STORM2K

Posted: **Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:33 pm**

Interesting mention from the SPC. Not quite sure what to make of it.

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A POSSIBLE SEVERE EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION SUN. NOV. 25 /I.E. DAY 5/. THE ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND THUS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE SURFACE
LOW. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A MOIST GULF WARM SECTOR SHOULD
WORK ONSHORE DURING THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD FROM THE
WRN GULF. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED BUT
POSSIBLY HIGHER-END SEVERE EVENT.

Posted: **Wed Nov 21, 2007 1:26 pm**

That does make sense with a coastal low coming that way from off the S TX coast. The warm sector could make it onshore, as they said, and set this scenario up.

Posted: **Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:20 pm**

Not so sure how to make this one out. What a nightmare it would be as people come home after Thanksgiving...

Posted: **Fri Nov 23, 2007 12:28 pm**

...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE MID SOUTH...

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION TO SLY LLJ OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY CNTRL GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT WITH AIR MASS BECOMING AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT NEWD
ADVANCEMENT OF SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
OCCURRING OVER CNTRL/SRN LA INTO MS...AL AND EVENTUALLY THE FL PNHDL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERTICAL SHEAR...BOTH DEEP LAYER AND IN THE LOW LEVELS...WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS EXPANDING WARM SECTOR WITH
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

Posted: **Fri Nov 23, 2007 12:48 pm**

Looks like I will be in the warm sector Sunday. Wild weather ride the past few days. Upper 70's earlier in the week, cold Thanksgiving day then possible severe Wx Sunday....hold on to your hats.....MGC

Posted: **Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:05 pm**

Mobile,AL NWS wrote:.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STORMY LATE WEEKEND WEATHER PICTURE IS ON THE HORIZON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR...INITIALLY...LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
ZONES AND OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCREASING WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE

Posted: **Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:25 pm**

Yep..looks like Sunday will be the best day for severe wx...looks like a high end threat too...we all need to keep a close look at this

Posted: **Fri Nov 23, 2007 5:27 pm**

MDT Day 2 you think?

Posted: **Sat Nov 24, 2007 4:17 pm**

Ok time for weather...Im tired of this paper im writing!!...Looks like a couple rounds of severe.wx..first when the warm front reaches the coast overnight tonight, then with the squal line with the front Monday morning...

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:38 am**

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN LA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER TX...AND A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD SW LA. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 12:35 pm**

again, Im gonna offer svr weather alerts by PM for the rest of today. request by PM

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 1:18 pm**

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:48 pm**

It has just been raining lightly here today. But, looking at the New Orleans radar, a band of heavy rain with some imbeded thunderstorms are moving my way. Looks to be a very rainy evening and overnight period here on the MGC.........MGC

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:01 pm**

MGC wrote:It has just been raining lightly here today. But, looking at the New Orleans radar, a band of heavy rain with some imbeded thunderstorms are moving my way. Looks to be a very rainy evening and overnight period here on the MGC.........MGC

I hear ya MGC...right now just some popcorm showeres off the Florida Panhandle coast with the warm front pushing onshore...worst of the weather should be overnight...everyone should have the NOAA radio or tv on tonight just in case

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:02 pm**

Currently heavy rain and plenty of lightning popping. At the rate the storms are moving off to the NE they should clear my location by midnight or so. Hopefully they will continue into Alabama and Georgia where the rain could be used.....MGC

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:16 pm**

Just been cloudy here all day, but looking at that radar ivanhater has posted it looks like we're in for a stormy night ahead.

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:22 pm**

Opal storm wrote:Just been cloudy here all day, but looking at that radar ivanhater has posted it looks like we're in for a stormy night ahead.

Yep Opal...rainshield is on the Florida border...should start raining in abou an hour with the bad storms occuring overnight

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:46 pm**

Take a look at that squall line south of Biloxi, we might be getting that in a couple of hours or so if it holds together.

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:51 pm**

Actually looks like its getting stronger..should hold together as the warmfront continues to make its way onto the coast...

Posted: **Sun Nov 25, 2007 8:53 pm**

also a special marine warning with the squal...should promt a severe thunderstorm warning when it moves ashore

STORM2K

Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast

Re: Possible Severe Wx Nov 25. - Central Gulf Coast