STORM2K

What are the predictions saying for severe weather events the next few weeks? I know September is not usually an active month for major outbreaks (unless it is related to a tropical storm or hurricane). There aren't many September or early October outbreaks that come to my head that didn't originate from a tropical system (last September 22 was one of the rare ones). Why is that? There seem to be plenty of cold fronts that can sweep down with cool air mixing with warm air in the late summer and early fall?

There is a ton of fuel in the Gulf of Mexico. Heat Content values are pretty high down there. Once the ridge breaks down in the Southeast and we start to see fronts progress farther south, the potential is there for some decent severe weather events. I have heard some comparisons thrown around to 2001 for Fall severe setup because of the dry and hot weather over the southeast and the lack of tropical activity in the Gulf.

The main reason why severe outbreaks aren't as significant in September is because there isn't as much cold air diving down. While fronts coming down can provide a bit of a kick there is usually not the wild swings in temperature in the Midwest that one can expect in later October and early November. These contrasts can fuel stronger storm systems in the Midwest and increase the late-season potential for severe weather outbreaks.