STORM2K

As we close out the month of June, 2007, it's time to turn our attention to the coming monsoon (or nonsoon, as it may be) season. The remaining days of June look to be scorching dry here in the valley of the sun, but there will come a day when thunderstorms appear on the eastern horizon and began their annual migration westward.

Here's a good place to discuss your thoughts on what it may be, when it might arrive, and once it does, the impact on local and regional conditions.

My thoughts are posted elsewhere but I can't tell you where.

Steve

Now, this apparently could put an end to the monsoon for good!! Then how could we ever have a "NONsoon season?"

Weather Service may drop 'monsoon' name
Associated Press
Jul. 10, 2007 03:30 PM

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service are considering renaming the annual weather event known as the monsoon to better reflect the dangers of the sometimes violent storms.

The high humidity and afternoon thunderstorms associated with the annual summertime flow of tropical moisture into Arizona could instead be renamed "summer thunderstorm season" and run from June through September, officials said.

Tony Haffer, meteorologist in charge of the NWS bureau in Phoenix, said the word "monsoon" may be getting in the way of warning people about potentially dangerous weather conditions.

Instead, the term "monsoon" has spawned an annual analysis of temperature and humidity and projections for the official "start" of the season.

"It's confused the average person," Haffer admitted Monday. "We want to rethink the way we're doing things."

The new thunderstorm season would be similar to the Atlantic hurricane season, designated as a stretch from June 1 to November 30.

"Of course, you can have hurricanes outside of hurricane season and, of course, you can have thunderstorms outside thunderstorm season," Haffer said. "So, it's OK."

The weather service currently declares the monsoon in play after three consecutive days with an average dew point of at least 55 degrees in Phoenix, with the first day of high humidity retroactively designated as the first day of the monsoon. In Tucson, the measure is 54 degrees. That, Haffer said, is an excellent indicator that tropical moisture has infiltrated arid Arizona.

If this week's forecast holds, Wednesday will mark the start of the 2007 monsoon.

Don't think that idea will work with the Public. They've actually come to associate the monsoon with violent weather (thanks to the media always calling the severe storms monsoons) whereas thunderstorms mean nothing to them. Then, of course, there's always the slight problem that Arizona's Summer thunderstorms are associated with the larger overall pattern of the North American Monsoon (especially down here).

Steve

55 degrees is a monsoon.. Geesh We call that a Canadian frontal passage down here.. Whatever they call it I hope it rains.

55 degrees is a dewpoint (and at 110F temperature can be sticky)-a monsoon is seasonal windshift which occurs at least in SE AZ rather noticeably (winter rains come from the SW, Summer rains from the NE-SE).

Steve

Dewpoints under 60 are suppose to be comfy..we won't see that here for a couple more months at least. It will be a major cold front to get us below 60.. 55 sounds dreamy but yea at 110F..lol..no thanks.

That 55 degree dewpoint is only the starting point. When the monsoon gets into full swing the dewpoints are usually in the 60's (except when there's a Gulf Surge from theSea of Cortez and then PHX can see dewpoints up into the 70's (with 80 degree dewpoints as far north as Needles and around Yuma and the Imperial Valley). Here in SV, we are at 4500' so dewpoints are supposed to be lower but we get much more rain than PHX during the monsoon so they are usually in the mid 60's by August. Highest dewpoints here have been in the low 70's. Dewpoints during the monsoon are what the perpetrators of the Arizona Dry Heat Syndrome don't want anyone to know. Nor do they bother to tell anyone that dry heat at 110+F temperatures is incredibly dangerous and that people die from it and quite quickly in fact.

Steve

A dew point rise of a few points, combined with temperatures even in the 90's here, is very noticable. I have seen dew points in the 70's, especially when a surge of low level moisture comes in from the south as a remnant of a tropical system.

And Steve is right, the dry heat is no match for the human body's resistance to it, particularly if you cannot hydrate yourself or otherwise have respiratory or other ailments.

We are about to take a tough new look at dust pollution as well. Living in the desert, what would you expect? But there are already very strict rules for construction and road work that require significant steps to limit dust in the air.

Leaf blowers are getting plenty of attention in the new law besides.

A leaf blower to me is the most ridiculous thing ever made-what happened to rakes and brooms? Besides blowing dust all around, all they do is make noise, waste gas and create air pollution. What do I use for leaves that come off the trees? An electric mulching mower. Mulching leaves makes for good fertilizer for the lawn and by retaining moisture I've reduced my lawn watering by 80%.

Steve

For the first time this summer, a tongue of humid air and a SSE to NNW flow aloft brought monsoon showers to the area. I recorded .15" in a brief nighttime downburst. Heavier amounts were noted elsewhere in Maricopa County. A soupy morning this morning with high humidity after the rains and clouds hovering over the desert floor.

I will be in Phoenix this upcoming Sunday through next Thursday (22nd - 26th), and am hoping to see a good old fashioned dust storm (haboob) while I am there. I have not experienced one since living there in 2002 and remember them to be quite an awesome experience.

Joe Bastardi hates the term "monsoon", as he believes what this really is is high level heat source thunderstorms, and not a classic monsoon like found in India.

He seems to be a purist.

Well how does he explain the very noticeable seasonal shift in the windflow which occurs and which a monsoon really is? He's not looking to the south and connecting the dots between the large scale monsoon pattern over Central America and Mexico and what happens here. Also he needs to focus on SE AZ which is where the best monsoon conditions occur. Certainly, the scientists and Governments who participated in the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) in 2004 think it's a monsoon. For starters, he needs to read the paper by Andrew Comrie et.al that appeared in the October 1997 BAMS (which is where I got the defintion of a monsoon that exists on an unnamed website).

Steve

I'm not sure what constitutes a "moist" monsoon season versus a "nonsoon" season, but here at the end of July, I get the feeling that this one has so far provided some significant rains across wide areas of Arizona.

And while the season still has plenty of time on the calendar, we are ending July with beneficial rains even here in Maricopa County and the Phoenix area.

We're hopeful it continues for a while, and of course, we still haven't seen that one or two tropical systems impact us out of the Baja much as yet either.

Keep your fingers crossed for continued nice moisture across the state!

Thanks to some decent dynamics (as opposed to a high level heat source) parts of southern AZ have done quite well rainfall wise. With the passage of an inverted trough we will be developing a good SE flow pattern and will need to keep an eye out for an acceleration in the flow (referred to as a monsoon surge by those who have worked with monsoons and something associated with true monsoons) which could bring more heavy rains to areas already saturated (have picked up over an inch of rain tonight).

Steve

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... r0731.html

and so it begins.....

here in NM as well. our little arroyo was transformed into a river 25 feet wide the night before last. we got over 3 inches of rain in just a few hours...

I picked up just .50" yesterday, but the area is already in for some more this afternoon and evening. Always seems a shame that so much of that water "runs off" and can't be captured before it either evaporates or soaks into the pourous desert sands. I suppose some of it eventually helps replenish aquifers.

I saw dewpoints into the mid-70's, so for those who think the monsoon still is a "dry heat," think again.

There are a number of sources for Arizona rainfall information from small backyard gauges like mine, but if you are interested in checking out some numbers, go to http://www.rainlog.org

Actually, if you poke your head deeper into the map, you can not only see the rainfall totals in very unique locations, but you can overlay with the topography and see where, within my back yard, right there by the pool, my rain gauge is located!

when we moved to NM, we got rain barrels to capture what comes out of the downspouts and use it to water plants later. it's amazing more people dont do that, especially in areas where water is such a valuable resource....

Good idea Alicia. And how is NM treating you? Beautiful country.