The forcast stinks ! WE need a gulf low
Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2003 5:14 pm
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA RADARS SHOWS THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND PROGRESSING
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SOME LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONT...AND WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HAS STEADILY BEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK OK FOR TONIGHT.
THE FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE AID OF
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SYSTEM FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST. AT THIS POINT IS THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN THAT MAY
RESULT IN A COLD SPELL SEEN ONLY EVERY 5 YEARS OR SO...AS IN
FEBRUARY OF 1996 OR DECEMBER 1989. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1290 AT MOB BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO FALL TO NEAR 1260 BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DESPITE RECOVERING THICKNESSES...THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING PORTENDS ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THANKFULLY THERE ARE NO GULF LOWS
FORECAST TO TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MEANWHILE. PER
COORDINATION WITH NEW/JAN/BHM WILL GO WITH LOWS OF 15-20 FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REASSESS TOMORROW TO SEE IF
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD WILL BE NECESSARY. BHM NOTED THAT WIND CHILLS
MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AS THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH BEFORE THE WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR 5 MPH LATER IN THE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE COLD
DOME/SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY
MANAGE TO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MONDAY...BUT AT THE
MOMENT THE DOME OF MODIFYING COLD AIR APPEARS TO STEER THE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE AREA.
MARINE...WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL ADD GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY PER
COORDINATION WITH NEW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE...NO CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY...DEW POINTS MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS RESULTING
IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB CI 056/060 030/047 020 292310
PNS CI 058/063 034/048 020 292310
DTS CI 058/064 038/050 020 292310
GZH CI 051/055 027/042 016 293310
2RO EI 048/051 024/040 015 293310
61A EI 050/052 024/040 015 293310
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND PROGRESSING
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SOME LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
FRONT...AND WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HAS STEADILY BEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK OK FOR TONIGHT.
THE FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE AID OF
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SYSTEM FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST. AT THIS POINT IS THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN THAT MAY
RESULT IN A COLD SPELL SEEN ONLY EVERY 5 YEARS OR SO...AS IN
FEBRUARY OF 1996 OR DECEMBER 1989. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1290 AT MOB BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO FALL TO NEAR 1260 BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DESPITE RECOVERING THICKNESSES...THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING PORTENDS ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THANKFULLY THERE ARE NO GULF LOWS
FORECAST TO TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MEANWHILE. PER
COORDINATION WITH NEW/JAN/BHM WILL GO WITH LOWS OF 15-20 FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REASSESS TOMORROW TO SEE IF
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD WILL BE NECESSARY. BHM NOTED THAT WIND CHILLS
MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AS THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH BEFORE THE WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR 5 MPH LATER IN THE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE COLD
DOME/SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY
MANAGE TO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MONDAY...BUT AT THE
MOMENT THE DOME OF MODIFYING COLD AIR APPEARS TO STEER THE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE AREA.
MARINE...WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL ADD GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY PER
COORDINATION WITH NEW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE...NO CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY...DEW POINTS MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS RESULTING
IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB CI 056/060 030/047 020 292310
PNS CI 058/063 034/048 020 292310
DTS CI 058/064 038/050 020 292310
GZH CI 051/055 027/042 016 293310
2RO EI 048/051 024/040 015 293310
61A EI 050/052 024/040 015 293310
