STORM2K

12Z GFS from PSU

Meteogram from wxmaps.org


These links are good until the 0Z run happens, then they'll show that, which, if the school kids of NYC are lucky, will continue to show a 3 day weekend!

I used to live on Long Island. Lived in Massapequa, but went to St. Martin of Tours in far SW Suffolk County, and I loved snow days.



Of course, as many LI school children know, especially in December before the Atlantic has cooled properly, all the 540 dm thicknesses and 850 mb freezing lines in the world mean nothing if the winds get too much of an Easterly component, but I am cautiously optimistic.

BTW, I have been accused of w!shcast!ng during hurricane season, which I vigorously deny.

I also believe that my amateur forecasts for winter weather in NYC and/or SE Texas would never be affected by what I wish for, but I will admit, that while a major hurricane hitting Houston could cause serious damage to my house and a major, long lasting disruption of my lifestyle, and is not wanted, winter weather events are a wonderful thing, as long as one doesn't have to drive.



And, as mentioned in the Texas arctic outbreak thread, there is a limit to what kind of cold I want. Nothing colder than mid 20sF that might damage citrus or break water pipes.

Good thing for ~PHL northward is that they appear to be far enough north of this low - which the GFS has been relatively consistent with for almost two days now - to be getting all snow.

Of course, at a week out, don't place any bets on the QPF amounts or the exact positioning/timing of the system, but it has been showing this weak, moisture-laden low rolling through the Mid-Atlantic in some form or another for well over a day now.

Anyone north of the VA/NC border or so should probably keep an eye on this . . . even in VA, could be quite the icy mess.

No snow, heck, it's 64 degrees, but it's windy thats for sure.

20mph sustained, gusts over 30, maybe near 40.

Latest models see a change to rain on the island. But I never give up hope.

Cold front sure made a difference to your west Cat 5. Temps are only in the lower to middle 40's after spending all day yesterday in the upper 50 and lower 60's.

12Z GFS (this is a link that will show tomorrow's GFS run, not today's, tomorrow, except, of course, then tomorrow will be today) hates the Catholic school children of Long Island, and says they have to go to school Monday.