STORM2K

I'm back on Sanibel and see that there is a lack of rainfall here. The pond, which is normally filled at this time of year from the rainy season rainfall, is less than half way up the bank. Our wetland area in the front yard is dry enough to walk across dry. I've never seen that ever. By this time it is always a mucky pool. Over the mainland the normal wall of daytime thunderheads is missing under a high pressure dome. We've had hot, penetrating sun in blue skies giving us above average heat in the upper 90's. There's patches of dead grass in the yard.

To date: Normal rainfall - 32 inches So far: 21 inches

June average: 9.7 This year: 6.1
July: 8.9 : 6.8
August: 9.5 : .2


This could be an interesting test of the "Hurricanes find drought areas" theory...

Our drought was wiped out by that blob last week end.

Yeah we still got water in the ditches around here...Can't go outside after sunset...Skeeters will suck you dry....

No skeeters here and blustery for August.


PS- Love the neanderthal avatar!

Oceanic heat near SW florida will
probably be explosive by mid to late
august and it already is very high...
Any system moving over the
se gulf or south florida waters could
explode

The lawn is starting to dry now as it's been very hot with zippo rain in the last few days. The grass did get green but yes the ponds and waterways are very very low yet.. Some incredible lightening inland this evening. Everybody is complaining about the heat and I saw 91F gulf temp on the news tonight.

that temp is gonna fuel anything in the GOM...rapid intensification of
anything comes to mind.

Yes, that penetrating sun under the clear air of high pressure is cooking the Gulf to 91*. Rapid intensification wouldn't surprise me. But remember Ernesto last year. It had plenty of opportunity to intensify across the Gulf Stream in the Florida Straits but didn't.

Here on Sanibel we had a strong north wind yesterday from the high pressure over Florida. So that wind chill could offset some of the heat off the Gulf. Storms really brew down here when you have hot, humid, heavy still air. So, you can have everything set up right, but add that one negative like that strong wind and storms won't form. (which is good for us because I don't want our house blown away)

That High over us right now is going to shift east over the Atlantic by later in the week and bring the normal easterlies back to Florida. That should return the rainy season pattern and bring some rain.

Sanibel Island really suffers from this current pattern because, being offshore, it depends on those mainland thunderstorms being blown by the easterlies and over the island. With no easterlies the thunderstorms never make it and we go dry.

with that sal in the atlantic I think that would suppress
waves until they reach closer to the US so that
means homegrown storms like 2005 bahamas
development...uh oh....
With the water this hot and key wests record temps
I would not be surprised to see something close
to labor day 35 intensity form around florida
not saying it would hit land just saying look
at those water temperatures

Right now the Bahamas are under the same dry, stable High as the rest of the basin and I don't see any development.

5 minute deluge today.

Huge lightning display from thunderhead just south of island as I type (missed us).

Still no serious rain. HOT today too!