STORM2K

Still can't buy a storm in Miami, despite a decent moisture profile today. At least Ft. Lauderdale is getting a little this afternoon.

The no rainy season summer continues across most eastern South Florida metro locals by the coast. At my locale, we probably have received about a half inch of rain at most in the last 5 weeks. Combined with hot, sunny days (as the anvils from storms over the interior get sheared off to the west and not east) makes the days quite miserable until the sun goes down.

This is the driest rainy season here in SE Florida I’ve ever seen. Usually we get periods of a westerly flow from time to time but not this year. It’s been miserable and I hope the pattern changes soon which I’m really thinking it won’t change. The only saying grace will be a tropical system like what happened in early June.

Let’s see we may have a shot at some decent rains from this TUTT moving in from the Bahamas tomorrow and into the weekend. While the low-level steering flow will still be out of the southeast as it has been for the most part for the last 5+ weeks or so, the TUTT should allow some storms to develop over the east coast and/or move in from the Atlantic. The heaviest rainfall still favors the southwest coast of Florida.

The last summer which reminded me of this one was 2017 with very dominant east to southeast winds over the summer. That year we did get some significant impacts from Irma and we noted some anomalously strong ridging that year over the Western Atlantic.

Looking like we might have another low-pressure trough hanging out over the northern Gulf of Mexico the next couple of days.

gatorcane wrote:Let’s see we may have a shot at some decent rains from this TUTT moving in from the Bahamas tomorrow and into the weekend. While the low-level steering flow will still be out of the southeast as it has been for the most part for the last 5+ weeks or so, the TUTT should allow some storms to develop over the east coast and/or move in from the Atlantic. The heaviest rainfall still favors the southwest coast of Florida.

The last summer which reminded me of this one was 2017 with very dominant east to southeast winds over the summer. That year we did get some significant impacts from Irma and we noted some anomalously strong ridging that year over the Western Atlantic.

Rainfall performance was pretty poor from that TUTT, at least in my area. Couldn't have been more than 1.00" all weekend. There was one halfway decent squall Saturday evening, and apparently I slept through a brief storm very early Saturday AM. That was about the extent of it.

Looks like a weak tropical wave will be moving into South Florida from the Central Bahamas late tonight and into tomorrow. This wave should give the southeast coast of Florida some much needed rainfall. It continues to be exceptionally dry around my locale in coastal SE Palm Beach county. We have had a shower here and there but just light rain enough to wet the pavement and nothing significant.

Finally, a little storminess in Miami this morning. And it is extremely muggy out. This is more like the kind of old school SE FL weather I remember.

Patrick99 wrote:Finally, a little storminess in Miami this morning. And it is extremely muggy out. This is more like the kind of old school SE FL weather I remember.

I think we are having the driest summer ever.The wind hasn’t been SW or West the last two months which is crazy.

Cashing in on rain big time on the coast here in Boca Raton it is very squally with some gusty winds which is typical of a tropical wave moving through. About time!

boca wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:Finally, a little storminess in Miami this morning. And it is extremely muggy out. This is more like the kind of old school SE FL weather I remember.

I think we are having the driest summer ever.The wind hasn’t been SW or West the last two months which is crazy.

Aside from a couple days where the rainfall has been bunched up, it has been a ridiculously dry July. And just like that, we have another 3 or 4 days of dust and sun...yay.

Before I moved back north to Delaware for the summer, there was constant easterly flow and I remember watching the storms out west with nothing in FLL. It appears that this problem has continued over the past 2 months. Hopefully this changes by the time I go back down in mid-august.

Been hotter than average summer so far with high temps usually getting into the mid 90s. Usually get some rainfall towards or during the evening time and drops the temps 20 degrees which is nice but humidity has been bad like always. That's Florida. Always hotter than average it seems.

TheHurricaneGod wrote:Before I moved back north to Delaware for the summer, there was constant easterly flow and I remember watching the storms out west with nothing in FLL. It appears that this problem has continued over the past 2 months. Hopefully this changes by the time I go back down in mid-august.

That flow is still there, and still nothing for MIA or FLL in terms of moisture since that big drenching a few weeks back. Odd shower here and there but it's brutally dry.

Nuno wrote:

TheHurricaneGod wrote:Before I moved back north to Delaware for the summer, there was constant easterly flow and I remember watching the storms out west with nothing in FLL. It appears that this problem has continued over the past 2 months. Hopefully this changes by the time I go back down in mid-august.

That flow is still there, and still nothing for MIA or FLL in terms of moisture since that big drenching a few weeks back. Odd shower here and there but it's brutally dry.

If this easterly flow would go slack or even just lessen, we'd get more rain. But no. I feel like every day since June 1 it's been winds ESE at 15 knots.

It looked like today was going to be a slack day earlier, but nah, it's 8:15AM and I already see branches outside bending to the easterly flow.

The east to southeast wind pattern has been so dominant. Perhaps the ridge finally breaks down in the long-range based on the latest global model runs. Haven’t seen storms move in on SW wind flow since beginning of June. It is a bit unusual this pattern we are seeing, normally you get a few days here and there with SW winds and huge storms over the east coast, not this year so far. It has basically been a dry, dusty desert outside of a handful of big rainfall days. Cross our fingers there are no hurricane season implications with this pattern once we head into late Aug and Sept.

gatorcane wrote:The east to southeast wind pattern has been so dominant. Perhaps the ridge finally breaks down in the long-range based on the latest global model runs. Haven’t seen storms move in on SW wind flow since beginning of June. It is a bit unusual this pattern we are seeing, normally you get a few days here and there with SW winds and huge storms over the east coast, not this year so far. It has basically been a dry, dusty desert outside of a handful of big rainfall days. Cross our fingers there are no hurricane season implications with this pattern once we head into late Aug and Sept.

It's so weird to me. Even in most years with dominant SW Atlantic ridging overall, we'd usually see that ridge pulse back/forth/up/down every few days allowing for more variability in storm movement. But no, not this year. So far, almost all our rain has come from 1) an about-to-develop TS, 2) an upper level low (not even that much rain), and 3) a tropical wave.

Are those SW winds across South Florida I am seeing on the GFS for next weekend?!? Wow I can’t even remember what those are like.

Starting to see an uptick in 850mb vorticity off of the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana. With all the moisture in the northern Gulf of Mexico, it might be worth watching.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1557855526603476992