STORM2K

Metro Broward just got put under a Frost advisory

National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 6:00 PM EST

40°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
37°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
40°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
41°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
40°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
38°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
38°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
40°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
36°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
37°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead

Abdullah wrote:National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 6:00 PM EST

43°F 40°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
40°F 37°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
43°F 40°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
43°F 41°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
43°F 40°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
41°F 38°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
42°F 38°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
45°F 40°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
38°F 36°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
41°F 37°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead

Actual low temperatures this morning in red

Abdullah wrote:

Abdullah wrote:National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 6:00 PM EST

43°F 40°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
40°F 37°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
43°F 40°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
43°F 41°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
43°F 40°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
41°F 38°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
42°F 38°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
45°F 40°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
38°F 36°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
41°F 37°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead

Actual low temperatures this morning in red

Never fails, MOS guidance, which forecasters usually go by, is usually at least a couple of degrees cold biased.

NDG wrote:

Abdullah wrote:

Abdullah wrote:National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 6:00 PM EST

43°F 40°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
40°F 37°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
43°F 40°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
43°F 41°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
43°F 40°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
41°F 38°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
42°F 38°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
45°F 40°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
38°F 36°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
41°F 37°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead

Actual low temperatures this morning in red

Never fails, MOS guidance, which forecasters usually go by, is usually at least a couple of degrees cold biased.

Was there a significant difference between MOS and NWS this time around?

Tonight isn't going as they expected it to.

The minimum forecast for my closest weather station (KOPF) was 43 degrees tonight. The latest MOS guidance by GFS that I checked was 44 degrees.

It's already 44 degrees, and it's only 12 AM.

We'll see what happens, but given the cooling that's supposed to be happening tonight is radiational, we might be in for a surprise on the cooler side for once.

National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 8:00 PM EST

40°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
41°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
43°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
46°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
45°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
43°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
43°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
45°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
40°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
44°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead

Massive temperature gradient across the city of Homestead.

FAWN weather station reporting 36 degrees, with 34 degrees at ground level (and this place was forecast to only have a low around 40 degrees

https://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/station.php?id=440

Meanwhile ten miles to the east at the Air Reserve Base the National Weather Service weather station reported 49 degrees F an hour ago.

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On a similar note, FAWN Fort Lauderdale station in Davie suggests that the temperature there already dropped below 43 degrees (the lowest this year so far!) yet the NWS's weather station in KFLL a few miles to the east suggests 50 degrees.

East West gradient is appearing.

Abdullah wrote:National Weather Service Official Forecasted Lows tonight / tomorrow morning across South Florida as of 8:00 PM EST

42°F 40°F - KAPF - Naples Municipal Airport, Naples
43°F 41°F - KPBI - Palm Beach International Airport, West Palm Beach
44°F 43°F - KFXE - Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, Fort Lauderdale
47°F 46°F - KFLL - Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Fort Lauderdale
45°F 45°F - KPMP - Pompano Beach Airpark, Pompano Beach
43°F 43°F - KHWO - North Perry Airport, Pembroke Pines
43°F 43°F - KOPF - Opa Locka Airport, Opa Locka
44°F 45°F - KMIA - Miami International Airport, Miami
39°F 40°F - KTMB - Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, West Kendall
44°F 44°F - KHST - Homestead Air Reserve Base, Homestead

Actual low temperatures this morning in red

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I was very wrong lol
Radiational cooling stalled after 1 AM

Well at least a little cooler tomorrow. Front not really making it through S.Fl but over running will bring temps down to normal. End of week a little cooler as front barely makes it through. I'll take the cooler temps. No cold in sight. Our winter is past half time.

Our loyal and dependable friend the southeast ridge will be taking hold and running the clock out on winter. Meanwhile very cold weather will be entering the northern plains and spreading south and east but the ridge will play defense for us.

Have any of you seen flurries or snow showers at the Christmas cold or since down in south Florida?

The fat lady is warming up those vocal cords. This weekend's cold front has turned to not-very-much.....and when you start to see discussions like this, you know winter is very close to being over. I have seen years when we get strong fronts in March and April, with temps in the 50s as late as Easter, but I don't know that I'm really going to be betting on that.

".LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

With a large high, ridging will help maintain the warm and mostly
dry environment for our region. The weekend will begin with seasonal
temperatures and breezy conditions. With an easterly onshore flow,
there will be a slight chance for isolated showers across the eastern
half on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. However, the best
opportunity will be over the Atlantic waters. On Sunday, the
a warming trend begins to strengthen further with afternoon highs
moving above-normal with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

As we move into the late weekend and next week, the body of high
pressure will migrate easterly and followed by a surface low
advecting eastward. While a cold front begins to approach our
region, the ridging may maintain it`s strength and keep the dry
and warm conditions for the time being. Most ensembles, and NBM,
continue to favor the temperature warming trend with an
accompanying dry and stable environment. With the lack of frontal
passage, there is potential for high temperatures to reach mid-to-
upper 80s by mid-week, which are far above the seasonal low to
mid 70s."

Layman here

When will the Southeast Ridge go away?

What indicators will we have of this happening when it happens?

And is it possible for a cold front to be strong enough that it pushes the southeast ridge out of the way?

Abdullah wrote:Layman here

When will the Southeast Ridge go away?

What indicators will we have of this happening when it happens?

And is it possible for a cold front to be strong enough that it pushes the southeast ridge out of the way?

It's possible, just gets less likely after early February. The March 1993 Superstorm certainly did it.

Looks like florida is going to start preheating a month early.

Yup. Even next weekend cooler is 5 degrees. Texas and Tennessee gonna get ice storm. The SE high holding strong. Good news LA Nina on its way out after 3 years.

The pollen mean season has taken notice that it's making it's mark in the Tampa Bay area already.
My car was coated with it today, first time I have noticed it. Forecasted to be in the high range next week.
Are you all ready for the onslaught?

Looks like we have a short-lived cold shot coming this weekend......if you like it cooler, should probably enjoy this one while you can, since we are nearly at the time of year when you can't say with certainty there will be any more.

The forecast looks... pretty warm for the next two weeks. Immokalee could be seeing highs in the low 90s here and there, that place is always warm.

Perfect weather today in S FL. Low 70s with low humidity. However, upper 80s are a-comin' later in the week.

It looks like cold fronts will become just dry fronts here on out.