STORM2K

While the GFS model cane isn't likely what is likely is plume of moisture sufficient to kick the rain season early this year.

Finally, some rain for northwest Florida. Mainly looking for it for my yard.

http://tropicwatch.info/radar.html

Boy did rainy season start with a bang here with that low-level trough which moved through. Copious amounts of rainfall here today with training of cells over SE Palm Beach county and eastern Broward. Some pretty intense lightning as well. Looks like some African dust moves in later tonight and into tomorrow.

I didn't get didley. They all petered out as they got to the coastline near my house.

Marine Warning
Beginning: 2022-05-22T13:42:00
Ending: 2022-05-22T15:45:00
New Alert
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO MEXICO BEACH OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO MEXICO BEACH FROM 20 TO
60 NM...* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT.
* AT 842 AM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 NM EAST OF
OKALOOSA DEEP WATER REEF TO 33 NM SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY BEACH TO 22
NM WEST OF EMPIRE MICA WRECK, MOVING NORTH AT 45 KNOTS.
HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS, WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, AND SMALL HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...WATERSPOUTS CAN QUICKLY FORM AND CAPSIZE BOATS...DAMAGE
VESSELS...AND CREATE SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES. MAKE SURE ALL
ON BOARD ARE IN A SECURE LOCATION AND WEARING LIFE
JACKETS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34
KNOTS...SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAKE SURE ALL ON BOARD ARE WEARING LIFE
JACKETS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANAMA CITY BEACH, LAGUNA BEACH, SANTA ROSA BEACH, MEXICO BEACH,
SANDESTIN AND MIRAMAR BEACH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR UNTIL HAZARDOUS WEATHER PASSES.
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN
EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE, KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS

The much-advertised weekend rain event was a hit for some, but a bust for others - especially those in Pinellas and the immediate Tampa Bay area.

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1528751151738458113

It was a bust for me too. Although I wouldn't be surprised if we see another spin up in the gulf like 90L with the tail of the current front coming.

Speaking of bust. Anytime you want have pool party. Make sure the NWS has 70-80% chance rain. Perfect day here in Plantation.

Rainy season has been in action.

With all of the rain Florida has been getting the past few days, I must say how highly disappointed I am that my little corner of southwest St Pete has been hot and dry. I see this every year and just feel frustrated. We actually have to run sprinklers to keep our grass and plants alive. Of course, I understand the mechanics of this. I'm one of those that now wishes for a little low pressure to whip up something to give us a break. I'll be watching the Global Models thread for any little hope.

High pressure is my not friend.

Panama City is in the same boat. Rain all around us the past week but it says no, we can rain in downtown Panama City.

stpeteweathergal wrote:With all of the rain Florida has been getting the past few days, I must say how highly disappointed I am that my little corner of southwest St Pete has been hot and dry. I see this every year and just feel frustrated. We actually have to run sprinklers to keep our grass and plants alive. Of course, I understand the mechanics of this. I'm one of those that now wishes for a little low pressure to whip up something to give us a break. I'll be watching the Global Models thread for any little hope.

High pressure is my not friend.

It still busts more often than not in my neighborhood of Miami. Outside of a couple days last week with nice soaking rain, I've been mostly high and dry while neighborhoods to the north and south (mostly south Miami-Dade in this case) get nailed. I don't know how or why, but I'm often in the ripoff zone for afternoon thunderstorms. My guess is that it has something to do with the particular shape of the coastline and how that impacts the trajectory of the local seabreeze.

Patrick99 wrote:It still busts more often than not in my neighborhood of Miami. Outside of a couple days last week with nice soaking rain, I've been mostly high and dry while neighborhoods to the north and south (mostly south Miami-Dade in this case) get nailed. I don't know how or why, but I'm often in the ripoff zone for afternoon thunderstorms. My guess is that it has something to do with the particular shape of the coastline and how that impacts the trajectory of the local seabreeze.

I have also thought our area is in an odd location with seabreezes influenced by Gulf and Bay.

As it so happened, we did get "spittle" for 10 minutes today. My description of spittle is very few drops that evaporate as soon as it hits the ground. Just makes it steamier afterwards.

Temp has been in the mid 90s with feel like in the 100s+. Truly disgusting.

SAL sucks. This time of year just feels like a green house. All the moisture just choked out by dust. We go from one extreme to the next, and we'll probably go back to another extreme next week.

Back door front and brisk dry NE winds across South Florida like something you would see in late fall through spring but warmer. Certainly odd weather considering we are heading into late June.

Outside of the first week or so in June which did overproduce with the no-named storm, not much rain to speak of for my locale in coastal SE Palm Beach County at least, very lackluster rainy season so far for June which is the peak month. Like last weekend, another case where the rain chances seem way too high for coastal metro SE Florida. All of the storms are inland or pinned to SW Florida in the Naples / Fort Myers area. Without a mean steering flow from the west or WSW, tough to get rain on the east coast here or seems.

It looks like this persistent southeast wind pattern is finally going to break down in about a week or a bit more as a trough looks to erode the stubborn ridge. Here in coastal Boca Raton, it is so dry lawns are literally fried unless they have received water through a sprinkler system or some other means. Same looks to be true down into at least northern coastal Broward as well.

Meanwhile each and every day for the past several weeks it seems Southwest Florida including Naples and Fort Myers has been getting hammered.

12Z Euro 500MB heights 120-192 hrs showing ridge finally getting squashed:

gatorcane wrote:It looks like this persistent southeast wind pattern is finally going to break down in about a week or a bit more as a trough looks to erode the stubborn ridge. Here in coastal Boca Raton, it is so dry lawns are literally fried unless they have received water through a sprinkler system or some other means. Same looks to be true down into at least northern coastal Broward as well.

Meanwhile each and every day for the past several weeks it seems Southwest Florida including Naples and Fort Myers has been getting hammered.

12Z Euro 500MB heights 120-192 hrs showing ridge finally getting squashed:

https://i.postimg.cc/4Nptc1p3/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-us-fh120-192.gif

The only rain we received was from the disturbance from early June and since that it’s been a tinderbox here.Zero rain and that tropical wave is a bust as well.

boca wrote:

gatorcane wrote:It looks like this persistent southeast wind pattern is finally going to break down in about a week or a bit more as a trough looks to erode the stubborn ridge. Here in coastal Boca Raton, it is so dry lawns are literally fried unless they have received water through a sprinkler system or some other means. Same looks to be true down into at least northern coastal Broward as well.

Meanwhile each and every day for the past several weeks it seems Southwest Florida including Naples and Fort Myers has been getting hammered.

12Z Euro 500MB heights 120-192 hrs showing ridge finally getting squashed:

https://i.postimg.cc/4Nptc1p3/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-us-fh120-192.gif

The only rain we received was from the disturbance from early June and since that it’s been a tinderbox here.Zero rain and that tropical wave is a bust as well.

Yeah. The weather on the East coast has sucked. Only real rain I've received was from that disturbance in early June, too. The tropical wave yesterday and today looked good on the MIMIC loop, but somehow has produced zero rain for me.

Seems like yet another "rainy season" with persistent low level strong easterly flow that pushes anything that does fire up away, with almost no chance for outflow boundary interaction, and pins the deeper moisture to the south. I truly do not recall summers like these as a kid, yet this seems to be normal now. I do remember rain being more of a frequent, almost daily thing. If we didn't get a storm in the afternoon, we often got a brief storm in the AM. Plenty of days we got both. Going several weeks in June into July with no rain would have been unheard of, yet it happens all the time now.