STORM2K

Can I use the term winter cancel even though it didn’t really have it yet.

Will need to keep an eye on the couple of weeks for some possible significant cold surges into Florida as the NAO looks like it make take a significant nose-dive albeit still TBD just how negative it might go if it even does. The global models (namely the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC) are starting to suggest a potential long-wave pattern of deep troughiness over eastern North America with multiple shortwave reinforcing the pattern coinciding with the peak time for cold outbreaks into Florida.

We're definitely getting some winter the next couple of weeks. Temps averaging well below normal at what is the coldest time of the year. Hopefully we avoid a freeze threat but we're definitely entering a sketchy timeframe.

Looks to me like the I-75 corridor from Ocala to Lake City, may be at greatest risk for tree damage or downed lines as a result of the tightest surface gradient around or just after daybreak today.

Definitely a colder pattern for FL over the next couple of weeks but as always I don't take any forecasted temps past 5 days literally.
For FL to get that cold the NAO and AO will have to go into record negative territory which the ensembles don't show, only slightly negative if not near neutral.
In the meantime upper 30s for my area Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with a good chance for frosty roofs.

Quite an intense squall line marching east over the peninsula with tornado watches and even a tornado warning for areas of NW Palm Beach County at this time. Tornado watch for all of SE Florida it looks like. This front means business.

And just like that as I thought the Euro drops the freezing temps it was forecasting for central FL in its 7-10 day range.

Yup, GFS now not showing quite the icebox it had been, either. Jan 30-Feb 1 still looks chilly, but nothing we can't handle. Before, it had taken the freezing line all the way down to past I-4 lol

GFS also spitting out Gulf lows crossing Florida like a gumball machine.

So far we're just getting cool temps without a big blast of cold...similar to the pattern we had in November. Pretty nice pattern in a very nice winter so far.

Amazing how we did not see any frost at all in the Orlando area Tuesday & Wednesday mornings. Our tropical plants in my area including flowering mango trees have lucked out so far.

Looking at the increasing GFS drum-roll for end of month forecast, and frozen precip comes to mind. GFS doesn't depict any form of frozen precip for Fla but that advective pattern along with low low mid level heights are rather interesting. If not for the potential brisk winds, hard freeze conditions would not seem that unrealistic. I'd be plenty happy with upper 30 lows and just keep it at that. Let's see if Jan. 28 - Feb 2 turns out as cold as the pattern suggests this far out.

chaser1 wrote:Looking at the increasing GFS drum-roll for end of month forecast, and frozen precip comes to mind. GFS doesn't depict any form of frozen precip for Fla but that advective pattern along with low low mid level heights are rather interesting. If not for the potential brisk winds, hard freeze conditions would not seem that unrealistic. I'd be plenty happy with upper 30 lows and just keep it at that. Let's see if Jan. 28 - Feb 2 turns out as cold as the pattern suggests this far out.

Here is an animation of that very cold 06Z GFS run from 156 to 198 hours:

Ouch, here's to hoping THAT depth of cold doesn't verify! The 06Z run would suggest the potential for hard freeze & frost conditions for inland sections of North, Central, and South Florida as far south as Lake 'O, and freezing temps with possible frost as far south as Homestead. Nothing record-breaking about the latter but it sure seems like it's been years since that kind of cold overtook the peninsula.

Meanwhile, the new 12Z continues to show the same overall pattern however nuances to the location of the surface high result in the freezing line to remain across N. Florida around the I-10 corridor instead. At this 7-day range though the safest bet would be to assume the end result will fall somewhere in the middle, yet still proving to be the coldest conditions that Florida will have seen for a couple of years

A freeze threat may very well evolve in about a week or so. I am definitely watching.

Definitely next weekend is going to be another chilly one with the potential for parts of central FL hitting the freezing mark.
But the Euro which is usually very aggressive is not showing such low temps as the GFS was showing yesterday.

What is crazy is that both the latest 06z & 0z Euro runs show Miami & Ft Lauderdale getting down to 40 and even some upper 30s in the outskirts for tomorrow morning while the GFS shows only near 50.

Here in central tonight we might be saved from getting too low from forecasted mid & high level clouds moving in after midnight.

The pattern changes next month back to the 80s as the PNA is forecasted to go back negative.

Yeah the 12Z Euro run has lows to 40F down into Homestead with widespread upper 30s over Alligator Alley. The NNW wind vector will be in the perfect direction to bring cold air deep down into the peninsula.

Temps only around 50 most the day today. The weather, like the Bucs...has gone cold. The 8-14 day outlook has turned above normal for the first time since this chilly stretch commenced so.. .after groundhog day things should be looking up

I am spending the winter on the eastern side of Lake Okeechobee until April. Been here since the last few days of November. Today was a pretty cold and crispy day for Florida. High only around 60. Got down to like 34-36 in some spots. Also, that's a pretty nasty cold front showing up for the weekend. Forecast high of only 51 for Okeechobee, FL on Saturday!

12Z Euro with widespread low to mid 30s down into Central Florida for portions of Orlando and Tampa and even extending south of the I-4 corridor for this Saturday night which might end up the coldest night of the season so far and possibly the coldest night we will see this winter.

Even showing mid to upper 30s for metro SE Florida with a low of 37 for Miami

Euro and GFS have flipped, the Euro is now the most aggressive with its 0z run even colder with lows in the mid to upper 20s along the I-4 corridor, low to mid 30s across SE FL! I hope is wrong!
The Euro shows even colder temps for SW Florida on Monday morning, insane!