STORM2K

Despite a very cloudy and rainy Meteorological Winter over all FL will end up near average to slightly below average, if it wasn't for February temps would had ended up above average.

NDG wrote:Despite a very cloudy and rainy Meteorological Winter over all FL will end up near average to slightly below average, if it wasn't for February temps would had ended up above average.

I have trouble remembering what I had for dinner last night let alone how our weather was 4-6 weeks ago . I know that we're both here in the general Orlando area but I'm trying to remember back to this past January because I had thought that following a warm New Years, that our part of the state had a fairly cool month? Did our overall "cool-down" not actually begin until the end of the month?

There's no doubt, South Florida temps seem to have been basically mild for the most part with no extreme cold entering the state this year.... much less South Florida.

Very odd winter with lots of clouds, breezy to windy conditions, cool but without getting cold. Lots of hoodie firepit nights with no cover the plants nights is a tough balance bit it happened. I personally like it warmer but the warm fans have had a good run so something different was overdue. I do feel like we missed out on severe/convective threats. I was expecting a lot more rain, squall lines and severe risks. Of course we're still fair game for that between now and April but that season to date has been underwhelming..

Was thinking the same; where's all of our El Nino peak February Gulf squall lines? Seems like the current Nino has been the big nullifier when it comes to extreme anything (squall line, severe cold etc)

chaser1 wrote:Was thinking the same; where's all of our El Nino peak February Gulf squall lines? Seems like the current Nino has been the big nullifier when it comes to extreme anything (squall line, severe cold etc)

It is making itself known that Nino effects are holding on in mid-late March. A rare for March chance of heavy rains in Florida Friday with low pressure traversing the Eastern Gulf.

Speaking of.... check out the organizing low moving ESE coming in to the Cape Sable area. Upper Keys, Miami-Dade, and S. Broward looking pretty wet and getting wetter. Foreshadowing May/June event perhaps ?

This definitely a classic El Nino low. El nino effects not over yet. The planet still in phase. Like a figure skater spinning. Takes time to stop the spin around the globe.

Some good storms in SE FL yesterday......yet front still rolled on right through and cleared the state, even if it didn't cool things significantly. Crazy to me that every single front still has so much push, even in late April.

If that front had stalled instead, we might well have had an early start to the rainy season. The storms yesterday afternoon felt very summer-like.

This forum is dead. Any idea where all of our weather watchers went? They never tell us before they leave and I need an invite! Any who.. welcome to summer. Hopefully we get a more normal convective pattern this year and dodge the canes:)

Been very dry here in Vero Beach / Treasure coast area. Down more than 6" of rainfall in the local area and smaller lakes starting to dry up.
Looks like a pattern change could be setting up in the 10 day forecast as a chance of afternoon thunderstorms are showing up. Could be the start of rainy season,
at least let's hope so.
TG

Getting real dry here in Clearwater area, hoping for rain soon

StormPyrate wrote:Getting real dry here in Clearwater area, hoping for rain soon

Yes it has been dry as of late. In fact the retention ponds in my area haven't been this low since last Fall.
There is hope for this weekend for some moisture.

After a hot and largely dry remainder of the week, rain chances are supposed to be going up considerably over the weekend and into early next week, per this afternoon's AFD from KTBW:

MOVING INTO FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPS INTO FLORIDA, BRINGING A
BIT OF ADDED MOISTURE AND INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I4. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE
SOUTH, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, LOOKS TO
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
TELL THE SPECIFICS OF THAT SYSTEM AS OF NOW.

This appears bad?!!! Squall line seemingly coming through C. Fla now with what I see as broad rotation at the point of moving into Lake Mary to Orlando area. Batton down the hatches

Finally broke a dry spell dating back to April 11 here. Nice to have some rain cooled air. The heat is definitely on and the extended outlooks are running on the warm side of normal...which is already hot

psyclone wrote:Finally broke a dry spell dating back to April 11 here. Nice to have some rain cooled air. The heat is definitely on and the extended outlooks are running on the warm side of normal...which is already hot

What's your take on "rainy season"? In spite of a few recent frontal trough induced lines of T'Storms & brief rains here in the Orlando area, I wouldn't raise the checkered flag and anoint that the rainy season has arrived. S. Florida certainly hasn't seen any significant uptick either. I have to admit, a month or two ago I was anticipating that Florida would see the rainy season arrive early. With this early heat though, it does make me wonder whether we'll have a similar summer pattern as last year? No complaints here in my neck of the woods but I recall some of you W. Coast folks weren't all too happy with it.

From Don Sutherland, this is amazing:

“Yesterday, Fort Lauderdale had a minimum temperature of 85°. That set a new May record and tied the all-time mark. All three prior cases had occurred in August.

Fort Lauderdale's 85F Low Temperatures:
August 11, 1915
August 2, 1936
August 11, 1941
May 14, 2024

The average minimum temperature in May has warmed dramatically from 70.1° during 1961-1990 to 73.2° during 1991-2020. Excessive ocean warmth has played an important role, with climate change having increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of marine heatwaves.”

 Key West has had 5 of the last 8 days with record high mean temps for the date (tied or broken), including the last 3. (Records go all of the way back to 1872):

5/7/24: 83.5 tie

5/10/24: 84.5 broken (old record 84.0)

5/12/24: 84.5 broken (old record 84.0)

5/13/24: 85.5 tie

5/14/24: 88.0 broken (old record 87.0 (2019))

 The 88.0 of 5/14/2024 is the earliest in the season mean that warm by 22 days! The prior warmest mean on any May day was 87.0 (5/14/2019 and 5/22/2023).

 These record high means always occur with little or no rainfall to allow especially the mins to be warm enough (little or no rain-cooled air). Key West has had an extremely dry May so far with only 0.03” and no measurable rain the last 10 days:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=key

This dryness is helping the nearby buoy water temps to steadily rise into what is likely record warmth for the date. Yesterday it was as high as 87.4! Last year’s KW buoy warmest water temp on May 14th was 2.8 cooler at “only” 84.6:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=kywf1

Summer has escalated quickly in SFL, very quickly. Rainy season, the dewpoint has been over 70 for a while now, but I feel like it's still a pre-rainy season state. Kinda figured we'd be cranking by now.

I really, really hope it's not one of these summers where the heat and humidity at the lower levels is brutal, but elsewhere in the atmosphere "instability is lacking." I really hate those summers.