
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Re: Florida Weather

#17165 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:52 pm

Along and north of i-4 equals Four Corners/Disney/Davenport/Kissimmee northwards!

From NWS Melbourne...

Friday Night-Sunday...Very cold and very dry Arctic air arrives,
bringing the potential for at least two nights of freezing
temperatures to most of east central Florida, with the exception of
the Treasure Coast counties and the Brevard barrier islands, who are
expected to hold just above freezing. Deterministic models and
blends remain in good agreement, though GFS MOS has been an outlier,
calling for temperatures around 5 degrees cooler than the rest of
the guidance. Ultimately, very little change to overnight
temperatures in this forecast, with only a couple locations
adjusting perhaps a degree cooler due to GFS MOS. Lows Friday night
into Saturday morning drop into the mid to upper 20s along and north
of I-4, the low 30s through the interior to Okeechobee and the Space
Coast, the mid 30s through the inland Treasure Coast counties, and
the mid to upper 30s along the Treasure Coast. Temperatures Saturday
night into Sunday morning are almost a copy-paste, just a few
degrees cooler in the southern counties, and freezing or near
freezing temperatures lasting a little longer, especially in the
northern counties. Afternoon temperatures remain chilly, only
managing to peak in the mid 40s north of I-4, upper 40s to around 50
through the rest of the interior, and low to mid 50s along the Space
and Treasure Coasts Saturday and Sunday. Very dry conditions, with
clear skies Saturday then cloudy skies Sunday.
Last edited by FlaWeatherDude on Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17166 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:01 pm

Dewpoints should also bottom out to anywhere around 0.

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Re: Florida Weather

#17167 Postby chaser1 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:12 pm

LarryWx wrote:I'm still looking out for the possibility though still only small of wintry precip ~12/26-7 in FL, especially north, due to a combination of this historically strong Arctic high preceding that period, the cold being slow to modify, and above average uncertainties related to it being a highly anomalous setup along with a pretty complex pattern. There are two packets of energy that the models are harping on that would be in play for FL then and these are still way out in the relatively data poor Pacific. Each model run is still changing a good bit from run to run, especially at 500 mb, reflecting on the higher than average uncertainty.


Well Larry, I for one would find a little Florida dusting rather cool. Unfortunately, I'm just not seeing it happen at this point.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17168 Postby psyclone » Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:26 pm

Tomorrow will be interesting as the winds crank and temps tank. Good excuse to hibernate for about 100 hours or so
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Re: Florida Weather

#17169 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:40 pm

Gonna feel alot like xmas :cold:
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Re: Florida Weather

#17170 Postby LarryWx » Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:51 pm

chaser1 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:I'm still looking out for the possibility though still only small of wintry precip ~12/26-7 in FL, especially north, due to a combination of this historically strong Arctic high preceding that period, the cold being slow to modify, and above average uncertainties related to it being a highly anomalous setup along with a pretty complex pattern. There are two packets of energy that the models are harping on that would be in play for FL then and these are still way out in the relatively data poor Pacific. Each model run is still changing a good bit from run to run, especially at 500 mb, reflecting on the higher than average uncertainty.


Well Larry, I for one would find a little Florida dusting rather cool. Unfortunately, I'm just not seeing it happen at this point.


Based on today's model runs, I agree as I'd say the already small chance is even lower although I won't call it near zero just yet, especially with the intense cold still not having arrived. The disturbances that I've been watching that will follow the cold's arrival by a few days are still well out in the Pacific, where data is more sparse. So, maybe still a 10% chance of something wintry somewhere in N FL?
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Re: Florida Weather

#17171 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Fri Dec 23, 2022 12:37 am

The WPC forecasts Orlando to be 27 Xmas morning.

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Re: Florida Weather

#17172 Postby NDG » Fri Dec 23, 2022 6:51 am



That’s not Orlando, that’s Daytona Beach.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17173 Postby NDG » Fri Dec 23, 2022 6:58 am

gatorcane wrote:Looks like there will be a decent snowpack for this event:

https://i.postimg.cc/28npF4c3/gfs-asnow-us-16.png


Not really when compared to previous historic Arctic blasts when the snow cover is well down in the Deep South much closer to FL if not over north FL like in 1989.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17174 Postby Abdullah » Fri Dec 23, 2022 7:34 am

Woke up this morning with a harsh clear red sky to my east and thunderclouds to the west

All the forecasts dropped a lot, down to 40 degrees F
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Re: Florida Weather

#17175 Postby NDG » Fri Dec 23, 2022 8:59 am

NDG wrote:As usually the case the models' raw numbers have trended warmer as we get closer in time but MOS guidance continue to go down in most places. I still think forecasted lows for at least south FL are too cold because of the high cloud cover forecasted to move in.

Latest MOS forecasted lows for Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings.

Tallahassee: 18F, 17F, 19F
Jacksonville Int'l: 21F, 20F, 27F
Orlando Int'l: 28F, 33F, 39F
Tampa Int'l: 31F, 35F, 39F
Naples: 41F, 42F, 47F
West Palm: 41F, 37F, 45F
Miami: 46F, 43F, 52F


Last night's MOS guidance for lows over the next three mornings, still calling for just a light freeze for most of central FL. I think that forecasted lows by the MOS guidance for at least south FL Sunday morning are too cold as high cloud cover is still forecasted to move in the morning unless the lows are much earlier in the night before the cloud cover moves in.
The same cloud cover on Sunday will keep the FL Peninsula very cold during the day on Christmas with highs only in the 40s and 50s. Euro even showing precip for south FL, showing highs only in the mid 40s in central FL and near 50 in south FL on Christmas Day. Miami could be within its record Low Max for highs dating back to 1983.

Tallassee: 18F, 20F, 22F
Jax Int'l: 17F, 19F, 25F
Orlando Int'l: 31F, 30F, 35F
Tampa Int'l: 33F, 29F, 36F
Naples: 42F, 39F, 41F
West Palm: 42F, 39F, 47F
Miami: 52F, 43F, 50F
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Re: Florida Weather

#17176 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:20 pm

Currently 37 degrees and falling in Panama City, Florida. Wind has been 20-30 out of the north most of the day but is calming down now.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17177 Postby psyclone » Fri Dec 23, 2022 6:07 pm

I've got a 31 tonight and 32 tomorrow night from the nws. Bring back the torch. Should be close to 80 in a week.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17178 Postby Abdullah » Fri Dec 23, 2022 6:39 pm

National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 4:30 PM EST

41°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
42°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
46°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
47°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
46°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
46°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
47°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
48°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
46°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
48°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead
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Re: Florida Weather

#17179 Postby Abdullah » Sat Dec 24, 2022 12:17 am

Tracking in South Florida

Current temperatures as of 12:00 AM are:

56°F in Pembroke Pines
57°F in Opa Locka
59°F in Miami

This is 3°F to 5°F below the 00Z GFS forecast issued four hours ago for what temperatures were expected to be at this time.

Latest Euro model hasnt released but the 12Z from yesterday is overshooting the actual temperatures as well by a smaller margin of 1°F to 2°F.
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Re: Florida Weather

#17180 Postby gatorcane » Sat Dec 24, 2022 7:35 am

Looks like Tampa, Clearwater, and Orlando officially hit the freezing mark. In fact Clearwater has been at freezing since 5:55. Will be interesting to see the damage to the tropicals across Central Florida from this event. I know growth zones have been pushed in the past decade across Central Florida for trees and plants which typically only thrive in South Florida. It is not just the fact the temps are at or below freezing but the duration of the cold and the extremely low dew points which can create problems.
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