STORM2K

Friday Night-Sunday...Very cold and very dry Arctic air arrives,
bringing the potential for at least two nights of freezing
temperatures to most of east central Florida, with the exception of
the Treasure Coast counties and the Brevard barrier islands, who are
expected to hold just above freezing. Deterministic models and
blends remain in good agreement, though GFS MOS has been an outlier,
calling for temperatures around 5 degrees cooler than the rest of
the guidance. Ultimately, very little change to overnight
temperatures in this forecast, with only a couple locations
adjusting perhaps a degree cooler due to GFS MOS. Lows Friday night
into Saturday morning drop into the mid to upper 20s along and north
of I-4, the low 30s through the interior to Okeechobee and the Space
Coast, the mid 30s through the inland Treasure Coast counties, and
the mid to upper 30s along the Treasure Coast. Temperatures Saturday
night into Sunday morning are almost a copy-paste, just a few
degrees cooler in the southern counties, and freezing or near
freezing temperatures lasting a little longer, especially in the
northern counties. Afternoon temperatures remain chilly, only
managing to peak in the mid 40s north of I-4, upper 40s to around 50
through the rest of the interior, and low to mid 50s along the Space
and Treasure Coasts Saturday and Sunday. Very dry conditions, with
clear skies Saturday then cloudy skies Sunday.

LarryWx wrote:I'm still looking out for the possibility though still only small of wintry precip ~12/26-7 in FL, especially north, due to a combination of this historically strong Arctic high preceding that period, the cold being slow to modify, and above average uncertainties related to it being a highly anomalous setup along with a pretty complex pattern. There are two packets of energy that the models are harping on that would be in play for FL then and these are still way out in the relatively data poor Pacific. Each model run is still changing a good bit from run to run, especially at 500 mb, reflecting on the higher than average uncertainty.

chaser1 wrote:

LarryWx wrote:I'm still looking out for the possibility though still only small of wintry precip ~12/26-7 in FL, especially north, due to a combination of this historically strong Arctic high preceding that period, the cold being slow to modify, and above average uncertainties related to it being a highly anomalous setup along with a pretty complex pattern. There are two packets of energy that the models are harping on that would be in play for FL then and these are still way out in the relatively data poor Pacific. Each model run is still changing a good bit from run to run, especially at 500 mb, reflecting on the higher than average uncertainty.

Well Larry, I for one would find a little Florida dusting rather cool. Unfortunately, I'm just not seeing it happen at this point.

FlaWeatherDude wrote:The WPC forecasts Orlando to be 27 Xmas morning.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2cb888594a6feae25a0f25369b32e1729bb27376afbe6f5b5114bf10e6397fc.gif?w=800&h=519

gatorcane wrote:Looks like there will be a decent snowpack for this event:

https://i.postimg.cc/28npF4c3/gfs-asnow-us-16.png

NDG wrote:As usually the case the models' raw numbers have trended warmer as we get closer in time but MOS guidance continue to go down in most places. I still think forecasted lows for at least south FL are too cold because of the high cloud cover forecasted to move in.

Latest MOS forecasted lows for Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings.

Tallahassee: 18F, 17F, 19F
Jacksonville Int'l: 21F, 20F, 27F
Orlando Int'l: 28F, 33F, 39F
Tampa Int'l: 31F, 35F, 39F
Naples: 41F, 42F, 47F
West Palm: 41F, 37F, 45F
Miami: 46F, 43F, 52F