STORM2K

I say FL Peninsula Spring is here already, no signs of the NAO & AO going negative over the next 2 weeks, there's still a chance of going negative in March but by that time the sun angle will be much higher and the official meteorological spring would be here by then.

NDG wrote:I say FL Peninsula Spring is here already, no signs of the NAO & AO going negative over the next 2 weeks, there's still a chance of going negative in March but by that time the sun angle will be much higher and the official meteorological spring would be here by then.

I think so. I was thinking, and looking back at some of the temperature records for the Miami forecast office - I can't remember much really cold weather in February or March, yet in the old days well before I was alive, it seemed to happen pretty regularly. There are low temperatures for February and March, and even some April and November, that seem unfathomable now. I can't remember anything cold in March except for the wake of the 93 Superstorm. In my lifetime, the true cold snaps have been confined to December and January.

SE ridge is locked in. A long stretch of magnificent weather is underway with above normal temps and below normal precip.

Inland sections of the southern Peninsula get ready for potential 90s next week with an insane 596 dm ridge for this time of the year over us.
Edit: and central FL as well could hit 90.

The torch is on but I think will get a cool shot in early March. Looking at long range models and teleconnections it seems possible. Maybe normal or somewhat below. But something to watch

Now that we're safely past the freeze season we can safely cheer on late season cool snaps and just like magic the cpc 8-14 day outlook is finally working the cool side of the tracks. It'd be nice to cook up a squall line and hose the pollen down too. I'm thinking March could be interesting weather wise..

As some of you have alluded, mid 30 lows and mid 60 highs could be a thing again in about a week for Central Fla. The good news is that if converging global long range is right, South Florida will get theirs too! Jeez, I just want to have the strong northerly winds back to help kick out that nasty red tide over on the left coast

Always proceed with caution when the pattern has been persistently warmer than average for FL.
We will be lucky to get down to average temps at most in the 7-14 day range, but at least it will give my A/C a break during the nights. The last two days have felt like a late May day with highs at 90, but at least the humidity is lower than in the summer.

The Euro has had a change of heart for next weekend, not surprised.

Anything less hot would be an improvement. I'm also hoping we get some northeast surface winds as we have an outbreak of red tide in our coastal waters.

psyclone wrote:Anything less hot would be an improvement. I'm also hoping we get some northeast surface winds as we have an outbreak of red tide in our coastal waters.

I don't ever recall SW FL's gulf coast having such a bad red tide event during this time of the year.
I have a feeling that it has to do with Ian.

NDG wrote:

psyclone wrote:Anything less hot would be an improvement. I'm also hoping we get some northeast surface winds as we have an outbreak of red tide in our coastal waters.

I don't ever recall SW FL's gulf coast having such a bad red tide event during this time of the year.
I have a feeling that it has to do with Ian.

Ian didn't help and may have churned up the water to bring it to the surface, but its persistence this winter is due to the lack of cold fronts coming through after the big Xmas chill. We're not getting northerly winds to push it south and away from the coast. Good piece on it here at the WaPo:

https://wapo.st/3SR8wBA

The article should be free since I've gifted it from my subscription.

HurricaneBelle wrote:

NDG wrote:

psyclone wrote:Anything less hot would be an improvement. I'm also hoping we get some northeast surface winds as we have an outbreak of red tide in our coastal waters.

I don't ever recall SW FL's gulf coast having such a bad red tide event during this time of the year.
I have a feeling that it has to do with Ian.

... Good piece on it here at the WaPo:

https://wapo.st/3SR8wBA

Thank you for this link. The last few sentences are depressing. "Red tide blooms going through spring and into summer are generally a 1 in 12-year event, he said. There have been two such events in the last five years."

It's interesting that red tide is so severe despite the dry conditions. When the rains do arrive, we have months worth of nutrients waiting to runoff. My hope is we get some good seasonal high pressure systems off the mid Atlantic to induce strong east winds to push the blooms and dead fish offshore. Late March through mid May often produce such weather. For my immediate area, 2005 was the worst red tide...the recent blooms have focused south of here. Hopefully we get some differing weather to shake things up a bit..

psyclone wrote:It's interesting that red tide is so severe despite the dry conditions. When the rains do arrive, we have months worth of nutrients waiting to runoff. My hope is we get some good seasonal high pressure systems off the mid Atlantic to induce strong east winds to push the blooms and dead fish offshore. Late March through mid May often produce such weather. For my immediate area, 2005 was the worst red tide...the recent blooms have focused south of here. Hopefully we get some differing weather to shake things up a bit..

That was my point that despite being a very dry winter and shallow coastal waters still being relatively cool we are seeing such a large Red Tide bloom that has been persistent ever since Ian in the Fort Myers area and now has spread north towards the Tampa Bay area, this will not be a good sign once the water warms up during the spring.
I have always said that the best time to see clear bluish waters in SW and central FL's gulf coast is during the spring after our dry winters.

FL has the worst climate of any of the 50 states.

We haven’t had rain in quite some time and we are now in a moderate drought let’s hope we get rain soon. I jokingly told someone in January we wouldn’t get rain until the end of May let’s hope that isn’t the case.

We did get a quick, heavy shower last night. I was very happy about that. Hoping the forecasted rain for Monday comes to fruition.

Lots of storms in the Panhandle and in Northern Florida, basically along I-10.

Next weekend will be chilly for mid-late March. 40s/50s for highs and light freezes outside the big cities.

With the oncoming Nino and lack of mid-latitude amplifying ridge, don't see any early season heat waves in the near future.

Looks like two big shots of cool air for Florida, one comes through tonight and into tomorrow and another next week. GFS with highs over SW Florida only in the 50s next Sunday. Seeing how much above normal we have been (91F here in Boca Raton today with offshore flow), these cooler temps are very much welcomed.