STORM2K

NDG wrote:

Abdullah wrote:Damn, we got HRRR over here predicting full-on low and mid 30s for Sunday morning across the Miami metro! The airport looks to be around 35!

https://i.imgur.com/UAKZmJB.png

I HRRRd that they were the most accurate model for close range, but what do you all think?

No, HRRR is usually a little cold biased past its 12-18 range forecast, its latest 126z run is already starting to trend warmer towards the Euro raw & GFS MOS guidance which do the best.

Thank you for the insight!

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ECMWF Forecasts in selected places across South Florida over the past few days

Miami Airport

Saturday High
57°F - 1/27 12Z
59°F - 1/28 00Z
58°F - 1/28 12Z
58°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday Morning Low
36°F - 1/27 12Z
37°F - 1/28 00Z
37°F - 1/28 12Z
37°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday High
56°F - 1/27 12Z
57°F - 1/28 00Z
59°F - 1/28 12Z
59°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday Morning Low
40°F - 1/27 12Z
40°F - 1/28 00Z
43°F - 1/28 12Z
42°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday High
66°F - 1/27 12Z
66°F - 1/28 00Z
67°F - 1/28 12Z
67°F - 1/29 00Z

Fort Lauderdale Airport

Saturday High
56°F - 1/27 12Z
58°F - 1/28 00Z
57°F - 1/28 12Z
57°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday Morning Low
36°F - 1/27 12Z
36°F - 1/28 00Z
36°F - 1/28 12Z
37°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday High
55°F - 1/27 12Z
57°F - 1/28 00Z
59°F - 1/28 12Z
58°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday Morning Low
40°F - 1/27 12Z
40°F - 1/28 00Z
42°F - 1/28 12Z
41°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday High
66°F - 1/27 12Z
66°F - 1/28 00Z
68°F - 1/28 12Z
67°F - 1/29 00Z

Weston - Interior Broward

Saturday High
57°F - 1/27 12Z
58°F - 1/28 00Z
58°F - 1/28 12Z
58°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday Morning Low
37°F - 1/27 12Z
37°F - 1/28 00Z
38°F - 1/28 12Z
38°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday High
56°F - 1/27 12Z
57°F - 1/28 00Z
59°F - 1/28 12Z
60°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday Morning Low
41°F - 1/27 12Z
41°F - 1/28 00Z
43°F - 1/28 12Z
42°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday High
66°F - 1/27 12Z
66°F - 1/28 00Z
68°F - 1/28 12Z
68°F - 1/29 00Z

Northern Coconut Creek - Northern Broward

Saturday High
54°F - 1/27 12Z
56°F - 1/28 00Z
55°F - 1/28 12Z
56°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday Morning Low
35°F - 1/27 12Z
36°F - 1/28 00Z
36°F - 1/28 12Z
37°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday High
55°F - 1/27 12Z
57°F - 1/28 00Z
58°F - 1/28 12Z
58°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday Morning Low
39°F - 1/27 12Z
40°F - 1/28 00Z
42°F - 1/28 12Z
41°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday High
65°F - 1/27 12Z
66°F - 1/28 00Z
68°F - 1/28 12Z
67°F - 1/29 00Z

Boynton Beach - Southern Palm Beach County

Saturday High
53°F - 1/27 12Z
55°F - 1/28 00Z
54°F - 1/28 12Z
54°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday Morning Low
36°F - 1/27 12Z
37°F - 1/28 00Z
37°F - 1/28 12Z
38°F - 1/29 00Z

Sunday High
54°F - 1/27 12Z
55°F - 1/28 00Z
57°F - 1/28 12Z
57°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday Morning Low
41°F - 1/27 12Z
43°F - 1/28 00Z
44°F - 1/28 12Z
44°F - 1/29 00Z

Monday High
64°F - 1/27 12Z
65°F - 1/28 00Z
68°F - 1/28 12Z
65°F - 1/29 00Z

Ruskin just stepped everyone up notch...the previous freeze warning areas are up to a hard freeze warning and the areas previously exempt are now under a freeze warning. Brace for impact. The only region not under a freeze warning in the Tampa bay CWA is coastal Lee.

The high must be coming in a tad faster allowing for winds to go slack toward dawn...allowing for colder lows. It's like we start with an advection freeze and end with a radiation freeze...the worst of all worlds that spreads the misery far and wide.

Here's the latest 12z GFS MOS guidance for lows tomorrow morning, some crazy lower numbers for SW Florida. I see why the NWS Ruskin office extended the freeze warnings. I guess a lot of cold air draining will be going down I-75 from the inland areas of the Nature Coast during the night. Spots that will dip way down into the 20s will be because of radiational cooling taking over as winds die down before sunrise.
But a lot of time MOS guidance is a bit too aggressive in years past in some areas, especially in rural areas. I will be comparing these to actual morning lows tomorrow morning.

21 Jax Airport
19 Ocala Airport
26 Daytona Beach airport
38 Cocoa Beach AF Base
26 Melbourne Airport
28 Sanford Airport
30 Orlando Airport
25 Lakeland Airport
30 Tampa Airport
33 Clearwater/St Pete Airport
40 Downtown St Pete Airport
30 Sarasota Airport
30 Venice Airport
26 Punta Gorda/Charlotte Airport
27 Ft Myers Airport
30 Naples Airport
34 W Palm Beach Airport
38 Miami Airport.

My updated nws forecast is 30. if we freeze it will be the first time since 2018...with very similar temps. Lots of backyard banana plantations are gonna go mush if the forecast is realized.

Been watching HRRR, the forecasted low tomorrow morning's definitely increased somewhat over the past hours, but remains low.
In fact, the numbers seemed to start trending downwards again after the 12Z update in the Southeastern part of the state.

The latest forecast (22Z) shows Broward as a near-monolithic blanket of 34°F - 35°F, and Miami International Airport manages 35°F as well!
Meanwhile Central Miami's at 37°F. This is only 14 hours after initialization, so it should get much more accurate than the low 30s we saw yesterday.

Looks like even Lee County won’t get off the hook for a Freeze warning. Not often do you see one for Fort Myers especially coastal locations. NWS Tampa update:

The only update to the forecast was to include coastal Lee County
in the Freeze Warning. Winds should become due north and this will
likely push some of the below freezing temperatures to coastal
areas of the county, especially northern locations

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... hlight=off

NDG wrote:Here's the latest 12z GFS MOS guidance for lows tomorrow morning, some crazy lower numbers for SW Florida. I see why the NWS Ruskin office extended the freeze warnings. I guess a lot of cold air draining will be going down I-75 from the inland areas of the Nature Coast during the night. Spots that will dip way down into the 20s will be because of radiational cooling taking over as winds die down before sunrise.
But a lot of time MOS guidance is a bit too aggressive in years past in some areas, especially in rural areas. I will be comparing these to actual morning lows tomorrow morning.

21 Jax Airport 21F 12 hrs subfreezing
19 Ocala Airport 21F 11 hrs subfreezing
26 Daytona Beach airport 30F 2-3 hrs at freezing
38 Cocoa Beach AF Base 39F
26 Melbourne Airport 30F 1-2 hrs at freezing
28 Sanford Airport Orlando 30F 2-3 hrs at freezing
30 Orlando Airport 34F
25 Lakeland Airport 30F 6-7 hrs at freezing
30 Tampa Airport 36F
33 Clearwater/St Pete Airport 41F
40 Downtown St Pete Airport 43F
30 Sarasota Airport 34F
30 Venice Airport 36F
26 Punta Gorda/Charlotte Airport 30F 2-3 hrs freezing
27 Ft Myers Airport 36F
30 Naples Airport 37F
34 W Palm Beach Airport 37F
38 Miami Airport. 42F

Above in red are what appears to be the Official actual low temps for this morning.
All in all a big bust for forecasted lows for areas very close to the coast and central urban areas where the winds stayed up longer.

NDG wrote:

NDG wrote:Here's the latest 12z GFS MOS guidance for lows tomorrow morning, some crazy lower numbers for SW Florida. I see why the NWS Ruskin office extended the freeze warnings. I guess a lot of cold air draining will be going down I-75 from the inland areas of the Nature Coast during the night. Spots that will dip way down into the 20s will be because of radiational cooling taking over as winds die down before sunrise.
But a lot of time MOS guidance is a bit too aggressive in years past in some areas, especially in rural areas. I will be comparing these to actual morning lows tomorrow morning.

21 Jax Airport 21F 12 hrs subfreezing
19 Ocala Airport 21F 11 hrs subfreezing
26 Daytona Beach airport 30F 2-3 hrs at freezing
38 Cocoa Beach AF Base 39F
26 Melbourne Airport 30F 1-2 hrs at freezing
28 Sanford Airport Orlando 30F 2-3 hrs at freezing
30 Orlando Airport 34F
25 Lakeland Airport 30F 6-7 hrs at freezing
30 Tampa Airport 36F
33 Clearwater/St Pete Airport 41F
40 Downtown St Pete Airport 43F
30 Sarasota Airport 34F
30 Venice Airport 36F
26 Punta Gorda/Charlotte Airport 30F 2-3 hrs freezing
27 Ft Myers Airport 36F
30 Naples Airport 37F
34 W Palm Beach Airport 37F
38 Miami Airport. 42F

Above in red are what appears to be the Official actual low temps for this morning.
All in all a big bust for forecasted lows for areas very close to the coast and central urban areas where the winds stayed up longer.

Agree MOS guidance was too cold. But the Euro and GFS seemed a lot closer to reality. They were not showing freezing temps to the coast to begin with looking at yeterday’s runs.

The weather stem site closest to me (safety harbor fire station) fell to 30. It sure felt frigid. Local pockets can certainly get colder, especially when the wind dies down. I like to survey vegetation a couple days later for freeze evidence. I did see the immokalee station showing 27 earlier. Interior southwest Florida can get very cold under the right set up. Hopefully the ag interests down there are ok. Certainly a close call at the very least.

gatorcane wrote:

NDG wrote:

NDG wrote:Here's the latest 12z GFS MOS guidance for lows tomorrow morning, some crazy lower numbers for SW Florida. I see why the NWS Ruskin office extended the freeze warnings. I guess a lot of cold air draining will be going down I-75 from the inland areas of the Nature Coast during the night. Spots that will dip way down into the 20s will be because of radiational cooling taking over as winds die down before sunrise.
But a lot of time MOS guidance is a bit too aggressive in years past in some areas, especially in rural areas. I will be comparing these to actual morning lows tomorrow morning.

21 Jax Airport 21F 12 hrs subfreezing
19 Ocala Airport 21F 11 hrs subfreezing
26 Daytona Beach airport 30F 2-3 hrs at freezing
38 Cocoa Beach AF Base 39F
26 Melbourne Airport 30F 1-2 hrs at freezing
28 Sanford Airport Orlando 30F 2-3 hrs at freezing
30 Orlando Airport 34F
25 Lakeland Airport 30F 6-7 hrs at freezing
30 Tampa Airport 36F
33 Clearwater/St Pete Airport 41F
40 Downtown St Pete Airport 43F
30 Sarasota Airport 34F
30 Venice Airport 36F
26 Punta Gorda/Charlotte Airport 30F 2-3 hrs freezing
27 Ft Myers Airport 36F
30 Naples Airport 37F
34 W Palm Beach Airport 37F
38 Miami Airport. 42F

Above in red are what appears to be the Official actual low temps for this morning.
All in all a big bust for forecasted lows for areas very close to the coast and central urban areas where the winds stayed up longer.

Agree MOS guidance was too cold. But the Euro and GFS seemed a lot closer to reality. They were not showing freezing temps to the coast to begin with looking at yeterday’s runs.

GFS raw numbers were actually too warm in most spots, the Euro HD forecasted temps were a little closer to reality. The MOS is usually the best when the potential is there for good radiational cooling to take over like it did in sheltered rural areas.

Massive gradient across Broward County, with 28 degrees near the reservation.



The experts said that the higher than expected temperatures is because the upper atmosphere heated up way more than expected.

Abdullah wrote:Massive gradient across Broward County, with 28 degrees near the reservation.

https://i.imgur.com/mutrb2q.jpg

The experts said that the higher than expected temperatures is because the upper atmosphere heated up way more than expected.

Hasn’t this been a typical issue with many cold snaps over the past few decades? Climate change may be responsible for warmer UA temperatures.

we had a minor freeze here with the outer leaves of bananas in open areas zapped along with tender weeds in open areas. the bananas will be ok and there's no other evidence of other significant damage but it was sure cold...and the first freeze locally since 2018. As the bay region continues to rapidly develop, we're increasingly moated off by an ever expanding UHI, making freezes less common. prior freeze climo was several per year... now we routinely go years with no freezes or only a very minor one. we can still freeze and are certainly vulnerable to a massive cold event like texas had last year, but the bar for freezes is certainly higher and that trend is likely to continue with development north and east of here.

psyclone wrote:we had a minor freeze here with the outer leaves of bananas in open areas zapped along with tender weeds in open areas. the bananas will be ok and there's no other evidence of other significant damage but it was sure cold...and the first freeze locally since 2018. As the bay region continues to rapidly develop, we're increasingly moated off by an ever expanding UHI, making freezes less common. prior freeze climo was several per year... now we routinely go years with no freezes or only a very minor one. we can still freeze and are certainly vulnerable to a massive cold event like texas had last year, but the bar for freezes is certainly higher and that trend is likely to continue with development north and east of here.

So true! Many years ago I would have dismissed the concept that broadening urban areas could really alter a significant weather events' temperatures, rainfall, etc. for such a relative small area such as a city. However, over the years I saw the temperature extremes really moderate from the largely rural farmlands of W. Kendall to the sprawling urban center of traffic and residential & commercial construction that largely replaced it. Such has clearly happened for a growing area of suburbs well removed from the actual city of Orlando, to an increasingly larger footprint of area in this part of Central Florida. Here's an interesting link to a National Geographic article that explains it in a pretty basic & understandable manner - https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... YAtBNULEnW

Despite a favorable very cold pattern for FL because of the +PNA and very cold Arctic Air over the US during the month of January with many pointing to January of 1985 as an analog, most of central and southern FL ended up the month dead on average for the month, with a few spots a degree below average and a few spots a degree above average. FL is becoming more and more tropical every year, IMO.

With above average temps forecasted to return this month our meteorological winter will once again be above average over all.

Did y’all see there were 30’s reported in Cuba, with Havana getting down to 39? It was colder down in Cuba than the Florida Keys.

jasons2k wrote:Did y’all see there were 30’s reported in Cuba, with Havana getting down to 39? It was colder down in Cuba than the Florida Keys.

Yes, not unusual but it does not happen very often that it gets in the 30s in the western part of Cuba in the inland sections away from the water, which is the reason why it does not get as cold in Key West because is a very small island surrounded by water.
It got down to 37F in a town called Bainoa, just east of Havana. 38F at the Int'l Airport of Havana.

Well here we go again with the 12Z Euro at 192 hours bringing a freeze down into the peninsula. The GFS isn’t nearly this cold but the CMC has a similar idea as the Euro. The NAO looks to stay positive so maybe the Euro is overdoing things:

What a dismal stretch of weather we're stuck in yet again. rain with a max in the 50's tomorrow here. dreadful. we've had quite a few chilly days with wall to wall clouds. pretty unusual and definitely a buzzkill after a summer like december. legit spring can't arrive soon enough.