STORM2K

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/ ... ab_newstab

Chances of some measurable precip end of the week.

Y'all are -16.27" below normal since Jan. 1. I hope you'll get your much needed precip this weekend.

If anyone else is curious, I found this info at http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ffc

Just have your PFDs and rafts ready..Because somebody is gonna need them when that drought breaks..

81 days of water left!
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/weather/10/1 ... index.html

.01 inches of rain yesterday at Hartsfield in Atlanta plus a little rain in the overnight hours. Southern parts of Georgia got drenched along with the entire Northeastern Gulf Coast region. All that convection in the Gulf Coast areas really robbed us of more appreciable rainfall. Hopefully the setup for next week will pan out. I like the idea of that cut off low sitting out in the plains setting up SW flow for a few days.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif

Concerning the 81 day water supply for Atlanta. They can get more water after that from Lake Lanier. Info here- http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/ ... ab_newstab

Hey Aquawind looks like Alabama and FL. panhandle could use those rafts and PFDs.

ga_ben wrote:.01 inches of rain yesterday at Hartsfield in Atlanta plus a little rain in the overnight hours. Southern parts of Georgia got drenched along with the entire Northeastern Gulf Coast region. All that convection in the Gulf Coast areas really robbed us of more appreciable rainfall. Hopefully the setup for next week will pan out. I like the idea of that cut off low sitting out in the plains setting up SW flow for a few days.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif

Concerning the 81 day water supply for Atlanta. They can get more water after that from Lake Lanier. Info here- http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/ ... ab_newstab

Hey Aquawind looks like Alabama and FL. panhandle could use those rafts and PFDs.

Well South Alabama. What a disappointment this system was for the northern half of the state. Quarter inch or less and some places got nothing at all. Optimistic but not getting my hopes up for rain next week.

Drought breaker coming up?

From Birmingham:

CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS NOW SHIFTED
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH OVER RUNNING RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. AS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INCHES DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS OF MONDAY...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. INSTABILITIES ARE
NOT PARTICULAR GREAT...SO REALLY DOWN PLAYING THE THREAT. AS THE
FRONT INCHES SLOWLY ACROSS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...WRAP AROUND RAINS WILL
PLAGUE THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.



FFC is concerned about dry slots over Georgia however.

OVERALL...AND AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...DESPITE THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO US...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER FOR OUR CWA. IT
RAPIDLY BECOMES A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM...CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN
FLOW...MEANDERING ABOUT THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A VERY LARGE AREA OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE S AND E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

and after this system it's going to be very fall-like. NWS only predicting 60's Wednesday-Friday for highs!

Ihope you get some beneficial rains before Nov. 9. We'll be in the Atlanta area for a wedding that weekend.

What kind of temps can I expect normally?

why does The Army Corp of enginners want to release that water to help endangered fish in Flordia when they had a foot of rain in that location just yesterday

vbhoutex wrote:Ihope you get some beneficial rains before Nov. 9. We'll be in the Atlanta area for a wedding that weekend.

What kind of temps can I expect normally?

Averages for November 4th is 47/67. Records are 24/80.

Looks like a large part of the area got .10-.20" of a inch of rain from the storm. That should add a few days more time.

From FFC about the Monday-Tuesday event, not promising:

AS EXPECTED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE CWA REMAIN VERY
QUESTIONABLE. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINING
WEST OF FFC CWA...MAINLY ACROSS AL/MS. THE GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS THE
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY...WITH LITTLE
MEANINGFUL RAIN AFTER THAT. THE NAM BRINGS THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA TUE...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.50 INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MEANINGFUL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN LOBE OF PVA MAY JUST MAKE
IT TO THE AL/GA BORDER TUE...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES BACK
TO THE WEST...THIS IS TRUE EVEN WITH THE NAM SOLUTION.

Local Birmingham station not looking optimistic either:

MODEL COMPS: The morning run of the GFS has the upper low further west again, which would keep the heaviest rain in Mississippi. The morning run of the NAM brings the upper low to the Mississippi River before shifting it back westward. Both these solutions would limit the widespread heavy rain. Both solutions would set up a gradient from west to east, with 1.5-2 inches over western sections to one half inch over East Central Alabama. How will it play out? We will just have to wait and see.

FORECAST RATIONALE: Southeasterly flow continues to pick up across the area through tonight. Moisture levels rise. Skies become cloudy this evening. Showers start moving north, reaching Central sections around midnight and increasing during the pre-dawn hours. Rain continues to increase through the morning hours, with rain likely by afternoon over Central Alabama. There will be embedded thunderstorms, but instability should be at a minimum, keeping any chances for severe weather low. As the low moves to our north late Monday night into Tuesday, it will push a cold front into the area. Rain will continue behind the front into Tuesday, gradually diminishing late in the day. Expect drying conditions by Wednesday.

and apparently the very cool temperatures on Tuesday/Wednesday are gone.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/ ... _1101.html

Hmm. . . This plan still has to win approval from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Brilliant! Government at its best.